Shohei Ohtani vs. Juan Soto: Analyzing whose $700,000,000 or higher contract was better, ft. deferred sum, present-day value, signing bonus, etc

Juan Soto and the New York Mets sent shockwaves after agreeing a record 15-year, $765 million contract, which includes an additional $75 million signing bonus. The outfielder's contract has an opt-out in place after the 2029 season. If the Mets want to nullify it, they would need to boost his AAV from $51 million to $55 million for the remaining 10 years of his contract.

Soto's contract surpasses Los Angeles Dodgers star Shohei Ohtani's 10-year, $700 million contract signed last year. However, there are various facets of both contracts that need to be analyzed before arriving at a conclusion on who got the better deal.

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Shohei Ohtani vs Juan Soto contract comparison

#1 Contract Length

Shohei Ohtani: 10 years (2024–2033) initially, with a large (97.1%) deferred payout from 2034–2043. Effective length: 20 years considering deferred payments.

Juan Soto: 15 years (2024–2038), potentially worth more if the opt-out clause conditions are met.

#2 Total Value

Ohtani: $700 million guaranteed

Soto: $765 million guaranteed, increasing to $805 million if opt-out conditions are voided

#3 Annual Average Value (AAV)

Ohtani: Luxury tax AAV: $46 million. Payment schedule: $2 million annually (2024–2033) and $68 million annually (2034–2043)

Soto: AAV without adjustment: $51 million. AAV with opt-out void: $53.66 million

#4 Present Value of Future Payments

Ohtani: Present value of deferred $68 million (2034 onwards): $44 million (discounted at 4.43%). The total present value is significantly lower than the $700 million nominal amount due to deferred payments.

Soto: No deferred money means the nominal value closely matches the present value.

#5 Signing Bonus

Ohtani: None

Soto: $75 million signing bonus, paid up front

#6 Deferred Payments

Ohtani: Significant. Deferred payments dominate the second half of his contract (2034–2043), which reduces the Dodgers' short-term financial burden.

Soto: None. All payments are structured within the 15-year period

#7 Luxury Tax Impact

Ohtani: Counts $46 million annually toward the Dodgers’ luxury tax

Soto: Counts $51 million annually (or $53.66 million if opt-out is voided) toward the Mets’ luxury tax

Here's a tabular comparison:

Parameters	Shohei Ohtani	Juan Soto
Contract Length	20 years (incl. deferred period)	15 years
Total Value	$700 million	$765-$805 million
Present Value	Lower due to deferrals (~440 million)	Same ($765 million)
Signing Bonus	None	$75 million
Deferred Payments	Significant	None
Luxury Tax AAV	$46 million	$51-$53.66 million
Flexibility	Deferred sums for cap relief	Opt-out clause
Long-Term Risk	High	Moderate

In a side-by-side comparison, Juan Soto's contract beats Shohei Ohtani's on multiple parameters. While Ohtani's contract is structured such that it helps the Dodgers continue spending and bolster their roster, Soto's impairs the Mets' flexibility in terms of spending and bolstering the team.

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Who do you think between Juan Soto and Shohei Ohtani deserve a better deal?