Yankees vs. Rays: Game 1, prediction, odds, injuries and picks

The New York Yankees will return to their Spring Training digs for the opener of their extended four-game series with the Tampa Bay Rays from George M. Steinbrenner Field on Thursday. This will be the first meeting between the AL East rivals this season, with New York earning the slim 7-6 advantage in last year's rivalry.

The back end of both staff's rotations will get some burn in Game 1 with right-handers Will Warren and Taj Bradley set to square off against one another.

Yankees vs. Rays recent form and records

New York

The Yankees head to Tampa winners of three straight after sweeping the Kansas City Royals out of the Bronx. The trio of wins pushed New York to 11-7 on the year, allowing it to hold a slim half-game lead over the Toronto Blue Jays atop the AL East standings.

Having gone off the board favored to win in all but two games, the Yankees have only managed a $42 return on investment for $100-per-bet MLB bettors. While armed with the highest scoring offense in the game, three straight unders against the Royals pushed the over to 10-7-1 in the team's 18 played games.

Tampa Bay

After erupting for 16 runs in the series-opening win against the Boston Red Sox on Monday, Tampa Bay only scored four runs and was shut out in the finale. The pair of defeats pushed the Rays two games under .500 and into fourth place in the division standings at 8-10.

The losing record has produced a -$390 return on investment for baseball bettors, with the team only managing an 8-7 record (-$90) in 15 played home games.

Injuries

New York

Giancarlo Stanton DH 10 Day IL - Elbow
DJ LeMahieu 3B 10 Day IL - Calf
Marcus Stroman SP 15 Day IL - Knee
Scott Effross RP 15 Day IL - Hamstring
Clayton Beeter SP 15 Day IL - Shoulder
Jonathan Loaisiga RP 15 Day IL - Elbow
JT Brubaker SP 60 Day IL - Ribs
Jake Cousins RP 60 Day IL - Elbow
Luis Gil SP 60 Day IL - Back
Gerrit Cole SP 60 Day IL - Elbow

Tampa Bay

Jonny DeLuca RF 10 Day IL - Shoulder
Josh Lowe RF 10 Day IL - Oblique
Ha-Seong Kim SS 10 Day IL - Shoulder
Richie Palacios 2B 10 Day IL - Finger
Shane McClanahan SP 15 Day IL - Triceps
Kevin Kelly RP 15 Day IL - Glute
Alex Faedo RP 15 Day IL - Shoulder
Nate Lavender RP 60 Day IL - Elbow

Starting Pitchers

Will Warren (1-0, 5.14 ERA in 2025)

Allowed 9 hits (2 HR) and 8 ER with a 15:7 K/BB ratio in three 2025 starts.
Tossed 5.0 IP of 2 hit (1 HR) and 2 ER ball with 6:2 K/BB ratio vs. San Francisco last start.
This will be his first career start against the Tampa Bay Rays.

Taj Bradley (2-0, 3.71 ERA in 2025)

Allowed 12 hits (2 HR) and 7 ER with a 21:6 K/BB ratio in three 2025 starts.
Tossed 6.0 IP of 5 hit and 1 ER ball with 7:2 K/BB ratio vs. Atlanta last start.
1-1 with a 0.69 ERA and 12:4 K/BB ratio in 13.0 career IP thrown vs. New York.
2-0 with a 3.71 ERA and 21:6 K/BB ratio in 17.0 IP at George M. Steinbrenner Field.

Must-watch hitters

New York

With a bulk of the Yankees' current batting lineup yet to step into the box against Taj Bradley, we'll go right back to the well with Aaron Judge, who came through last night by hitting the game-winning homer against Kansas City.

Big hits normally come in bunches for New York's outfielder. Though he's yet to rake a single hit in six career plate appearances against Taj Bradley, he's seen his stuff well evidenced by the three walks taken with zero strikeouts.

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Tampa Bay

Brandon Lowe hasn't been very consistent for his fantasy supporters to start the year, but his bat should be targeted in this matchup against Will Warren, regardless of never having opposed him before.

The Rays' utility man has been much tougher against righties than lefties over the course of his career. He's slashing .269/.296/.442/.739 against right-handed pitching to date, with all three of his home runs coming against righties.

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Yankees vs. Rays Betting Odds

Thursday 4/17	Money Line	Run Line	Total Runs
New York Yankees	-110	-1.5 +145	O 9 -102
Tampa Bay Rays	-110	+1.5 -175	U 9 -118

Yankees vs. Rays expert picks and game prediction

With the Rays getting shutout on Wednesday to drop their second home series of the season, look for Tampa Bay to take to its quasi-home field and get the leg up in this series against New York.

DraftKings Sportsbook is offering a discounted rate on the home team with Taj Bradley the better arm in his matchup against Will Warren. New York's bullpen was also severely stressed in the three hotly contested wins against the Royals.

Yankees vs. Rays Prediction: Tampa Bay wins 6-3

About the author

Mike earned a Bachelor of Science in Human Biology from the University of Kansas with dreams of becoming an orthopedic surgeon and team physician. However, his career path took a different turn as he ventured into sports handicapping, writing, and editing.

While preparing for the MCAT, Mike applied to contribute to a site offering free sports picks, which proved to be a pivotal step. His success there garnered interest from larger platforms and startups. Despite his efforts, organic chemistry derailed his medical school ambitions, and he chose to shift fully into sports betting and fantasy sports content creation.

Over a 20-year career, Mike has navigated the highs and lows of professional sports betting. His experience spans working on a late-night sports talk radio show, covering the Chicago Rush in the Arena Football League, managing a content distribution company, owning and operating a vape shop, and creating one of the first profitable DFS affiliate sites—an endeavor that helped buy his current home.

When offline, Mike enjoys working out his green thumb, coaching his son’s sports teams, hosting tea parties with his daughter, and relaxing with his wife and friends. A die-hard Kansas Jayhawks fan, he also proudly bleeds Cubbie blue.

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Edited by Mike Rose