Red Sox vs. Rangers: Game 1, prediction, odds and picks

Opening Day brings with it an early litmus test as the Boston Red Sox face the Texas Rangers in the first of an extended four-game series on Thursday. Both teams aim to rebound following disappointing 2024 campaigns. Boston missed the playoffs for the third straight year, while the Rangers failed to defend their World Series title from the prior year.

Garrett Crochet will be making his Red Sox debut in this game, with the left-hander looking to get his tenure in Beantown to start on the right foot. Countering the southpaw will be veteran Nathan Eovaldi, who will toe the bump for his fifth all-time Opening Day start.

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Red Sox vs. Rangers recent form and records

The Red Sox took care of business in the exhibition season down in Fort Myers, logging 15 wins through 27 tries while posting winning records both at home (8-6) and on the road (7-6). Surprisingly, it did so with neither aspect of the team excelling. Boston logged the fifth-lowest batting average of all 30 teams (.238), and tallied the fourth-most strikeouts (297). The pitching wasn't much better, as evidenced by the 287 hits (25 HR) and 153 ER through 255.1 innings.

The Rangers had a 14-16 record throughout Spring Training, with the team going 9-7 at home but 5-9 on the road. Texas also lacked in both the pitching and hitting departments throughout. The offense slashed .250/.319/.440/.759 with 43 home runs and 158 RBIs but also attained a near 27% K rate. It wasn't pretty for the pitching staff either, which threw to a 5.03 ERA, allowing 300 hits (41 HR) over 279 total innings.

Players to Watch

Starting Pitchers

Garrett Crochet (6-12, 3.58 ERA in 2024)

Crochet went 2-4 with a 3.90 ERA and 89 K over 67.0 IP on the road last year
The lefty is 0-1 with a 2.35 ERA and 8:3 K/BB ratio in 2 career starts against the Rangers made last year

Nathan Eovaldi (12-8, 3.80 ERA in 2024)

Eovaldi went 7-3 with a 3.63 ERA and 93 K over 94.1 IP at home last year
The righty is 3-1 with a 5.29 ERA and 30:13 K/BB ratio in nine career starts against the Red Sox
He gave up 7 hits and 5 ER in 5.0 IP with 7 K and 1 BB against Boston last season

Must-Watch Hitters

Boston

Having run up against Eovaldi a bunch in AL West play while playing with the Astros, it's possible Alex Bregman will hit the ground running in his Red Sox debut.

The third baseman has stepped into the box to oppose the right-hander 32 times and 10 hits, with two reaching the cheap seats. He only went down on strikes five times and took a trio of walks. With five of those overall hits of the extra-bases variety, Bregman's player props are in play.

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Texas

Not a single Ranger has left the yard against Crochet in limited at-bats, so betting on their home run props would be the ultimate crap shoot. Value, however, can likely be had with Joc Pederson in the player props market, with oddsmakers likely to make him prove he's still as good as he proved to be with the D'backs last season.

The veteran likely won't get the DH start due to a lefty starting, but he will see at-bats against Boston's pen. If so, MLB bettors will be in a position to cash in on his likely inflated prop offerings.

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Red Sox vs. Rangers Baseball Betting Odds

Thursday 3/27	Money Line	Run-Line	Total Runs
Boston Red Sox	-118	-1.5 +150	O 7.5 -115
Texas Rangers	-102	+1.5 -180	U 7.5 -105

Red Sox vs. Rangers expert picks and game prediction

This should be a tremendous series from start to finish, with both teams amongst the favorites to cash in on the World Series futures odds at DraftKings Sportsbook. While I think the Red Sox will ultimately take the series opener in Crochet's debut, I expect Eovaldi to make them earn it at least early on.

With that, a wager on the first five innings under 3.5 runs is something to consider paired with full-game investments on Boston via the money line and run line.

Money Line: -118
Run-Line: -1.5 +150
Total Runs: Under 3.5 +114 (1st 5 Innings)

Red Sox vs. Rangers Prediction: Boston Wins 5-2

About the author

Mike earned a Bachelor of Science in Human Biology from the University of Kansas with dreams of becoming an orthopedic surgeon and team physician. However, his career path took a different turn as he ventured into sports handicapping, writing, and editing.

While preparing for the MCAT, Mike applied to contribute to a site offering free sports picks, which proved to be a pivotal step. His success there garnered interest from larger platforms and startups. Despite his efforts, organic chemistry derailed his medical school ambitions, and he chose to shift fully into sports betting and fantasy sports content creation.

Over a 20-year career, Mike has navigated the highs and lows of professional sports betting. His experience spans working on a late-night sports talk radio show, covering the Chicago Rush in the Arena Football League, managing a content distribution company, owning and operating a vape shop, and creating one of the first profitable DFS affiliate sites—an endeavor that helped buy his current home.

When offline, Mike enjoys working out his green thumb, coaching his son’s sports teams, hosting tea parties with his daughter, and relaxing with his wife and friends. A die-hard Kansas Jayhawks fan, he also proudly bleeds Cubbie blue.

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Edited by Ribin Peter