Mariners vs. Red Sox: Game 1, prediction, odds, injuries and picks

The Boston Red Sox welcome the Seattle Mariners to Fenway Park on Tuesday for the opener of an intriguing three-game set between the non-division AL rivals, with both teams sitting in second place in their respective divisions.

Brayan Bello will make his 2025 debut against Bryce Miller, who will be looking to bank a third straight win to even his record up for the year.

Mariners vs. Red Sox recent form and records

Seattle

Dan Wilson's Mariners enter this matchup red hot, having scored series wins in four straight after just taking two of three from the Blue Jays in Toronto. It's also taken both series on the current nine-game road trip, regardless of dropping the series opener in each.

The team's 12-10 overall record finds it $69 in the black for $100-per-bet MLB bettors, but sits a game under .500 on the road at 4-5, amounting to a -107 return on investment.

Boston

The Red Sox will step between the lines looking to secure a third straight series win after just taking three of four from the White Sox following their 4-2 Patriots Day triumph. Boston has clocked in 3-4 in series openers to date.

Though Alex Cora's squad sits two games over .500 at 13-11, the Red Sox have been a losing investment for their backers, costing them $83 overall. The team sits in the black at home, however, with a 7-4 record, producing $55 in profit.

Injuries

Seattle

Ryan Bliss 2B 60 Day IL - Biceps
Victor Robles CF 10 Day IL - Shoulder
Matt Brash RP 15 Day IL - UCL
George Kirby SP 15 Day IL - Shoulder
Jackson Kowar RP 60 Day IL - Elbow

Boston

Connor Wong C 10 Day IL - Hand
Masataka Yoshida LF 10 Day IL - Shoulder
Richard Fitts SP 15 Day IL - Pectoral
Kutter Crawford SP 15 Day IL - Knee
Lucas Giolito SP 15 Day IL - Hamstring
Chris Murphy RP 60 Day IL - Elbow
Patrick Sandoval SP 60 Day IL - Elbow
Zach Penrod SP 60 Day IL - Elbow

Starting Pitchers

Bryce Miller (1-2, 3.43 ERA in 2025)

Allowed 18 hits (1 HR) and 8 ER with a 21:10 K/BB ratio in four 2025 starts.
Tossed 5.0 IP of 3 hits (0 HR) and 0 ER ball with 8:2 K/BB ratio vs. Cincinnati last start.
0-2 with an 8.44 ERA and 10:4 K/BB ratio in 10.2 career IP thrown vs. Boston.
1-1 with a 3.48 ERA and 12:5 K/BB ratio in 10.1 IP on the road in 2025.

Brayan Bello (14-8, 4.49 ERA in 2024)

Allowed 157 hits (19 HR) and 81 ER with a 153:64 K/BB ratio in 30 2024 starts.
3-0 with a 3.63 ERA and 23:9 K/BB ratio in 22.1 career IP thrown vs. Seattle.
6-4 with a 4.81 ERA and 70:35 K/BB ratio in 76.2 IP at home in 2024.

Must-Watch Hitters

Seattle

A handful of batters have seen Brayan Bello's stuff in the past. None more so than Randy Arozarena due to playing with the Rays a bulk of his career. However, it's Cal Raleigh that player prop bettors should target in this matchup.

The Mariners catcher has gotten out to a blistering start to his 2025 campaign, slashing .244/.343/.605 with a team-high nine home runs and 16 RBIs. He's hit safely in five straight and stands 3-for-8 with two extra-base hits and a 1-3 K/BB ratio against Bello lifetime.

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Boston

It's been a rough go of it for Triston Casas as the power-hitting first baseman attempts to rediscover the stroke that had many pundits predicting a huge 2025 campaign at the plate.

Though he's had all kinds of issues against right-handed pitching, slashing .103/.187/.118, he's had success against Bryce Miller in the past, going 2-for-5 with a double and 1:1 K/BB ratio. Maybe he busts out of his funk tonight with winds expected to be headed out to right field at a steady 10 mph.

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Mariners vs. Red Sox Betting Odds

Tuesday 4/22	Money Line	Run Line	Total Runs
Seattle Mariners	+110	+1.5 -185	O 9 -110
Boston Red Sox	-130	-1.5 +154	U 9 -110

Mariners vs. Red Sox expert picks and game prediction

Let's buck the recent trend and ride the Mariners in the series opener at DraftKings Sportsbook. While the Red Sox seem to have rediscovered their mojo over the last week, the wins were tallied against a pair of losing ball clubs in the Rays and White Sox.

Seattle, meanwhile, has won four straight series against the Blue Jays, Reds, Rangers and Astros. It also has the advantage on the mound heading into Game 1. Bello doesn't deserve to be favored to win his season debut running up against an opponent gunning for a third straight win.

Mariners vs. Red Sox Prediction: Seattle wins 6-3

About the author

Mike earned a Bachelor of Science in Human Biology from the University of Kansas with dreams of becoming an orthopedic surgeon and team physician. However, his career path took a different turn as he ventured into sports handicapping, writing, and editing.

While preparing for the MCAT, Mike applied to contribute to a site offering free sports picks, which proved to be a pivotal step. His success there garnered interest from larger platforms and startups. Despite his efforts, organic chemistry derailed his medical school ambitions, and he chose to shift fully into sports betting and fantasy sports content creation.

Over a 20-year career, Mike has navigated the highs and lows of professional sports betting. His experience spans working on a late-night sports talk radio show, covering the Chicago Rush in the Arena Football League, managing a content distribution company, owning and operating a vape shop, and creating one of the first profitable DFS affiliate sites—an endeavor that helped buy his current home.

When offline, Mike enjoys working out his green thumb, coaching his son’s sports teams, hosting tea parties with his daughter, and relaxing with his wife and friends. A die-hard Kansas Jayhawks fan, he also proudly bleeds Cubbie blue.

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Edited by Mike Rose