Orioles vs. Red Sox: Game 1, prediction, odds and picks

Orioles vs. Red Sox: Game 1, prediction, odds and picks - March 31, MLB 2025

Modified Mar 31, 2025 14:32 GMT

MLB: Spring Training-Boston Red Sox at New York Mets - Source: Imagn

It wasn't the greatest of starts for either the Baltimore Orioles or Boston Red Sox through the first weekend of the 2025 MLB season. While the O's split their series north of the border with the division rival Blue Jays, the BoSox only managed one win through four tries against the Texas Rangers and scored 11 runs. Alex Cora's squad will attempt to get the bats going at Camden Yards in today's series opener against Baltimore.

The opening game of the three-game set will pit Sean Newcomb against Cade Povich in a less-than-intriguing starting pitcher matchup. The O's went 8-5 against the Red Sox overall last year, with the over-cashing in at a 6-5-2 clip.

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Red Sox vs. Orioles recent form and records

After opening the year with a 5-2 win at Texas, Boston dropped three straight to the Rangers. Because of it, the Red Sox have cost MLB bettors $209 through four games. With the offense slashing an anemic .194/.285/.299/.584 and the pitching staff rating out in the middle of the pack, Boston played to the under in all four matchups.

Baltimore alternated wins and losses through its four games played north of the border. In the two wins, the offense combined for 21 scored runs. In the two defeats, the Orioles mustered three total runs. As it is, the team returns home to the comforts of Camden 2-2 and up $12 for baseball bettors overall. Sunday's series finale proved to be the only low scorer, with Baltimore 3-1 to the over.

Players to Watch

Starting Pitchers

Sean Newcomb (1-0, 6.30 ERA in 2024)

Newcomb went 0-0 with an 11.12 ERA and 2:7 K/BB ratio over 5.2 IP on the road last year
Newcomb is 0-0 with a 2.16 ERA and 4:4 K/BB ratio in 8.1 IP thrown against the Orioles
Newcomb gave up 0 hits and 1 ER in 1.1 IP with 1 K and 2 BB against Baltimore in 2022

Cade Povich (3-9, 5.20 ERA in 2024)

Povich went 2-4 with a 3.60 ERA and 47:16 K/BB ratio over 50.0 IP at home last year
Povich is 0-2 with a 4.91 ERA and 11:2 K/BB ratio in 11.0 IP thrown against the Red Sox
Povich gave up 11 hits and 6 ER in 11.0 IP with 11 K and 2 BB against Boston in 2024

Must-Watch Hitters

Boston

Not playing in the field might or might not be having an effect on Rafael Devers at the plate. The three-time All-Star is yet to tally a hit through 16 plate appearances and has struck out 12 times with a pair of walks. He's 2-for-6 lifetime against Povich with one strikeout. It's been so bad that his 2+ total bases prop is offering up a plus-money return.

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Baltimore

Adley Rutschman has gotten out to a nice start to his 2025 campaign, with the O's catcher slashing .313/.389/.750/1.139 with two home runs and 3 RBIs. Most importantly, his K/BB ratio is dead even at 2:2. The two-time All-Star is batting .283 against left-handed pitching as opposed to .254 against righties, so look for the switch hitter to keep his hot streak alive in Baltimore's home opener.

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Red Sox vs. Orioles Baseball Betting Odds

Monday 3/31	Money Line	Run Line	Total Runs
Boston Red Sox	+124	+1.5 -162	O 9.5 -108
Baltimore Orioles	-148	-1.5 +136	U 9.5 -112

Red Sox vs. Orioles expert picks & game prediction

While the Orioles have gotten out to the better start of these two teams and are at home, it's too early to buy into them being lined this type of favorite regardless of the Red Sox yet to play up to their true abilities. With neither squad possessing a major advantage on the starting bump, siding with the underdog at DraftKings Sportsbook and under is the way to go in the series opener.

Money Line: +124
Run Line: +1.5 -162
Total Runs: Under 9.5 -112

Red Sox vs. Orioles Prediction: Boston Wins 5-4

About the author

Mike earned a Bachelor of Science in Human Biology from the University of Kansas with dreams of becoming an orthopedic surgeon and team physician. However, his career path took a different turn as he ventured into sports handicapping, writing, and editing.

While preparing for the MCAT, Mike applied to contribute to a site offering free sports picks, which proved to be a pivotal step. His success there garnered interest from larger platforms and startups. Despite his efforts, organic chemistry derailed his medical school ambitions, and he chose to shift fully into sports betting and fantasy sports content creation.

Over a 20-year career, Mike has navigated the highs and lows of professional sports betting. His experience spans working on a late-night sports talk radio show, covering the Chicago Rush in the Arena Football League, managing a content distribution company, owning and operating a vape shop, and creating one of the first profitable DFS affiliate sites—an endeavor that helped buy his current home.

When offline, Mike enjoys working out his green thumb, coaching his son’s sports teams, hosting tea parties with his daughter, and relaxing with his wife and friends. A die-hard Kansas Jayhawks fan, he also proudly bleeds Cubbie blue.

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Edited by Ribin Peter