The MLB Draft Lottery is coming up soon. Much like the NBA, the MLB has adopted a lottery to prevent tanking and to provide some intrigue in the draft. Baseball's draft has less focus on it than other major sports due to its lengthy nature and players selected are almost always years away from playing at the MLB level.
The lottery is designed to make sure teams don't tank to ensure they get the first overall pick. Struggling teams have no reason to try and be as bad as they possibly can, which should, in theory, translate to a better product on the field. When does this occur?
When is the MLB Draft Lottery?
The 2024 MLB Draft Lottery will be on December 10 at 5:30 pm EST. All 15 of the lottery picks will be handed out. Every team has a theoretical chance of earning the No. 1 pick.
That's how the Cleveland Guardians ended up with the top pick in the 2024 MLB draft even though they were not the worst team in baseball in 2023. Any of the teams that did not make the playoffs can earn the pick.
That includes the Boston Red Sox, Arizona Diamondbacks, Miami Marlins, Tampa Bay Rays, Toronto Blue Jays, San Francisco Giants, Seattle Mariners and others.
Here are the chances (in percentage) for each of the 15 teams to land the No. 1 pick.
- 22.45 -- Rockies (.377)
- 22.45 -- Marlins (.383)
- 17.96 -- Angels (.389)
- 10.20 -- Nationals (.438)
- 7.48 -- Blue Jays (.457)
- 5.31 -- Pirates (.469)
- 3.67 -- Reds (.475)
- 2.45 -- Rangers (.481)
- 1.90 -- Giants (.494)
- 1.50 -- Rays (.494)
- 1.22 -- Red Sox (.500)
- 1.09 -- Twins (.506)
- 0.82 -- Cardinals (.512)
- 0.68 -- Cubs (.512)
- 0.53 -- Mariners (.525)
- 0.27 -- D-backs (.549)
The worse the team was, the better its chances. That's why the Miami Marlins and Colorado Rockies are the two favorites, but even the Diamondbacks, who missed the playoffs due to a tiebreaker, are in play.
The Chicago White Sox and Oakland Athletics are ineligible for a lottery pick as they cannot select earlier than 10th and 11th.