Justin Verlander vs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Predictions for Astros vs Blue Jays - April 29th | MLB 2022

Justin Verlander of the Houston Astros on the mound.
Justin Verlander of the Houston Astros on the mound.

The prospect of a Justin Verlander vs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. matchup is a classic tale of experience vs. youth. One of baseball's most renowned quality veterans, who has defied father time at age 39, is slated to match up against one of Major League Baseball's young offensive prodigies. Here is a head-to-head preview of one of the most entertaining matchups to look forward to this weekend.

Justin Verlander Preview

Justin Verlander #35 of the Houston Astros
Justin Verlander #35 of the Houston Astros

Justin Verlander is a prime example of a power pitcher utilizing the tools talent and age have given him. The 2019 Cy Young Award winner transitioned seamlessly from being a five-pitch arsonist in his younger years to a predominantly two-pitch specialist in his later years, alternating speeds with his lethal fastball/slider combo. Justin Verlander has proven to be no less effective in 2022.

"More Justin Verlander Filthy Sliders." - @ Rob Friedman

His fastball still consistently reaches 95 mph with a reachback velocity of 97-98. His location has remained as dominant as it has ever been, though he can't work as deep into the later innings as he once did. His 1.73 ERA through 26 IP speaks for itself.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Preview

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. #27 of the Toronto Blue Jays swings at a pitch.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. #27 of the Toronto Blue Jays swings at a pitch.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has taken baseball by storm since breaking into the league in 2019. Since then, he's amassed 77 HRs to go along with a .290 career average in only two full MLB seasons and a pandemic-shortened season. Guerrero Jr. has exhibited growth from the start of his career to the current season. His 110 strikeouts in 2021 showed marked improvement from his 2019 rookie season that saw him record 91 strikeouts in 40 fewer games. This exhibits increased plate discipline, as his pull percentage has declined from 41% to 29% in the current season, driving most balls to center or right field.

"Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 9/6/2021" - @ Random Homers

His natural opposite field approach above demonstrates his increased patience at the plate. That's why he's averaged fewer walks than ever in his career. To further solidify this statistic, his OBP has also jumped from an average of .332 to .401 and .380, respectively. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s improved plate discipline resulted in a .311 batting average in 2021, a 50-point jump from his prior two seasons. He's followed up that improved discipline with a .309 average at the time this article was written.

Justin Verlander vs. Blue Jays Hitters

World Series - Washington Nationals v Houston Astros
World Series - Washington Nationals v Houston Astros

Verlander has struck out 24 of the 75 Toronto hitters he's faced throughout his career, with opponents posting a dismal .214 average in that span. Upon further digging, I discovered the 2022 Jays have fared even worse at a trenching .191 average with him on the hill. This includes limiting Vlad Jr. to a .166 average. Low opponent batting average is a trend we've grown accustomed to seeing for 16+ seasons from the Houston Astros’ ace.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. vs. Houston Astros Pitching

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. #27 of the Toronto Blue Jays
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. #27 of the Toronto Blue Jays

The Toronto right fielder was deadly against Houston in their most recent encounter between April 22-24, going six for 11, yielding a whopping .545 average. Against Verlander in that series, he went one for three with a double. However, that double remains his only lifetime hit (one for six) against the future Hall of Famer.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. vs. Justin Verlander: The Verdict

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. #27 of the Toronto Blue Jays celebrates his home run.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. #27 of the Toronto Blue Jays celebrates his home run.

I expect Guerrero Jr. to come out on top against his heat-hurling counterpart. Expect Guerrero to adjust with a big game in their next encounter. Justin Verlander will showcase his usual flashes of dominance. But I firmly expect the ever-learning youngster to come out on top the the next time these two meet. Vlad has a knack for exploiting a minuscule location mistake that we haven't seen since Barry Bonds.

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Edited by Jodi Whisenhunt
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