"At some point, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will be Pete Alonso" - MLB insider deciphers Blue Jays’ contract hesitation

Toronto fans weren't happy when news emerged this week that the contract extension talks between the Blue Jays and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hadn't resulted in anything. Guerrero Jr. would be a highly sought-after free-agent first baseman after his contract runs down following the 2025 season.

While fans are blasting the Blue Jays for not agreeing an extension with their brightest star, one analyst had a different viewpoint and targeted Guerrero Jr. instead.

MLB insider Steve Phillips doesn't see Guerrero Jr. holding the same value as Juan Soto, who signed a 15-year, $765 million with the New York Mets this offseason.

"First of all, it’s clear the Blue Jays valued Juan Soto over Vladimir Guerrero Jr. because they prioritized pursuing Soto over Vlad Jr.," Phillips said on TSN (1:01 onwards). "The reality is that the industry places a higher value on left-handed-hitting outfielders with Soto’s skill set than on right-handed-hitting first basemen, even if they’re the same age."

Phillips compared Guerrero Jr.'s situation to first baseman Pete Alonso who settled for a two-year, $54 million deal with the Mets after a prolonged free agency in the offseason. That's why Phillips believes that the Blue Jays hesitated to give a deal desired by the first baseman.

"Wsaw how Pete Alonso was treated by the market—a 31-year-old right-handed power-hitting first baseman struggled to find traction and ultimately settled back with the Mets on a two-year deal with opt-outs after each season," Phillips added.

"Vlad Jr. at 26 is a different case, but at some point, he’ll be in Alonso’s position. Guerrero Jr. wants to be treated at 31 the same way he is at 26, and I don’t think the Blue Jays saw him that way. There was a disconnect in perceived value, and that’s why the deal didn’t get done."

Blue Jays would likely trade Vladimir Guerrero Jr. if they think they can't make the postseason, per Steve Phillips

The Blue Jays will have plenty of impending free agencies to evaluate before the MLB trade deadline in July. Apart from Vladimir Guerrero Jr., the Blue Jays also have to worry about the expiring contracts of Bo Bichette, Chris Bassitt, Daulton Varsho and Chad Green.

This puts the Blue Jays in a tough spot as Steve Phillips predicts that if they are not in contention to make the postseason by the deadline, they'll trade away Guerrero Jr.

"As the trade deadline approaches at the end of July, are they within striking distance of a playoff spot? Because if not, they have to trade him," Phillips added. "They can’t just carry him to the end of the year and settle for a draft pick unless they’re confident they’ll be a playoff team."

Not only Guerrero Jr., it'll likely be a fire sale in Toronto if the team isn't in a spot to make the postseason at the trade deadline.