Will the Atlanta Braves make the playoffs? Analyzing the NL challenges ahead of October

In 2023, the Atlanta Braves put up a historic season. Not only did the club tie the MLB record for home runs hit in a single year with 307 homers, but they also posted the best slugging percentage ever seen in the league's modern era at .501.

Additionally, the club boasted some of the strongest bats in baseball. Ronald Acuna Jr., who won the NL MVP, became the first player since 2006 to steal 40 bases and hit over 40 home runs. First baseman Matt Olson became the first player ever to lead the league in home runs and RBIs and not win the MVP.

However, in 2024, some very different realities are at play. Ravaged by injuries, the Braves' playoff hopes are far from a sure thing.

Hope springs eternal for the 2024 Atlanta Braves

On account of their 70-60 record, the Braves currently cling to the third and final NL Wild Card spot, 2.5 games ahead of the New York Mets. Though this may not be the late-season reality that many fans expected, hope remains.

The bad luck started mere weeks after opening day. After his second start of the season, 2023 NL strikeout leader Spencer Strider found out he needed to undergo Tommy John surgery, and would miss the remainder of the season. In late May, Ronald Acuna Jr. followed Strider's fate, tearing his ACL for the second time since 2021. In August, the book shut on All-Star third baseman Austin Riley's season on account of a broken hand.

The loss of big bats and strong arms has been apparent in the numbers. After scoring the most runs in baseball last year, the Braves rank 19th in the category in 2024. Slugging has also fallen from .501 last season to a .413 figure this season.

Thankfully for fans in Atlanta, the season is far from finished. NL RBI leader Marcell Ozuna is hitting a league-best .305 this season, while new additions like Jarred Kelenic have contributed with career seasons.

However, the key to the team's viability in the postseason is pitching, which despite losing Strider, has been exceptional. The Braves rank behind only the Seattle Mariners in cumulative ERA. Chris Sale, who has plenty of October experience, is having a mammoth season and is now 14-3 with a 2.62 ERA.

Moreover, Reynaldo Lopez made a seamless transition to the rotation and is now 7-4 with a 2.02 ERA in 21 starts. To add to Atlanta's pitching strength, rookie Spencer Schwellenbach is providing hope for the organization's future.

The game plan has clearly changed. The 2024 Braves cannot rely on firepower to get them into and through October. However, by recalibrating to pitching and relying on the right bats at the right time, it will not be surprising to see Atlanta in the MLB postseason for the seventh straight year.