Why do some fans think the GTA 6 "delay" is real?

The first official GTA 6 trailer released by Rockstar Games in December 2023 confirmed the game's release year as 2025. The developer's parent company, Take-Two Interactive, has now confirmed that the highly anticipated Grand Theft Auto sequel will arrive during Fall next year. Although there have been no mentions of a delay by Rockstar or Take-Two, some believe that the title might have been internally delayed.

The reasoning behind it is how Take-Two's expected Net Booking revenue for Fiscal Year 2025 (FY25) decreased over time. With that said, let's take a closer look at why some fans think the GTA 6 "delay" is real.

Note - This article is purely speculative and is based on fan theories.

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Fans think GTA 6 might have been internally delayed from early 2025 to fall 2025

Take-Two Interactive revealed at their May 2023 earnings call that they expected eight billion dollars in Net Bookings in FY25. While Grand Theft Auto 6 wasn't announced to release in this period, which would last through early 2025, fans believed that only its launch would help Take-Two generate the planned revenue.

That said, the expected Net Bookings revenue for FY25 was changed from eight billion to around seven billion dollars as revealed during Take-Two's February 2024 earnings call.

This was when fans first started suspecting that the GTA 6 release window might fall outside of FY25. Reports also surfaced soon after, claiming that the game's development was likely falling behind schedule and its launch could get delayed.

Nevertheless, the absence of any official announcement meant that fans were still hopeful of getting their hands on the next Grand Theft Auto title as early as possible. Unfortunately, it seems that the reports were correct as it was revealed at Take-Two's latest earnings call, held on May 16, 2024, that the game will indeed arrive in Fall of Calendar Year 2025.

Some may argue that the Fall 2025 release window could have always been the plan. Major Rockstar titles like GTA 5 and Red Dead Redemption 2 themselves have arrived in the latter halves of their respective release years.

That said, the suspicions of GTA 6 getting internally delayed are also supported by Take-Two's latest FY25 Net Bookings expectations, which are now much lower than the original figure. Here's a statement from Rockstar's parent company about their latest expected FY25 Net Bookings revenue:

"As we enter Fiscal 2025 with positive momentum, we expect to deliver Net Bookings of $5.55 to $5.65 billion. Our outlook reflects a narrowing of Rockstar Games' previously established window of Calendar 2025 to Fall of Calendar 2025 for Grand Theft Auto VI."

Therefore, the fan theory of GTA 6 being pushed back from an initially planned early 2025 release window seems quite compelling.

Nevertheless, the lack of an official delay-related statement from Rockstar Games or Take-Two Interactive means that these fan theories, no matter how convincing, cannot be completely confirmed.