T20 World Cup: Predicting where teams in Group 1 will finish

Over the past few days, the excitement for the T20 World Cup has reached fever pitch. The first round of the competition culminated on Friday and the cricketing community has been treated to some mind-bowling cricketing action already.

That, though, has also meant that there is more clarity around the four teams that will be qualifying for the Super 12 stage, which begins with Australia clashing swords against South Africa on Saturday.

Courtesy of what transpired in the first round, Group 1 – long proclaimed as the “Group of Death” has become even more dangerous. Bangladesh and Sri Lanka have joined the likes of Australia, England, South Africa and the West Indies.

In essence, it seems a travesty that four of the aforementioned teams will have to miss out. Yet, in the environment of a T20 World Cup, this is perhaps what most teams would’ve prepared for, even before the groups were penciled down.

So with just a night’s sleep remaining before the Super 12 phase of the T20 World Cup begins, the time is ripe to delve deeper into the match-ups these sides offer and predict how this group might materialize. And, of course, earmark the two nations that would emerge from this rubble relatively unscathed to qualify for the semi-finals of the T20 World Cup.

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#6 Bangladesh

Can Shakib power Bangladesh to glory in the T20 World Cup?

Before the T20 World Cup, Bangladesh were touted as one of the dark horses to win the entire thing. Their bowling attack had done brilliantly against Australia and New Zealand and with pitches expected to bear a similar tinge of abrasiveness in the UAE, they seemed to be in fine fettle.

However, the twin successes against Australia and New Zealand masked their batting shortcomings – shortcomings that have since stuck out like a sore thumb, meaning that with five defining Super 12 matches coming up, the Tigers seem the least likely to qualify from Group 1 for the semi-finals of the T20 World Cup.

On paper, Bangladesh have a relatively favorable start to their campaign, considering they meet fellow qualifiers Sri Lanka at Sharjah. Yet, with the way the Islanders have been playing, the Tigers would be naïve to write them off. Moreover, at Sharjah, where both sets of spinners will get equal purchase, Bangladesh’s lack of batting firepower could prove to be their undoing.

Their next game is against England at Abu Dhabi – a game where their deficiencies might be exposed further. As they shift back to Sharjah for the encounter against the West Indies, it seems that they might have too much on their plate by then.

Having said that, there is no denying the quality in Bangladesh’s ranks and their proclivity to cause an almighty flutter at the T20 World Cup. However, the inconsistencies in their batting unit might just pull them down and might prove to be the ultimate tilting scale, as far as qualifications for the T20 World Cup semi-final are concerned.

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#5 Australia

Maxwell would hope to end Australia's T20 World Cup duck

Over the years, a T20 World Cup crown has remained the missing piece in Australia’s white-ball jigsaw. While there have been times when they’ve looked dominant (especially in 2007 and 2010), they’ve almost always fallen short when push has come to shove in a T20 World Cup.

This time, though, there aren’t many expectations from the Australian side, considering their first-choice stars haven’t played a lot of T20 cricket together. Batters of the ilk of David Warner, Glenn Maxwell and Steve Smith have been participating in T20 leagues, namely the IPL. But the different dynamics of featuring together for the national side is something that they might have to guard against.

Can Australia end their T20 World Cup hoodoo?

Prima facie, Australia seem to have a favorable draw in terms of the venues of their T20 World Cup games. Sharjah, which could’ve been a banana skin, has been avoided, meaning that the Aussies would hope to capitalize. The problem, however, is that they seem to struggle against any kind of spin and on any kind of surface – a weakness that will be mercilessly exploited.

Though Group 1 doesn’t have a lot of spin-friendly sides, it still houses Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. South Africa also have two decent spinners while the West Indies, armed with Akeal Hosain, Dwayne Bravo and Obed McCoy, can also cause Australia problems on sluggish surfaces.

A major positive for the Aussies is their fast-bowling battery, which comprises of Josh Hazlewood, Mitchell Starc and Pat Cummins. However, with them showing an inclination to bulk up their batting – something that comes at the expense of one of their pacers, they might not be able to utilize it as much.

