Giants vs. Padres: Game 1, prediction, odds, injuries and picks

The San Diego Padres will attempt to snap a four-game losing streak on Monday when they welcome the division rival San Francisco Giants into Petco Park for the first of a pivotal three-game set.

A terrific pitching matchup is set for the series opener, with Logan Webb facing off against Nick Pivetta. With both starters ranking among the league's best in ERA, oddsmakers are forecasting a low-scoring battle, posting the lowest total on the board for the day.

Giants vs. Padres recent form and records

San Francisco

The Giants took a brief half-game division lead over the Dodgers after scoring the series win at home against the Texas Rangers over the weekend. A solid feat considering the defending champs got out to an 8-0 start to their season.

The Giants' surprising early-season success finds Bob Melvin's squad representing the most lucrative bet in all of baseball. Sitting 19-10 overall, San Francisco has added $712 worth of profit to their backers' bankrolls, with $435 of that coming on the road, where they've won 10 of 16 games.

San Diego

Injuries have turned the Padres' hot start into an afterthought with Mike Shildt's crew entering tonight's series opener losers of four straight after being swept at home by the Tampa Bay Rays.

San Diego has managed just three wins in its last 11 games, dropping them to third place in the ultra-competitive NL West. Still, the Friars have been profitable for MLB bettors, with a 17-11 record generating a $374 return, $514 of that coming at home, where they've won 12 of 16 games.

Injuries

San Francisco

Tyler Fitzgerald 2B Day To Day - Chest
Casey Schmitt 1B 10 Day IL - Side
Jerar Encarnacion RF 60 Day IL - Finger
Tom Murphy C 60 Day IL - Back

San Diego

Luis Arraez 1B 7 Day IL - Concussion Protocol
Jackson Merrill CF 10 Day IL - Hamstring
Jason Heyward LF 10 Day IL - Knee
Brandon Lockridge CF 10 Day IL - Hamstring
Jake Cronenworth 2B 10 Day IL - Rib
Logan Gillaspie RP 15 Day IL - Oblique
Sean Reynolds RP 15 Day IL - Foot
Yu Darvish SP 15 Day IL - Elbow
Bryan Hoeing RP 60 Day IL - Shoulder
Matt Waldron SP 60 Day IL - Oblique
Jhony Brito RP 60 Day IL - Forearm
Joe Musgrove SP 60 Day IL - Elbow

Starting Pitchers

Logan Webb (3-1, 1.98 ERA in 2025)

Allowed 30 hits (1 HR) & 8 ER with a 44:10 K/BB ratio in six 2025 starts.
Tossed 6.1 IP of 6 hits (0 HR) & 0 ER ball with 6:3 K/BB ratio vs. Milwaukee last start.
4-3 with a 2.90 ERA & 65:14 K/BB ratio in 37.1 career IP thrown vs. the Padres.
2-1 with a 3.13 ERA and 28:7 K/BB ratio in 23.0 IP on the road in 2025

Nick Pivetta (4-1, 1.20 ERA in 2025)

Allowed 16 hits (1 HR) & 4 ER with a 30:7 K/BB ratio in five 2025 starts.
Tossed 7.0 IP of 2 hits (0 HR) and 0 ER ball with 6:2 K/BB ratio at Detroit last start.
1-1 with a 5.40 ERA & 15:8 K/BB ratio in 13.1 career IP thrown vs. the Giants.
3-0 with a 0.45 ERA and 20:2 K/BB ratio in 20.0 IP at home in 2025.

Must-Watch Hitters

San Francisco

Though none of the five hits Willy Adames has accumulated in his last six games have gone for extra bases, his bat is one you should think about investing in in the player props markets.

The righty is 3-for-8 lifetime against Nick Pivetta, with all three knocks going for doubles. He also owns a 2:2 K/BB ratio against the right-hander. As an aside, his hits and RBI props are currently offering attractive plus-money returns for the series opener.

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San Diego

Due to a multitude of injuries, the Padres have been forced to install Gavin Sheets into the meat of the order on a game-by-game basis. Consistently batting cleanup, the lefty is slashing .275/.314/438/.751 with three home runs and 12 RBIs.

Not the output you'd like to see from your No. 4 hitter, but he could be in line to come up with a big hit tonight, considering how well he's seen Logan Webb in the past. Through eight career at-bats, Sheets is 5-for-8 with a pair of doubles and one strikeout. He's 11/1 to leave the yard in the opener.

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Giants vs. Padres Betting Odds

Tuesday 4/29	Money Line	Run Line	Total Runs
San Francisco Giants	-130	-1.5 +145	O 6.5 -120
San Diego Padres	+110	+1.5 -175	U 6.5 +100

Giants vs. Padres expert picks and game prediction

Tensions will be high when the Giants and Padres take the field to kick off this series. Logan Webb owns a career 3.71 ERA at Petco Park, but he allowed 15 hits and 5 ER across 12.0 total innings there last season.

After being swept over the weekend, expect San Diego to step between the lines determined to snap its current losing streak. Nick Pivetta has been filthy in his home digs, posting a 0.45 ERA while holding opponents to a .125 batting average. While the under is a strong play, the money line value resides with the home dogs at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Giants vs. Padres Prediction: San Diego Wins 3-2

About the author

Mike earned a Bachelor of Science in Human Biology from the University of Kansas with dreams of becoming an orthopedic surgeon and team physician. However, his career path took a different turn as he ventured into sports handicapping, writing, and editing.

While preparing for the MCAT, Mike applied to contribute to a site offering free sports picks, which proved to be a pivotal step. His success there garnered interest from larger platforms and startups. Despite his efforts, organic chemistry derailed his medical school ambitions, and he chose to shift fully into sports betting and fantasy sports content creation.

Over a 20-year career, Mike has navigated the highs and lows of professional sports betting. His experience spans working on a late-night sports talk radio show, covering the Chicago Rush in the Arena Football League, managing a content distribution company, owning and operating a vape shop, and creating one of the first profitable DFS affiliate sites—an endeavor that helped buy his current home.

When offline, Mike enjoys working out his green thumb, coaching his son’s sports teams, hosting tea parties with his daughter, and relaxing with his wife and friends. A die-hard Kansas Jayhawks fan, he also proudly bleeds Cubbie blue.

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Edited by Mike Rose