Key success factors for Team India in T20Is

Since World Cup 2015, there is a new kind of stat that has picked up everybody’s eyeball. It is called key success factors for the team. We all have seen stats such as ‘If X scores more than 30 runs, India wins 80% of the times’.

Well, being a statistics student all my life, I know that this is just a case of correlation and correlation is not causation. To put it very simply, the relationship between two things does not mean that one causes the other.

However, as a cricket fan, I love seeing the relationships between two events. Assuming that everybody else loves these kinds of success-factors stats, I curated some similar stats for the Indian batsmen playing in the World T20. I would cover a similar piece later for bowlers.

Virat Kohli

Undoubtedly, he is one of the best batsmen in T20I’s right now. His innings against Australia in a do-or-die match in the World T20 is beyond explanation. His stats speak very highly of him. He has played 37 innings for India in T20I’s and out of those 37 innings, he batted in the second innings 19 times. And out of these 19 matches, India won 15.

Surprisingly, out of 4 games that India lost, Virat scored 66 and 70 in two of them. His first innings record isn't as spectacular. He batted 20 times in the first innings and India lost 12 of them. Again, it isn't a blame – just a stats correlation.

Rohit Sharma

Another superstar of Indian batting. He has gone through many phases throughout his career and is one of the two Indians who have scored a century in all formats of the game. In T20I, if he scores more than 30 runs(which he has done 16 times out of 64 innings), India win 81% of the games(i.e. 13 out of 16 matches).

Results of Team India when Rohit scores more than 30 runs. Image Source: CillyPoint

Shikhar Dhawan

Dhawan has batted 22 times for India times in T20I’s. In 12 of these innings, he scored more than 10 runs. Notably, when he scores more than 10 runs, India win 84% of those games. A brilliant correlation. I would invite somebody to dig deeper to see if there is actually a causation here – example: if Dhawan scores more than 10 runs, that gives Kohli more space to free arms when he arrives.

Results of Team India when Dhawan scores more than 10 runs. Image Source: CillyPoint

MS Dhoni

And finally one of the greatest finishers in the sport. He has taken India across the line many times, but I am not very comfortable with the title looking at the stats. Out of 59 innings he played for India, he remained not out 30 times. And India won 22 of these games. That’s approximately 74%.

Not sure if that’s a great number or not considering the title people have given him.

Results for Team India when Dhoni is not out. Image Source: CillyPoint

Suresh Raina

Raina was the first Indian to hit a century for India in T20I’s. Out of the 52 innings he has played, he has remained not out 11 times. That’s almost once in four(or five innings – depends on how you round off). If he remains not out in a game, India wins 82% of the games

Results for Team India when Raina remains not out.Image Source: CillyPoint

Opening Partnership

A lot has been said about how good opening partnerships help the team get good results. For India, this is more than true. If India’s opening pair scores past 30, India wins 75% of the games.

Results for Team India when opening partnership is greater than 30 runs.Image Source: CillyPoint

And an additional bonus trivia – Whenever Nehra bats for India in T20I, India has lost the game. He has batted for India in 5 games and India went on to lose all those matches.