So if early evidence is used as an indicator, it seems that that elusive T20 World Cup title could drift further away from Australia in the UAE.

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#4 Sri Lanka

Hasaranga has been sensational in the T20 World Cup so far (Pic Credits: ESPN Cricinfo)

A year ago, many would’ve scoffed at Sri Lanka’s prospects at the 2021 T20 World Cup. At the time, they were a team in turmoil, were shunting players at the drop of a hat and were switching captains every other day. Now, some sort of normalcy has been restored and they have put all their eggs in Dasun Shanaka’s basket. So far, the Sri Lankan skipper has delivered too.

While he hasn’t contributed majorly, he has ensured that there is a bit of cohesion in the Islanders’ ranks. Their batting, despite the patchy returns of Dinesh Chandimal and Kusal Perera, looks solid. Avishka Fernando seems to have come of age, whereas Pathum Nissanka has also played his part to perfection.

Wanindu Hasaranga, meanwhile, has illustrated why he is considered one of the most impressive young all-rounders in T20 cricket. Not only has he picked up wickets, he has also contributed handsomely with the willow.

Additionally, the Islanders play three of their five fixtures at Sharjah – a venue that might aid their spinners and might also help their batters, considering it would mirror what they usually find in Sri Lanka. More importantly, these games are against Bangladesh, England and South Africa – teams that have tended to struggle against high-quality spin attacks.

From that perspective, Hasaranga, in addition to Maheesh Theekshana, might have a huge role. And with the way they are bowling, it wouldn’t be too far fetched to suggest that Sri Lanka could make an almighty splash at Sharjah and indeed, the T20 World Cup.

That, though, doesn’t mean that the Islanders will end up winning the T20 World Cup altogether. There are still plenty of grey areas to address and usually, that particular process doesn’t happen overnight.

But as things stand, they seem best-placed to throw a spanner in the works when the Super 12 stage of the T20 World Cup begins.

#3 South Africa

A lot of South Africa's hopes will be pinned on de Kock

Much like Sri Lanka, South Africa weren’t deemed a side at the peak of their powers when 2021 began. Now, though, they seem to have stumbled upon the ideal formula leading into the T20 World Cup, meaning that the Proteas, in contrast to expectations, might just have a bigger say.

In the past editions, South Africa has almost always been considered favourites for the T20 World Cup title. Unfortunately, that hasn’t exactly translated into tangible achievements. This time, however, they have slipped under the radar – something that the Proteas might not be complaining about.

Their batting unit, powered by Quinton de Kock and Rassie van der Dussen, looks powerful. Both have portrayed the ability to graft and grind, while also being proactive, meaning that their adaptability isn’t an issue. Aiden Markram and David Miller have also excelled in the middle order lately.

The only problem might revolve around Temba Bavuma’s suitability to the side, both as a batter and as a captain. However, with South Africa having already shown immense faith, it would take a drastic turnaround for them to rethink that notion.

On the bowling front, the Proteas have the ability to blow oppositions away. Anrich Nortje has set alight whatever competition he has participated in, whereas Tabraiz Shamsi has also married consistency with his undeniable talent.

Dwaine Pretorious, Keshav Maharaj and Wiaan Mulder have been efficient if not extravagant, meaning that Kagiso Rabada’s form is the only worry for South Africa.

Speaking of Rabada, there were glimpses in the warm-up game against Pakistan that he was back to his best. If that prolongs into a purple patch remains to be seen but if Rabada is bowling to the best of his abilities, other teams might have a massive quandary to tackle at the T20 World Cup.

The only sticky point for the Proteas might be their past run-ins with pressure situations in T20 World Cups and how they’ve crumbled. The current crop of cricketers might not carry as much baggage but it would be interesting to see how they stack up against outfits such as England and the West Indies.

And from that perspective, it seems that this T20 World Cup might just have come a few months early for South Africa.

