Cubs vs. Diamondbacks: Game 1, prediction, odds and picks - March 27, MLB 2025

Chase Field will be filled to the rafters on Thursday when the Chicago Cubs and Arizona Diamondbacks open their extended four-game series. The North Siders failed to show in the Tokyo Series, losing both games to the Dodgers, who should have Craig Counsell's troops determined to get into the win column this evening.

The chore won't be easy, however. Not with the Snakes sending staff ace Zac Gallen to the bump to square off against Justin Steele, who will already be making his second start of the year. Both teams missed out on postseason play last year, but oddsmakers have each lined as short favorites to punch tickets in 2025, which brings even more to the table for this non-divisional series.

Cubs vs. Diamondbacks recent form and records

Chicago laid a major egg in Tokyo, scoring four runs through two games against the Dodgers' pitching staff with 11 hits and 4 RBIs. Per MLB.com, the pitching staff racked up 18 strikeouts but also issued 15 walks. Both starting pitchers were only allowed to go four innings, so it'll be interesting to see the type of leash Steele has tonight.

Like the Cubs, the Snakes produced a winning 17-14 record throughout Spring Training, with 12 of those wins coming in their home ballpark. The D-backs ripped the cover off the baseball, slashing .279/.358/.430/.788 while launching 30 home runs and plating 175 RBIs. The pitching staff held up as well, throwing to a collective 4.81 ERA and registering a league-high 225 strikeouts. Unfortunately, the unit also doled out a league-high 112 walks!

Players to Watch

Starting Pitchers

Justin Steele (0-1, 11.25 ERA)

• Steele went 2-2 with a 2.87 ERA with 71 K and 15 BB over 207.0 IP on the road in 2024
• He's 0-2 with a 4.08 ERA and 36:8 K/BB ratio in 5 career starts against the D-backs
• He gave up 9 hits and 5 ER in 4.2 IP with 6 K and 2 BB against Arizona last season

Zac Gallen (14-6, 3.65 ERA in 2024)

• Gallen went 8-3 with a 3.36 ERA with 90 K and 25 BB over 83.0 IP at home in 2024
• He's 3-1 with a 2.60 ERA and 38:16 K/BB ratio in 6 career starts against the Cubs
• He gave up 3 hits and 0 ER in 5.0 IP with 4 K and 6 BB against Chicago last season

Must-Watch Hitters

Chicago

Based on current BVP data, Cubs hitters don't have much success against Gallen. However, Kyle Tucker is an outlier, going 4-for-13 with two extra-base hits. Chicago's prized offseason acquisition nearly went deep in his final at-bat in Tokyo, and I expect that momentum to carry over into the opener of this series. At +550 to hit a home run tonight and +185 return to tally his first RBI of the year, there's value to be had backing him.

Arizona

A handful of Diamondbacks have hit Steele pretty well. None more so than Gabriel Moreno, who clocks in an eye-opening 7-for-8 against the left-hander with four singles and three doubles. He's also one of only a few not to have gone down on strikes against Chicago's starter. His player props are a bit chalky because of it, but his 3+ total bases prop is interesting at +310, just in case the trend continues.

Cubs vs. Diamondbacks Baseball Betting Odds

Thursday 3/27	Money Line	Run Line	Total Runs
Chicago Cubs	+110	+1.5 -198	O 8.5 -102
Arizona Diamondbacks	-130	-1.5 +164	U 8.5 -118

Cubs vs. Diamondbacks expert picks and game prediction

MLB bettors don't appear to be buying into Arizona, the prohibitive favorite to win this game. The Diamondbacks opened heavy -150 chalk to win the season opener at DraftKings Sportsbook, but the odds have done nothing but shorten up for the Cubbies since.

These teams split their six 2024 meetings, with the road team winning both series. They under cashed in five meetings with an average of 8.2 runs scored per game. This rivalry has recently been dominated by both pitching staffs, and I expect more of the same in tonight's home opener for the Snakes.

• Money Line: +110
• Run Line: +1.5 -198
• Total Runs: Under 8.5 -118

Cubs vs. Diamondbacks Prediction: Chicago Wins