New MLB Bases: Will enlarged bases lead to more steals in 2023?

Rob Manfred announced a slew of changes coming in 2023, including new MLB bases. These bases will be slightly larger, going from 15 square inches to 18.

The idea behind the bigger bases is to promote steals. Stealing a base can be the most exciting play in baseball and it can also be a major game changer.

Unfortunately, in the analytics age, steals are seen as less valuable. The rewards generally don't outweigh the risk when stealing a base, so most players avoid even trying.

That base runner is too valuable to potentially erase on a foolish attempt to get into scoring position, so steals have slowly gone away. New MLB bases will encourage players to try again, at least in theory. Will it work, though?

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Will New MLB bases work in encouraging more steals?

Ultimately, it may be a while before steals become a mainstay in an offense again. Even with new MLB bases, everything is data driven. Until there's data on how many more successful runners are with the new bases, many teams will pump the brakes.

However, there will be players who steal anyway. There were players who stole bases last year with smaller bases. Jon Berti of the Miami Marlins stole 41 bases last year. He'll be attempting to steal at least as often.

The same is true for Baltimore Orioles duo Jorge Mateo and Cedric Mullins, who swiped 35 and 34 bases respectively. Players like Tommy Edman, Bobby Witt, Ronald Acuna Jr. and Trea Turner will keep running.

Stolen base attempts may go up with new bases

Once the data becomes available, teams will adjust with other players. In principle, the bigger MLB base makes it easier to steal and less easy to be picked off. That should translate to higher success rates.

Once teams learn this officially, they'll probably start sending more players. Not everyone is going to steal, though. Yasmani Grandal, who now has the lowest MLB sprint speed with Yadier Molina retired, won't be stealing.

Players like Aaron Judge, who has a moderate 27.3 feet per second sprint speed, might be willing to run more, though. He stole 16 bases. With new MLB bases, he might easily steal 20 to go along with 40+ home runs.