Will India make it to the Semi-final? – Permutations and Combinations

With Group 1 set to be settled today and the teams to progress being decided, the focus shifts to Group 2. Tomorrow is going to be the D-Day for Group 2 with all teams having a realistic chance of making it to the semi final. The first match will feature Australia and Pakistan, second being an India-South Africa encounter. Both matches take place at the Premadasa stadium which has favoured the team batting second in the tournament. In the super eights, all the 4 matches have gone to the team batting second. Players have been quoted as saying, “It’s a little easier to bat under the lights. The ball comes on to the bat pretty nicely”. There is also a danger of rain at the venue which makes the case of batting second even stronger. So, there’s no question of toss not having a little say in the match. There are going to be absolutely no prizes for guessing what the captain winning the toss will chose to do.

There are speculations all around as to who will make it to the semis. It is going to be an interesting day. With experts voicing their opinions, fans guessing, it’s getting even better.

To make a call on who goes through, we need to look at the various possible permutations and combinations:

1) If Australia beat Pakistan and India beat South Africa, India and Australia will go through.

2) If Australia beat Pakistan and South Africa beat India, Australia will definitely go through and the Net Run Rate (NRR) will come into play for deciding the second team. The team with the better NRR goes.

3) If Pakistan beat Australia and India beat South Africa, 3 teams (Pakistan, India and Australia) will be on 4 points and the NRR will decide on which 2 go through.

4) If Pakistan beat Australia and South Africa beat India, India crash out handing Australia and Pakistan the Semi final spots.

5) If Australia beat Pakistan and India v/s South Africa is washed out, Australia and India go through.

6) If both Australia v/s Pakistan and India v/s South Africa are washed out, Australia go through on points and Pakistan on NRR.

On form, even an idiot would pick Australia to beat Pakistan. Pakistan have been poor in the Super eights. They won their first game courtesy an escape route shown by South Africa and lost the 2^nd pretty badly. This would leave 2 routes for India to go through:

1) India beat South Africa.2) India loses, but somehow maintains a better NRR than Pakistan.

Here, I am not taking into account the rain factor.

No cricket fan would want the rain to decide the semi finalists. It’s the player’s performance, the quality at exhibition, the excitement which makes fans glued to their TV sets.

India will have the advantage of the knowledge of in what time to get or restrict, given the result of the first game. India will then have their work cut out against the Proteas. They started the tournament in lightning fashion, but seemed to have lost it all coming to the Super eights. They have always been known for succumbing under pressure and the saying “Cometh the hour, cometh the man”; never seem to have any relation with them. Hence, India will start favourites given their performance against Pakistan, but that shouldn’t be talked too much about as there is a different feel, sense and enthusiasm about an Indo-Pak match and form is lost somewhere in that. Also, the pressure has always taken a toll on the Proteas and Indians will be hoping tomorrow is no different. But, one thing is for sure, India is sure to face a stern test against the South African bowling attack. The battle between Kohli and Morkel, Sehwag and Steyn is anticipated to be one to die for.

My Prediction:

Australia will beat PakistanIndia will beat South Africa.

Australia go through as group winners.India go through as group runners-up.

Standings (as of now)

Group 2:

Teams	Mat	Won	Lost	Tied	N/R	Pts	Net RR
Australia	2	2	0	0	0	4	+1.712
Pakistan	2	1	1	0	0	2	-0.426
India	2	1	1	0	0	2	-0.452
South Africa	2	0	2	0	0	0	-0.605

Probable Indian Lineup:

Sehwag, Gambhir, Kohli, Yuvraj, Sharma, Dhoni (c,wk), Raina, Pathan, Ashwin, Balaji, Zaheer

Although I feel it won’t be a bad idea for India to drop either of Raina or Sharma to draft in another spinner, may be Bhajji. The 5 bowler theory is always going to be fruitful in the shorter format of the game as you are always going to waste a batsman or two if you play with 7.