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#2 West Indies

Can Chris Gayle turn back the clock one final time?

On paper, the West Indies seem to boast the most belligerent squad at this year’s T20 World Cup. Blessed with firepower throughout, they have the quality and the wherewithal to bludgeon any team into submission at the T20 World Cup.

The problem, though, is that they seem to be stuck in the quicksand, with the two warm-up matches doing nothing to allay those fears.

Having said that, this West Indian outfit still has the requisite pedigree to turn up at the T20 World Cup because, well, that is what they did five years ago in India. While their preparations back then weren’t as woeful as they are now, they weren’t looked upon as massive favourites either.

This time, largely due to their star cast, they have been billed as one of the teams to watch out for. And considering the presence of Andre Russell, Chris Gayle, Dwayne Bravo, Evin Lewis, Kieron Pollard, Nicholas Pooran and Shimron Hetmyer, that isn’t surprising.

However, the West Indians need to evolve a mechanism to make the most of the resources at the T20 World Cup. At the moment, there isn’t a lot to hint that they are closer to finding a solution, but with this West Indian outfit, one simply doesn’t know when they will flick a switch.

If they do, they will enjoy the conditions at Abu Dhabi and Dubai, considering the relatively quick nature of the surfaces. At Sharjah, the pitch might impede their stroke-play but they will be helped by the ground dimensions.

Additionally, their biggest problems have come against spin. With Group 1 not housing the likes of Afghanistan, India and Pakistan, the West Indies might just be let off the hook.

Though Sri Lanka and South Africa can grind down the Caribbean outfit at the T20 World Cup, one feels that the defending champions’ belligerence, especially in one-off matches, might be enough to offset any potential weakness against spin.

The fact that the West Indies are proud T20 World Cup champions also gives them an added edge and perhaps, pits them as the second likeliest team to qualify from Group 1 of the T20 World Cup.

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#1 England

Eoin Morgan hasn't set the world alight lately

Ever since lifting the 2019 ICC Cricket World Cup, England have, rather unabashedly, signaled their intentions of world white-ball domination. So much so that players have been rested from the longest format to allow the Three Lions to prepare for the T20 World Cup.

England seem well prepare for the T20 World Cup, despite injuries

They’ve encountered a few blips on the road to the T20 World Cup, though, with Ben Stokes and Jofra Archer not available for the competition. Despite their absences, they seem well-equipped to conquer what they have billed as the final frontier in limited-overs cricket.

To that end, the form of Jos Buttler is very refreshing, considering he had been away from the game since the Test series against India. Not only has he looked composed at the crease, but he seems to be in sync with the potential demands of the T20 World Cup.

Jason Roy has been his effervescent self at the top of the order. While Dawid Malan’s lack of runs might cause a furrowed brow, England have Jonny Bairstow and Moeen Ali to counter it.

Eoin Morgan, too, will have a lot to prove after enduring a sub-standard year in the shortest format. With the England captain often saving his best for the biggest stage, though, that might not be as big an issue as portrayed on the outside.

Bowling wise, England will definitely feel the pinch at the T20 World Cup, considering Archer and Stokes are missing from the fold. In Adil Rashid, Chris Woakes and Mark Wood, however, they have the ingredients to be a decent bowling unit – a unit that does what is expected of them without setting the T20 World Cup ablaze.

The biggest headache for oppositions, though, might be a certain Liam Livingstone. The all-rounder didn’t score a lot during the IPL but in English colours, he is a different beast, considering the freedom the set-up accords him. If he bats like he did in the English summer, he could single-handedly win the Three Lions a couple of games at the T20 World Cup.

Thus, it seems that England have enough match-winners to top Group 1 of the T20 World Cup and each also seems to have developed tactical flexibility – because of their personal experiences but also due to them playing together for a sustained period.

If the Three Lions can clinch the T20 World Cup is another matter altogether. However, they shouldn’t really have any problems getting out of the “Group of Death” at the T20 World Cup.