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Hitting .400, as Miami Marlins hitter Luis Arraez is attempting to do this season, is an incredibly difficult feat in modern baseball. In the entire history (post 1900), only 13 players have ever achieved this feat. It's even more rare than a perfect game, which is among the rarest feats in sports.
The reason a .400 batting average is so difficult is because it requires a lot of luck. Hitting the baseball is so hard that a 70% failure rate is considered elite. There has to be a lot of lucky bounces or fortunate ball placements for a .400 batting average.
Through 2022, these players hit over .400:
- Nap Lajoie, .426
- Rogers Hornsby, .424
- Ty Cobb, .420
- George Sisler, .420
- Ty Cobb, .409
- Joe Jackson, .408
- George Sisler, .407
- Ted Williams, .406
- Harry Heilmann, .403
- Rogers Hornsby, .403
- Bill Terry, .401
- Rogers Hornsby, .401
- Ty Cobb, .401
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Don Padgett once hit .399 in a season as well.
Can Luis Arraez hit .400 this season?
Luis Arraez is chasing history with a .400 batting average and his second consecutive batting title, this time in the National League. One of those feats is very possible while the other is very unlikely.
Even as red-hot as he's been, he is only hitting .388 now. He was recently over the .400 mark but dipped below. He can't really afford that in a chase for a historical number.
Additionally, his expected batting average suggests he's been extremely lucky this year. He is leading MLB with a .388 batting average, but his xBA is just .333 (which is second in baseball to his credit).
That makes him the fourth luckiest hitter in baseball. Unless he continues getting lucky, even more so than he is now, the .400 mark is set to elude Arraez.
