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The Houston Astros are the defending world champions, but they are currently fighting for a playoffs 2023 berth. Not a single team from the AL West has secured a playoff spot, and the top three are fighting for the division and remaining wild card slots. What are the chances that the Astros can make it back to the playoffs?
What are the Astros' chances of making the playoffs in 2023?
The Houston Astros currently have a 75% chance of making it into the playoffs according to Fangraphs' projections model. They are currently trailing the Texas Rangers by 2.5 games but do have a lead for a wild card position. Per Vegas Insider, they have +650 odds of securing the division title.
If the season were to end today, they would be the second wild card. The Tampa Bay Rays, who have clinched at least a spot in the postseason, lead Houston by 7.5 games, so that spot is already locked up.
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The Toronto Blue Jays are the third wild card team, and they trail Houston by 1.5 games. It's a very tight race and the Astros have just five games remaining on the schedule to get in.
They play two more games against the Seattle Mariners before a season-ending series with the Arizona Diamondbacks, who are also fighting for a playoff spot.
Here's what the Astros need to happen
They need to win three out of their remaining five games and have the Rangers lose four of their remaining games. That would put the Astros at 89-73 and the Rangers would also be 89-73. Houston has the tiebreaker there.
To secure a wild card slot, the Astros need only remain better than the Mariners. Houston taking the final two games of their series would push the Mariners into a 3.5 game hole with just three games left.
The Astros need the Blue Jays, who are currently 1.5 games ahead for the second Wild Card spot, to stumble. If the Blue Jays, who face the Yankees lose three of their remaining games, the Astros would need to win out. That would put the Blue Jays at 90-72 and the Astros at 91-71.
