Padres vs. Tigers: Game 1, prediction, odds, injuries and picks

A series battle of injury-riddled division leaders picks up Monday when the San Diego Padres continue their road trip in Motown to oppose the Detroit Tigers.

Both bullpens could get a workout in the opener of the three-game interleague set with Randy Vasquez set to go up against Keider Montero.

Padres vs. Tigers recent form and records

San Diego

The Padres head to Motown off a must-needed 3-2 win on ESPN Sunday Night Baseball to avoid the sweep against the Houston Astros. The win pushed Mike Shildt's squad to 4-5 as visitors, amounting to a -$66 return on investment for $100-per-bet MLB bettors.

Overall, the Padres clock in $748 in the black and in first place of the NL West entirely due to winning 12 of 13 games played at Petco Park.

Detroit

The Tigers bounced back from only their second series loss of the season against Milwaukee by taking three of four from the division rival Kansas City Royals over the weekend. The series win allowed A.J. Hinch's troops to hold onto their slim half-game lead over the Cleveland Guardians atop the AL Central standings.

Detroit has been a solid investment for baseball bettors with its 13-9 overall record amounting to a $290 rate of return. The entirety of that rake has been tallied at home, where the Tigers stand 8-2 overall and up $415 for their backers.

Injuries

San Diego

Luis Arraez 1B Day To Day - Neck
Jackson Merrill CF 10 Day IL - Hamstring
Jason Heyward LF 10 Day IL - Knee
Brandon Lockridge CF 10 Day IL - Hamstring
Jake Cronenworth 2B 10 Day IL - Rib
Bryan Hoeing RP 15 Day IL - Shoulder
Sean Reynolds RP 15 Day IL - Foot
Yu Darvish SP 15 Day IL - Elbow
Matt Waldron SP 60 Day IL - Oblique
Jhony Brito RP 60 Day IL - Forearm
Joe Musgrove SP 60 Day IL - Elbow

Detroit

Kerry Carpenter LF Day To Day - Hamstring
John Brebbia RP 15 Day IL - Tricep
Beau Brieske RP 15 Day IL - Ankle
Manuel Margot RF 10 Day IL - Knee
Jake Rogers C 10 Day IL - Oblique
Wenceel Perez RF 60 Day IL - Spine
Ty Madden SP 60 Day IL - Shoulder
Alex Cobb SP 15 Day IL - Hip
Matt Vierling CF 10 Day IL - Shoulder
Parker Meadows CF 60 Day IL - Arm
Jose Urquidy SP 60 Day IL - Elbow
Sawyer Gipson-Long SP 60 Day IL - Hip
Alex Lange RP 60 Day IL - Lat

Starting Pitchers

Randy Vasquez (1-1, 1.74 ERA in 2025)

Allowed 14 hits (0 HR) and 4 ER with an 8:14 K/BB ratio in four 2025 starts.
Tossed 5.0 IP of 7 hit and 1 ER ball with 2:2 K/BB ratio vs. Chicago last start.
This will be his first career start against the Detroit Tigers.
1-1 with a 2.79 ERA and 3:8 K/BB ratio in 9.2 IP on the road in 2025.

Keider Montero (0-1, 9.00 ERA in 2025)

Allowed 8 hits (3 HR) and 5 ER with an 8:1 K/BB ratio in one 2025 starts.
Tossed 5.0 IP of 8 hit and 5 ER ball with 8:1 K/BB ratio vs. Milwaukee last start.
0-0 with a 10.38 ERA and 2:2 K/BB ratio in 4.1 career IP thrown vs. San Diego.
3-5 with a 4.09 ERA and 47:20 K/BB ratio in 61.2 IP at home in 2024.

Must-Watch Hitters

San Diego

Who else to look to in the series opener than Fernando Tatis Jr., who is in position to hit a home run in a third straight after parking his eighth home run in the cheap seats of Minute Maid Park last night.

The Padres' All-Star is slashing .358/.441/.691 over 81 at-bats with 16 RBIs and dead dead-even 12-12 strikeout-to-walk ratio, amounting to a stellar 2.1 WAR.

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Detroit

With the Tigers' offense rating out in the middle of the pack and the pitching staff largely responsible for the team's solid start, it's tough to get excited about backing any of their bats on a game-by-game basis.

However, Spencer Torkelson looks to be in the midst of his breakout campaign, slashing .288/.400/.638 with a team-high seven home runs and 21 RBIs. He's hit safely in five straight games and collected two home runs and nine RBIs during that stretch.

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Padres vs. Tigers Betting Odds

Monday 4/21	Money Line	Run Line	Total Runs
San Diego Padres	+110	+1.5 -192	O 8 -110
Detroit Tigers	-130	-1.5 +160	U 8 -110

Padres vs. Tigers expert picks and game prediction

With both bullpens likely to get involved early, the team that strikes first just might put itself in a position to take the series opener. While not overly enamored with what Randy Vasquez brings to the table, he has a better shot to produce a quality start than Keider Montero, who's ultra-reliant upon a slider that San Diego has smashed to this point per Baseball Savant.

With the Friars sporting the top bullpen in the game, they should be lined favorites to win the series opener at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Padres vs. Tigers Prediction: San Diego Wins 5-3

About the author

Mike earned a Bachelor of Science in Human Biology from the University of Kansas with dreams of becoming an orthopedic surgeon and team physician. However, his career path took a different turn as he ventured into sports handicapping, writing, and editing.

While preparing for the MCAT, Mike applied to contribute to a site offering free sports picks, which proved to be a pivotal step. His success there garnered interest from larger platforms and startups. Despite his efforts, organic chemistry derailed his medical school ambitions, and he chose to shift fully into sports betting and fantasy sports content creation.

Over a 20-year career, Mike has navigated the highs and lows of professional sports betting. His experience spans working on a late-night sports talk radio show, covering the Chicago Rush in the Arena Football League, managing a content distribution company, owning and operating a vape shop, and creating one of the first profitable DFS affiliate sites—an endeavor that helped buy his current home.

When offline, Mike enjoys working out his green thumb, coaching his son’s sports teams, hosting tea parties with his daughter, and relaxing with his wife and friends. A die-hard Kansas Jayhawks fan, he also proudly bleeds Cubbie blue.

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Edited by Mike Rose