"Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has a ton of leverage" - Blue Jays insider predicts $400,000,000 plus deal for Toronto's superstar first baseman

The Toronto Blue Jays re-signed Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to a one-year $28.5 million extension, avoiding arbitration, but are yet lock up the first baseman to a long-term contract. As per reports, the infielder has given the team a deadline till this offseason to ink a deal otherwise he will be headed to free agency next winter.

As per Blue Jays reporter Ben Nicholson-Smith, on the Baseball Isn't Boring podcast, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has the upper hand in the stakes against Toronto. That's because, without him, the Blue Jays lineup has very little offense to offer.

However Nicolson-Smith also pointed out that if the Blue Jays match up somewhere close to his expected amount, which should be around the $420 million mark, the 26-year-old should keep aside the leverage and take the deal without testing free agency next year.

"(Vladimir) right now has a ton of leverage. I think that if you look at this Blue Jays offense, this Blue Jays team, they really need him. Without him, it's like Will Wagner and Joey Loperfido at the heart of the order. They've got to find a way to lock this guy up if they can.

"As much as Vlad Jr. has leverage right now and free agency might be very kind to him as a 26-year-old player, which he will be when he hits free agency next year, it's a balancing act. If he can get, for argument's sake, $420 million from the Blue Jays right now, he’d probably want to take that. We'll see where it goes. They've got about a month before Vlad has a deadline imposed, and I expect that they'll be very active in talks during that time," Nicholson-Smith said. [22:17]

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Vladimir Guerrero Jr. an anomaly to previous 1B contracts

The first base corner has usually been regarded of lower value because of the lack of defensive efforts required to play the position, which makes Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s ask a rarity in the baseball world.

As a first baseman, Guerrero asking for $450 million is a lot, considering the two biggest deals in the last 15 years have been a lot less - Miguel Cabrera eight-year $248-million extension with the Detroit Tigers in 2014 and Albert Pujols signing with the Los Angeles Angels on 10-year, $254-million deal. But both Cabrera and Pujols were more than 30 when they signed their respective deals.

More recent deals that include Freddie Freeman's six-year $162 million contract with the Dodgers and Matt Olson's eight-year $168 million extension with the Braves. They have been at a later age than the age-27 season Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will be heading into in 2026. If Juan Soto's monstrous contract is any signifier, younger players are getting the big deals as per the market.