Twins vs. Astros: Game 1 prediction, odds, injuries and picks

The Houston Astros and Minnesota Twins entered the year as favorites to compete for the pennant in each of their respective divisions. Neither team has gotten out to solid starts for MLB bettors with each sporting losing records when they kick off a three-game set at Target Field on Thursday.

A fantastic MLB pitching matchup is lined up for the series opener with the Astros sending Hunter Brown to the bump to square off against Joe Ryan who is lined the short favorite to win Minnesota's home opener.

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Twins vs. Astros recent form and records

After taking two of three from the Mets to begin the season, the Astros were humbled by the San Francisco Giants who busted out the brooms to sweep the series. The result dropped Joe Espada's squad to 2-4 overall amounting to a -$286 deficit for $100-per-wager MLB bettors. In averaging just 2.0 runs per game, the under has paid out in four of the Astros' six games.

The Twins have proven to be costly investments for baseball bettors as well. Rocco Baldelli's troops were shockingly swept by the Cardinals at Busch Stadium to start the year. Then they got shutout 9-0 in the series opener at the White Sox as hefty -185 favorites. Thankfully for Minnesota, it bounced back to win the next two to secure its first series win of 2025.

Injuries

Astros

Pedro Leon RF 10 Day IL - Knee
Taylor Trammell LF 10 Day IL - Calf
Forrest Whitley SP 15 Day IL - Knee
Kaleb Ort RP 15 Day IL - Oblique
Luis Garcia SP 15 Day IL - Elbow
Shawn Dubin RP 15 Day IL - Shoulder
Lance McCullers SP 15 Day IL - Forearm
J.P. France SP 60 Day IL - Shoulder
Cristian Javier SP 60 Day IL - Elbow

Twins

Brooks Lee SS 10 Day IL - Back
Royce Lewis 3B 10 Day IL - Hamstring
Brock Stewart RP 15 Day IL - Hamstring
Michael Tonkin RP 15 Day IL - Shoulder

Starting Pitchers

Hunter Brown (0-1, 3.00 ERA in 2025)

Brown went 6-4 with a 3.64 ERA and 90:27 K/BB ratio over 84.1 IP on the road last year
Brown is 1-2 with a 5.70 ERA and 28:6 K/BB ratio in 23.2 IP thrown against the Twins
Brown gave up 17 hits and 10 ER in 12.0 IP with 13 K and 2 BB against Minnesota in 2024

Joe Ryan (0-0, 1.80 ERA in 2025)

Ryan went 5-3 with a 3.92 ERA and 71:10 K/BB ratio over 66.2 IP at home last year
Ryan is 2-3 with a 7.66 ERA and 31:12 K/BB ratio in 24.2 IP thrown against the Astros
Ryan gave up 13 hits and 8 ER in 10.2 IP with 12 K and 3 BB against Houston in 2023

Must-Watch Hitters

Houston

The season hasn't gotten out to the greatest of starts for Yordan Alvarez. He's only slashing .150/.280/.480 through 20 at-bats with three hits and four RBIs. However, he raked in two of those knocks in the last game and has had success against Ryan in his career with three of his four hits leaving the yard.

Alvarez offers the worst odds at DK to hit a home run in this game (+360) but offers a +110 return on investment for 2+ total bases and a +165 return to knock in at least 1 RBI.

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Minnesota

With just five hits across 22 at-bats, MLB prop bettors likely won't be excited to dive into player props for Ty France in this game. However, Minnesota's first baseman enters the Twins home opener on a heater having tallied four hits, a walk and two RBIs the last eight times he stepped into the box.

The righty is also 4-for-12 lifetime against Brown with an extra base hit. Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs at +105 is a sound bet to make at DK.

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Twins vs. Astros Betting Odds

Thursday 4/3	Money Line	Run Line	Total Runs
Houston Astros	+105	+1.5 -205	O 7 -120
Minnesota Twins	-125	-1.5 +170	U 7 +100

Twins vs. Astros expert picks and game prediction

After being swept by the Giants, the Astros looked lifeless, while the Twins showed some fight by coming back to take the series from Chicago after dropping the series opener.

With Minnesota likely to bring its "A" game to the park for today's home opener, and Joe Ryan historically performing well on his home mound, look for the Twins to deliver a win and cash in on the MLB odds at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Twins vs. Astros Prediction: Minnesota Wins 5-3

About the author

Mike earned a Bachelor of Science in Human Biology from the University of Kansas with dreams of becoming an orthopedic surgeon and team physician. However, his career path took a different turn as he ventured into sports handicapping, writing, and editing.

While preparing for the MCAT, Mike applied to contribute to a site offering free sports picks, which proved to be a pivotal step. His success there garnered interest from larger platforms and startups. Despite his efforts, organic chemistry derailed his medical school ambitions, and he chose to shift fully into sports betting and fantasy sports content creation.

Over a 20-year career, Mike has navigated the highs and lows of professional sports betting. His experience spans working on a late-night sports talk radio show, covering the Chicago Rush in the Arena Football League, managing a content distribution company, owning and operating a vape shop, and creating one of the first profitable DFS affiliate sites—an endeavor that helped buy his current home.

When offline, Mike enjoys working out his green thumb, coaching his son’s sports teams, hosting tea parties with his daughter, and relaxing with his wife and friends. A die-hard Kansas Jayhawks fan, he also proudly bleeds Cubbie blue.

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Edited by Nicolaas Ackermann