Mets vs. Twins: Game 1, prediction, odds, injuries and picks

The New York Mets will look to take the first step toward winning their fifth straight series on Monday as they open a three-game set against the Minnesota Twins at Target Field. These teams have split their last six meetings dating back to 2023, with the home team going on to win each respective series.

A pair of 1-1 pitchers will get the starting nods from their respective teams with Clay Holmes and Joe Ryan each set to make their fourth start of the 2025 season.

Mets vs. Twins recent form and records

New York

Since dropping their opening series of the year in Houston, Carlos Mendoza has seen his squad rip off four straight series wins against the Marlins (twice), Blue Jays, and Athletics. It's resulted in Juan Soto and his teammates putting $161 worth of MLB betting profit in their wagering supporters' pockets.

The team has won five of nine road games played, but sits $42 in the red as visitors due to going off the board favored in six of those nine games.

Minnesota

The Twins entered the regular season as +260 choices to win the AL Central pennant for the fourth time in the last seven seasons. An ugly 5-11 start to the campaign now finds them offering up a +425 rate of return.

While most of their games have been on the road, Minnesota is only 2-4 in front of the hometown faithful, resulting in a $229 deficit for baseball bettors backing them in those contests. Overall, Minnesota has cost $100-per-bet MLB bettors $712 overall—the third-most in the league, ahead of only the Braves and Rockies.

Injuries

New York

Jose Siri CF Day To Day - Shin
Jeff McNeil 2B 10 Day IL - Oblique
Ronny Mauricio SS 10 Day IL - Knee
Francisco Alvarez C 10 Day IL - Wrist
Paul Blackburn SP 15 Day IL - Knee
Sean Manaea SP 15 Day IL - Oblique
Frankie Montas Jr. SP 15 Day IL - Lat
Christian Scott SP 60 Day IL - Elbow
Nick Madrigal 3B 60 Day IL - Shoulder
Drew Smith RP 60 Day IL - Elbow

Minnesota

Royce Lewis 3B 10 Day IL - Hamstring
Brooks Lee SS 10 Day IL - Back
Pablo Lopez SP 15 Day IL - Hamstring
Brock Stewart RP 15 Day IL - Hamstring
Michael Tonkin RP 15 Day IL - Shoulder

Starting Pitchers

Clay Holmes (1-1, 4.30 ERA in 2025)

Holmes has allowed 16 hits (0 HR) and 7 ER with a 20:9 K/BB ratio through three 2025 starts.
Holmes tossed 5.1 innings of five hits and 4 ER ball with a 10:3 strikeout-to-walk ratio against Miami at home last time out.
Holmes is 2-1 with a 1.74 ERA and 7:2 K/BB ratio in 10.1 career IP thrown against the Twins.

Joe Ryan (1-1, 2.65 ERA in 2025)

Ryan has allowed 12 hits (2 HR) and 5 ER with a 15:0 strikeout-to-walk ratio through three 2025 starts.
Ryan tossed 7.0 innings of two hits and 0 ER ball with a 4:0 strikeout-to-walk ratio at Kansas City last time out.
This will be his first career start against the New York Mets.

Must-Watch Hitters

New York

The Mets' offense is yet to hit its stride. Averaging just over 4.0 runs per game and batting .215 as a team, New York ranks out amongst the bottom third of the league in a number of pertinent offensive stat categories. It's slashing .208/.294/.357 against right-handed pitching, and Joe Ryan is one of the league's best.

Francisco Lindor has gotten out to another horrendous early-season start, but the All-Star shortstop raked two hits in five at-bats in yesterday's series finale against the Athletics.

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Minnesota

Offensive production has been lacking for the Twins, who are averaging 3.44 runs per game and batting .208 overall. As a result, the under has hit at an 8-6-2 clip, delivering positive returns for bettors. With only 11 total home runs amassed against right-handed pitching, it's no surprise that Minnesota hitters are offering inflated odds in the home run market at DraftKings.

That being said, Byron Buxton enters this tilt swinging a hot stick, having left the yard in two of his last three games. He's +425 to leave the yard and be the first to do so against Clay Holmes this season.

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Mets vs. Twins Betting Odds

Monday 4/14	Money Line	Run Line	Total Runs
New York Mets	+100	-1.5 +164	O 8 -102
Minnesota Twins	-120	+1.5 -198	U 8 -118

Mets vs. Twins expert picks and game prediction

Game conditions call for temps in the low 40s with winds blowing out to right field at 15+ mph. Not the greatest scenario for either pitching staff. Clay Holmes has received 8.0 runs of support in his last two starts, and Joe Ryan allowed a season-high four runs in his lone 2025 home start.

Though both of these teams have proven to be moneymakers for under bettors so far, buck the trend and look for enough runs to hit the board to exceed the modest run total at DraftKings Sportsbook. Also, look for the Twins to find a way to get out to the 1-0 series lead behind their staff ace.

Mets vs. Twins Prediction: Minnesota Wins 6-3

About the author

Mike earned a Bachelor of Science in Human Biology from the University of Kansas with dreams of becoming an orthopedic surgeon and team physician. However, his career path took a different turn as he ventured into sports handicapping, writing, and editing.

While preparing for the MCAT, Mike applied to contribute to a site offering free sports picks, which proved to be a pivotal step. His success there garnered interest from larger platforms and startups. Despite his efforts, organic chemistry derailed his medical school ambitions, and he chose to shift fully into sports betting and fantasy sports content creation.

Over a 20-year career, Mike has navigated the highs and lows of professional sports betting. His experience spans working on a late-night sports talk radio show, covering the Chicago Rush in the Arena Football League, managing a content distribution company, owning and operating a vape shop, and creating one of the first profitable DFS affiliate sites—an endeavor that helped buy his current home.

When offline, Mike enjoys working out his green thumb, coaching his son’s sports teams, hosting tea parties with his daughter, and relaxing with his wife and friends. A die-hard Kansas Jayhawks fan, he also proudly bleeds Cubbie blue.

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Edited by Mike Rose