Who has the best odds of landing the No. 1 pick in the 2023 MLB Draft Lottery?

Baseball fans will witness the first MLB Draft lottery in history on December 6. The order of the top 18 picks will be determined at the Winter Meetings in San Diego on Tuesday, with the Washington Nationals, Pittsburgh Pirates, and Oakland Athletics sitting atop the board with the highest percentage to land the top pick of the draft.

The Nationals, Pirates, and Athletics all hold a 16.5% chance of landing the number one pick in the MLB Draft, followed by the Cincinnati Reds (13.25%), Kansas City Royals (10.00%), and the Detroit Tigers (7.50%).

"For the first time ever, the top 6 picks in the 2023 #MLBDraft will be determined by a draft lottery. The results will be revealed on Tuesday, Dec. 6 at 8:30 pm ET on @MLBNetwork" - MLB

The MLB Draft Lottery is part of a new collective bargaining agreement that decides that all 18 non-playoff teams will enter the lottery for the top six selections. The order of all postseason clubs will be determined by when they get eliminated and their revenue-sharing status.

Until this year, the draft order was always determined by the winning percentages from the previous season. Now, teams will have less incentive to "tank" for the top pick in the draft as nothing is guaranteed.

"The first-ever MLB Draft lottery takes place Tuesday at 8:30 p.m. ET. The Washington Nationals, Oakland A's and Pittsburgh Pirates all have equal odds for the No. 1 pick -- 16.5% -- with Cincinnati (13.2%) and Kansas City (10%) next. All the non-playoff teams are in the lottery." - Jeff Passan

---

Who is projected to be the top pick in this year's MLB Draft?

Most years, there is a clear-cut number one pick in the draft, yet for the premier iteration of the draft lottery, there is no unquestioned number one pick.

This year's draft features a "big 3" of LSU outfielder Dylan Crew, a right-handed pitcher out of Tennessee Chase Dollander, and Mississippi shortstop Jacob Gonzalez. Depending on which list you read, the same top three players alternate the top spot.

"Since 2020, Dylan Crews trails only Gavin Cross in batted balls hit > 100 mph. He’s been the best hitter in the country since ‘21. He’s athletic, has power, takes his walks. There’s no need to over complicate it, could be the best draft prospect since Adley." - @mason_mcrae

Last year, Jackson Holliday went first overall to the Baltimore Orioles. Holliday is the son of former MLB star Matt Holliday.