Pirates vs. Marlins: Game 1, prediction, odds and picks - March 27, MLB 2025

It'll be Paul Skenes Day at the ballpark on Opening Day when the Pittsburgh Pirates and Miami Marlins square off in the first of an extended four-game series on Thursday night. Both teams enter the 2025 season in a similar position, with oddsmakers expecting each to bring up the rear of their respective division's standings. For confirmation's sake, the Buccos enter the year with a 77.5-game win total, while the Fish clock in at 63.5.

The series opener will, however, be intriguing for MLB bettors, with Skenes, the reigning Rookie of the Year Award winner, set to square off against 2022 Cy Young Award winner Sandy Alcantara.

Pirates vs. Marlins recent form and records

The Pirates wrapped Spring Training with a 14-15 overall record, going 9-5 at home and 5-10 on the road. Their offense rated out amongst the worst in the exhibition season, slashing .243/.329/.394/.723 with only 29 home runs and 137 RBIs. The pitching staff was above average, however, evidenced by a 4.75 ERA and allowing 163 hits and 90 ER with 178 K through 170.2 innings.

The Marlins played to an MLB-worst 10-15 record during the exhibition season, going 5-10 at home and 5-5 on the road. The offense was below average, slashing .248/.344/.379/.723 with 27 home runs and 133 RBIs. It wasn't much better for the pitching staff either, which proved to be the absolute worst in baseball after compiling a 6.76 ERA and allowing 194 hits and 139 ER over 185.0 total innings.

Players to Watch

Starting Pitchers

Paul Skenes (11-3, 1.96 ERA in 2024)

• Skenes went 5-2 with a 1.32 ERA and 87 K over 184.0 IP on the road last year
• He's 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA and 9:1 K/BB ratio in one career start against the Marlins
• He gave up 6 hits and 1 ER in 6.0 IP with 9 K and 1 BB against Miami last season

Sandy Alcantara (7-12, 4.14 ERA in 2023)

• Alcantara didn't throw a single pitch last season after recovering from Tommy John surgery
• He's 5-1 with a 2.91 ERA and 33:13 K/BB ratio in five career starts against the Pirates

Must-Watch Hitters

Pittsburgh

There isn't much data to build from, considering that Oneil Cruz has only stepped into the box to oppose Sandy Alcantara two total times, but one of those at-bats resulted in the Pirates' power hitter reaching the cheap seats. Expectations for Cruz are very bullish for 2025, so let's root for a solid start to the campaign and look for some value in his player props. He's 6/1 to hit a home run tonight!

Miami

As dominant Skenes proved to be in his lone career start against the Marlins last season, it's tough to get excited about backing any of Miami's hitters in the player prop markets. However, there is some value to be had in the hits markets on players like Otto Lopez and Xavier Edwards, who raked four singles in five combined at-bats against the Pirates Cy Young contender last season.

Pirates vs. Marlins Baseball Betting Odds

Thursday 3/27	Money Line	Run Line	Total Runs
Pittsburgh Pirates	-148	-1.5 +124	O 6.5 -105
Miami Marlins	+124	+1.5 -148	U 6.5 -115

Pirates vs. Marlins expert picks and game prediction

The betting market isn't buying into the Pirates being lined with substantial road favorites for their season opener. Since hitting the board -160 favorites, Pittsburgh has been bet down to -148 at DraftKings Sportsbook, with other outlets down as low as -140.

I get it. Neither of these teams is any good and this is the season opener. However, Alcantara will be making his first start in a year and a half and Skenes is the current favorite to win the NL Cy Young. MLB bettors will only get around 30 opportunities to take advantage of Paul Skenes Day, so let's do so on Thursday.

• Money Line: -148
• Run-Line: -1.5 +124
• Total Runs: Under 6.5 -115

Pirates vs. Marlins Prediction: Pittsburgh Wins 4-2