$450,000,000 for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will be an overpay, per Red Sox analyst

Vladimir Guerreo Jr. will enter his final season under arbitration before becoming eligible for free agency in the next offseason. The Toronto Blue Jays are looking to lock up their superstar with a contract extension. However, with no extension currently on the table, the first baseman could be headed to another team.

MLB insider Bob Nightengale shed some light on the situation in his USA Today column, noting a significant gap between what Toronto is offering and what Vlady wants. He added that if the Blue Jays don't sign him, the Boston Red Sox are the frontrunners to acquire him. This situation is also one of the reasons why they are not pursuing Alex Bregman aggressively this year.

As per Jared Carrabis on the Underdog MLB podcast, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s ask of $450 million is steep for a player like him. Carrabis noted that while the Blue Jays haven't committed to a $350 million deal, the Red Sox offering $100 million more would be considered an overpay.

"Just to tie into the new report from [USA] Today, the Bob Nightingale reports, 'You know the Red Sox are not going to sign Alex Bregman because they actually want Vladdy next winter'.... Yeah, so the Blue Jays have thrown 350 at him and he wants 450, and even at that, like, it's like, do I want Vladdy on the team? Yes. Do I love Vladdy? Absolutely. Is it my money? No. Do I really give a [f**k]? Not really.... That's a [expletive] high number," Carrabis said (Timestamp: 39:46)

Bob Nightengale reiterates why Red Sox won't get Alex Bregman despite Alex Cora interest

It is widely known that Boston Red Sox manager Alex Cora was invested in bringing Alex Bregman to his team. The two developed a close bond during their time with the Houston Astros in 2017, when Cora served as the batting coach. However, according to Bob Nightengale, the deal is unlikely to materialize due to the current infield dynamics faced by the Red Sox.

"Boston Red Sox manager Alex Cora has been vocal in his desire to sign him, and the team has spent only $52.5 million. Yet, with Rafael Devers not wanting to move from third base, Triston Casas at first base, and Vaughn Grissom and top infield prospects on the way at second base, GM Craig Breslow is hesitant," Nightengale wrote.

Alex Bregman's contract projections are estimated to be around $175-200 million mark. The Red Sox have the capacity to afford him, as they were willing to pay $700 million to Juan Soto before he ultimately signed with the Mets. If Breslow and his management are indeed saving that money for Vladimir Guerrero Jr., they will need to prepare for a substantial expenditure, given their relatively modest spending on free agents in recent years.