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MLB has seen an evolution when it comes to contract numbers. Before Shohei Ohtani and the LA Dodgers signed a historic 10-year, $700 million deal in 2024, the best contract in the majors going around was Mike Trout's 12-year, $426.5 million contract with the Los Angeles Angels, which he signed in 2019.
The likes of Bryce Harper and Aaron Judge have also signed $300+ million deals but a difference of around $270 million between Trout and Ohtani suggests a big change in shift in the free agency market.
One year after Ohtani's $700 million signing, Juan Soto, the prized free agent after the 2024 season, signed a record $15-year, $765 million deal. On Wednesday , Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the Toronto Blue Jays also finally came to terms on a 14-year, $500 million deal.
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This suggests the MLB has officially entered the era of mega-deals. These deals are now setting the tone for the marketplace in several key ways.
For instance, clubs are now locking in their stars with decade-plus deals. They aim to benefit from promoting team loyalty and fan engagement over a longer span.
Such whopping deals have skyrocketed future negotiations, especially for rising stars like Julio Rodríguez, Bobby Witt Jr. and Corbin Carroll. These budding stars could also see such mega deals coming their way.
One thing to learn from the Blue Jays and Guerrero Jr. deal is that the teams have become more aggressive in negotiating extensions before players hit the open market to avoid bidding wars.
Front office staff are now being tasked to smartly plan their payroll strategies so they can land long-term contracts and soften their annual tax hits. More so, the Dodgers have smartly used the deferred money system to their advantage as they continue to remain the biggest spenders in all of baseball. Other teams could follow this suit as well.
In short, Ohtani, Soto and Guerrero Jr. didn’t just sign contracts — they have put new benchmarks.
Who could be the next lucrative contract signee to follow Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s $500 million deal?
Every offseason, there is one player who captures an insane level of interest. Initially, it was thought to be Vladimir Guerrero Jr. after a fallout in contract extensions during spring training. However, the two sides came to terms this week, meaning those waiting for Guerrero Jr. to become a free agent might have to replan their next offseason.
The next big name coming up is Kyle Tucker. The Chicago Cubs outfielder is two years older than Guerrero Jr. but has the poise to earn a lucrative contract, matching the Blue Jays first baseman in the offseason.
Tucker's strong contract push is backed by MVP-level numbers in the 2025 season already. He is hitting .322 along with five home runs, three stolen bases and 16 RBIs.
Last year, if not for injury, Tucker's full-season projections could have even humbled Juan Soto's numbers.
The only downside with the 28-year-old is his injury concerns. However, if Tucker stays healthy and plays the entire 2025 season, his contract numbers will certainly take a leap from $400 million expectations to $550 million.
