Yankees vs. Rays: Game 1 prediction, odds, injuries, and picks - August 19, 2025

The New York Yankees head to Tampa to take on the Rays in a critical AL East battle, hoping to continue their four-game road winning streak to another victory. Carlos Rodon heads up New York's staff, while Shane Baz will attempt to quiet the Yankees' power house offense.

Tampa will lean on Junior Caminero’s pop and Brandon Lowe’s clutch hitting to stay in contention. With the season series tilted 7-4 in New York’s favor, expect a tight, hard-fought battle where every swing and pitch could shift the momentum.

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Starting Pitchers

Carlos Rodon - Yankees

Rodon has been a stalwart this season for New York, going 12-7 with a 3.25 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 164 strikeouts in 146.2 innings.

In his last start against the Twins, he cruised on a single run on one hit and two walks over seven innings, fanning five. Rodon's velocity and movement make it difficult to square him up, providing the Yankees with a strong advantage on the hill.

Shane Baz - Rays

Baz has flashed brilliance for Tampa Bay in 2025, holding an 8-9 mark with a 4.93 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and 140 Ks in 135 frames.

His most recent outing versus the Athletics included him allowing five runs (four earned) on six hits and two bases on balls while fanning seven in seven frames. Baz will need to tap his slider and fastball command to shut down New York's potent offense.

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Hot Hitters to Watch

Jazz Chisholm - Yankees

Chisholm has been an electrifying force for New York in 2025, with a .236 average and 21 home runs, 56 RBIs and 21 stolen bases. His speed and power combination makes him a threat on the bases every time up and a vital run producer in the middle of the lineup.

Junior Caminero - Rays

Caminero remains the stalwart of Tampa Bay's offense with a .258 average, 35 home runs, 85 RBIs and 72 runs scored. His home-run ability and clutch hitting are the centerpiece of the Rays' offense, particularly against tough pitchers like Rodon.

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Injury Report

Rays Injuries

• Josh Lowe: day-to-day (oblique)
• Taylor Walls: 10-Day IL (groin)
• Jonny Deluca: 10-Day IL (hamstring)
• Jonathan Aranda: 10-Day IL (wrist)
• Stuart Fairchild: 10-Day IL (oblique)
• Manuel Rodriguez: 60-Day IL (forearm)
• Hunter Bigge: 60-Day IL (lat)
• Richie Palacios: 60-Day IL (knee)
• Shane McClanahan: 60-Day IL (tricep)
• Alex Faedo: 60-Day IL (shoulder)
• Nathan Lavender: 60-Day IL (elbow)

Yankees Injuries

• Amed Rosario: 10-Day IL (joint)
• Austin Slater: 10-Day IL (hamstring)
• Jonathan Loaisiga: 15-Day IL (back)
• Clarke Schmidt: 60-Day IL (forearm)
• Fernando Cruz: 15-Day IL (oblique)
• Ryan Yarbrough: 15-Day IL (oblique)
• Oswaldo Cabrera: 60-Day IL (ankle)
• Jake Cousins: 60-Day IL (elbow)
• Gerrit Cole: 60-Day IL (elbow)

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Current Odds (User-provided)

• Run Line: Yankees −1.5 (+118) | Rays +1.5 (−144)
• Total: Over 8.5 (−105) | Under 8.5 (−115)
• Moneyline: Yankees −149 | Rays +122

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Final Score Prediction & Best Bets

Final Score Guess: Yankees 5, Rays 3

Best Bets

1. Yankees Moneyline (−149) - Edge to the steadier frontline starter; New York’s offense has been carrying impact swings again, and Rodon’s WHIP/strikeout mix travels.
2. Under 8.5 (−115) - Rodon’s run prevention plus a Rays offense that can stall when not lifting the ball points slightly under, with bullpen paths to close it out.
3. Judge 2+ Total Bases - Elite current form and matchup leverage vs. a power righty who’s had recent traffic.