Mets vs. Phillies: NLDS game 4 predictions, odds and picks — Oct 9, MLB 2024

On Wednesday, the Philadelphia Phillies will face elimination for the first time in the 2024 MLB playoffs. Despite winning 95 games during the regular season, Philly finds their backs against the wall in the very first round.

After a Nick Castellanos walk-off win in Game 2, home runs from Pete Alonso and Jesse Winker put the Mets up early in Game 3, and they did not look back. Game 3 was won by New York 7-2, and they have a chance to put the NLDS away with a win on October 9.

"THE METS ARE ONE GAME AWAY FROM THE NLCS. THEY TAKE A 2-1 SERIES LEAD OVER THE PHILLIES" - SportsCenter

Phillies vs Mets recent form and records

The Philadelphia Phillies finished the 2024 season 95-67. Save for the Los Angeles Dodgers, this was the best record in the NL. Although Philly finished with six more wins than the Mets, Philly's offense has not measured up this series.

The New York Mets are putting together a formidable run. After qualifying for the playoffs on the last day of the regular season, the Mets did away with the Milwaukee Brewers in a three-game Wild Card Series. Manager Carlos Mendoza's club was 93-69 in the regular season.

Players to Watch

Starting Pitchers

PHI: Ranger Suarez (12-8, 3.46 ERA) vs NYM: Jose Quintana (10-10, 3.75 ERA)

Suarez has a 1.201 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 145 K in 150.2 IP.

Last Start: Loss, 2 IP, 7 H, 6 ER, 2 BB, 2 K vs WSN

Career vs NYM: 4-3 3.52 ERA (53.2 IP, 21 ER) 6 HR in 16 games

Quintana has a 1.250 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 135 K in 170.1 IP.

Last Start: ND, 6 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 5 K vs MIL

Career vs PHI: 1-2 3.53 ERA (66.1 IP, 26 ER) 5 HR in 12 games

Must-Watch Hitters

Philadelphia

Bryce Harper appears intent on carrying his team through the postseason the same way he did on their run to a World Series loss against the Houston Astros in 2022. In addition to a homer and 3 RBIs in three games, Harper has posted a team-best OPS of 1.316 so far in the playoffs.

"BRYCE HARPER! BRAND NEW BALLGAME #NLDS" - MLB

Game 2 hero Nick Castellanos is 5-for-13 this postseason, leading his team in hits. A career .291 hitter against the New York Mets, Castellanos has 6 homers and 9 RBIs in his last fourteen playoff games.

Outfielder Brandon Marsh is still looking for his first hit of the postseason. Although he has hit just .233 in his career in the playoffs, the 26 year-old owns a career .303 batting average with 4 homers and 15 RBIs in 24 career games against New York.

New York

Though he is hitting just .211 so far in the playoffs, Pete Alonso has come up with some very clutch hits. Entering Wednesday with three home runs and six RBIs in six games, Alonso will be hoping to build on his career 1.050 playoff OPS on Wednesday.

"Pete Alonso brings the Citi Field crowd to its feet! #NLDS" - MLB

A .417 hitter in six games this postseason, Mark Vientos has been his team's best performer. Although he has struck out nine times, his ten hits lead the club. As his team's most clutch bat, there will be chances for Vientos to help his team further in Game 4.

Phillies vs Mets baseball betting odds

Wednesday 9/10	Money Line	Run Spread	Total Runs
Philadelphia Phillies	- 110	- 1.5 +150	O 7.5 -125
New York Mets	- 110	+ 1.5 -185	U 7.5 -115

Phillies vs Mets expert picks and game prediction

Despite the Phillies being - by nearly all metrics - the better team, the odds find themselves in an even arrangement ahead of Game 4.

Although Ranger Suarez had a better season on the mound, the Phillies pitcher owns average splits against the Mets, as does Quintana against Philly.

However, the Mets have been on quite the roll. Their 34 runs scored in the playoffs leads the entire field of MLB teams. The Mets have also hit .239, compared to .204 from Philadelphia.

A win will not come easy on Wednesday, but the Mets are hot. In the postseason, sometimes this is all that matters.

Run Line: -1.5 +150

Total Runs: U 7.5 -115

Prediction: New York W, 4-2