"This would be more like Shohei Ohtani' - MLB insider casts doubt over Japanese ace Roki Sasaki's future amid Dodgers signing rumors

According to numerous reports, Japanese pitcher Roki Sasaki is set to join the LA Dodgers, adding to their already great Japanese contingent which includes Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Ohtani, Sasaki and Yamamoto have played together before, as they were part of the World Baseball Classic-winning Japan side of 2023.

Only 23 years old, Sasaki is one of the most highly sought-after talents coming out of the NPB, with two NPB All-Star caps already to his name. Also, both Ohtani and Sasaski hail from the Japanese prefecture of Iwate. Sasaki's hometown of Rikuzentakata is about an hour's drive away from Ohtani's hometown of Oshu.

However, MLB insider Jon Morosi talked about the one major roadblock that may prevent the Dodgers from bringing in Sasaki this offseason.

"From what I've been told from sources internationally, it's still 50-50 at best that Roki Sasaki would come over to MLB this winter, because his club, the Chiba Lotte Marines, have very little incentive to give him up," Morosi said (1:26) on Tuesday, via MLB Network. "Why is that? Well, one huge reason why is unlike Yoshinobu Yamamoto a year ago, Sasaski is not yet classified as an international professional player that would allow him to get a contract on the order of Yamamoto's $325 million.

"This would be much more like Ohtani when he first came over, in the range of 3,4, maybe 5 million dollars, which certainly would mean robust interest across the industry, but not a very big posting fee for the Marines. So, for that ballclub, they have a vested interest in having him stay in NPB."

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Why allowing Roki Sasaki to go to the MLB in 2024 is not in the Chiba Lotte Marines' best interest

On the face of it, Roki Sasaski potentially leaving the NPB to go to the LA Dodgers in the MLB has all the makings of a perfect move. Sasaki has heaps of talent that the Dodgers can use in their pitching staff, and he gets a chance to learn and further improve his game alongside arguably two of Japan's best baseball players, Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

However, a huge incentive for letting their best players move on to the MLB is the cut the NPB team gets from their new contracts. It is in the NPB clubs' best interest to ensure their stars get the biggest contract available.

In Sasaki's case, he will be eligible for a rookie contract from MLB franchises. In case he stays with the Marines until he's 25, he would then be able to get a free agent contract, which would include a significantly higher pay package, and in turn, the Chiba Lotte Marines would get a much better return for their star.

With all the power ultimately with the player's current organization, it is tough to see them allow their highly touted talent to leave for what would be peanuts compared to the value he could generate two years from now.