Marlins vs. Mets: Game 3, prediction, odds, injuries and picks - April 2, MLB 2025

After erupting for 10 runs in the series opener, the New York Mets were held to a pair of runs in a 4-2 loss to the Miami Marlins on Tuesday. The series between the NL East rivals is tied at a game apiece heading into Wednesday's series finale.

Oddsmakers lined Clay Holmes and the Mets inflated favorites to come out on top of the rubber match, with New York attempting to claim its first series win of 2025. The Fish will counter with Connor Gillispie, who also took a loss in his season debut.

Marlins vs. Mets recent form and records

Juan Soto and the Mets have stumbled out of the gate for MLB bettors, starting 2-3 on the road, resulting in being down $147 overall for their wagering supporters. Slashing a pedestrian .147/.275/.346/.621, New York is only averaging 3.4 runs per game, which has seen the under cash in four of five played games.

On the flipside, the Marlins, a team that entered the regular season with a 63.5-game MLB win total, has won four of its six games at home, resulting in a solid $272 return on investment for $100 per game baseball bettors. The over/under has split right down the middle during that stretch, with Miami only averaging 4.0 runs per game.

Injuries

New York

• J. McNeil 2B 10 Day IL - Oblique
• R. Mauricio SS 10 Day IL - Knee
• F. Alvarez C 10 Day IL - Wrist
• F. Montas SP 15 Day IL - Lat
• P. Blackburn SP 15 Day IL - Knee
• S. Manaea SP 15 Day IL - Oblique
• C. Scott SP 60 Day IL - Elbow
• N. Madrigal 3B 60 Day IL - Shoulder
• D. Smith RP 60 Day IL - Elbow

Miami

• J. Sanchez RF 10 Day IL - Oblique
• C. Norby 3B 10 Day IL - Oblique
• J. Tinoco RP 15 Day IL - Back
• E. Cabrera SP 15 Day IL - Finger
• R. Weathers SP 15 Day IL - Forearm
• D. Cronin RP 15 Day IL - Hip
• A. Nardi RP 60 Day IL - Back
• E. Perez SP 60 Day IL - Elbow
• B. Garrett SP 60 Day IL - Elbow

Players to Watch

Starting Pitcher

Clay Holmes (0-1, 3.86 ERA in 2025)

• Holmes went 2-3 with a 3.00 ERA and 33:15 K/BB ratio over 33.0 IP on the road last year
• Holmes is 1-1 with a 3.60 ERA and 9:7 K/BB ratio in 10.0 IP thrown against the Marlins
• Holmes gave up 0 hits and 0 ER in 1.0 IP with 1 K and 0 BB against Miami in 2024

Connor Gillispie (0-1, 5.40 ERA in 2025)

• Gillispie went 0-0 with a 1.80 ERA and 5:2 K/BB ratio over 5.0 IP at home last year
• This will be his first-ever appearance against the New York Mets

Must-Watch Hitters

New York

It's been a rough go for the Mets offense overall, but Brandon Nimmo has caught fire at LoanDepot Park, going 3-for-8 with a single and two home runs and three RBIs. He's +475 to hit a third homer in three days and +120 to knock in another RBI at DK in today's finale.

Miami

Otto Lopez has gotten out to a rock-solid start for the Fish, collecting eight hits with two home runs and six RBIs through his first 23 at-bats. He's alternated big days at the plate with stinker over the last four games and went 0-for-3 last night. Play into the trend at DK and see if another big night is in store for the second baseman.

Marlins vs. Mets Betting Odds

Wednesday 4/2	Money Line	Run Line	Total Runs
New York Mets	-218	-1.5 -120	O 8.5 -110
Miami Marlins	+180	+1.5 +100	U 8.5 -110

Marlins vs. Mets expert picks & game prediction

The Mets hit the board -185 favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook to fend off the humiliation of losing this series to the Marlins. The odds have since been bet all the way up to -218. Sorry, but you should refuse to lay this type of chalk with converted reliever Clay Holmes on the bump.

Anything can happen in this crazy game of baseball, with variance at all-time highs once bullpens get involved. All the value lies with the home-dogged Marlins, so hit the home team on both the money and run lines and grab your popcorn.

Marlins vs. Mets Prediction: Miami Wins 4-3