When it comes to NFL betting, the public tends to generally agree on what they believe the outcome of a game will be.
This is a breakdown of understanding what influences the public’s betting trends in the NFL and what you should do with that information.
What is Public Betting?
NFL public betting refers to the NFL consensus picks by the general population. It means that most of the bets for a game are on one side.
There are two ways to assess public betting, by the percentage of bets and by the percentage of money wagered.
Take this game between the Buccaneers and the Ravens, for example.
You can see that 84% of the bets against the spread are going toward the Ravens. This means that most people that are betting on the spread have put their money on the Ravens to cover.
Although the percentage of money isn’t displayed, let’s say that 75% of the money is going toward the Ravens too. This means that if the Ravens win against the spread, the sportsbook will probably lose money.
The NFL public betting and money percentages are in consensus in that instance, favoring the Ravens. NFL public betting is all about what most people favor on one side of a bet, especially if the percentages are heavily skewed towards one side.
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What Factors Influence Public Betting Trends?
Several factors affect the NFL betting consensus. Here are some of the most common:
Team Reputation: Famous and popular teams tend to see more action, especially among casual fans. On the flip side, teams with poor reputations typically aren’t trusted by the NFL betting public.
Stars: Having a star can sway public opinion significantly. Players like Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes have a massive impact on a game, and bettors feel safe betting on them.
Media Narrative: How the media views and talks about teams influence NFL public betting percentages. What talking heads say about a team throughout the week changes a lot of opinions, which affects how they bet.
Home advantage: Some people hold home-field advantage in high regard in the NFL, regardless of whether the team actually performs better at home or not.
Gambling psychology: People like to bet on things they want to root for. Favorite teams, established powerhouses, and scoring are all bet on more by the public.
What is Betting Against the Public?
Some bettors love to bet against the public consensus, meaning that whichever side is the NFL public betting favorite, they will take the opposite side.
Another term for this is “fading the public,” a key basic betting term. When you fade the public, you’re betting on the public being wrong.
So, using the same game between the Ravens and Bucs, you would take the Bucs against the spread if you were to fade the public.
A favorite is a team that is considered the most likely to win the game. If you fade the public against a favorite, you would be betting on the underdog. The underdog is the odds-on favorite to lose. They carry better odds on the Moneyline, so this is a good way to earn a nice payout.
If the public is all-in on an underdog, then fading the public would see you betting on the favorite. A lot of underdogs become popular with the public when they start playing well for a stretch, even if they aren’t usually good.
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Betting Against the Public in the NFL
Over/Unders
Betting against the public for the over/under entails taking whichever side opposes where the public thinks the points will go. Take a game between the Bills and Chiefs with the total set at 54.5.
If 73% of bettors are taking the over on that anticipating a shootout, you would take the under. If the game ended 24-20, you would successfully beat the public.
Moneyline
Fading the public on the NFL Moneyline means just taking the team that most people think will lose.
If the Colts are facing the Jaguars and 82% of the Moneyline picks are the Colts, you would take the Jaguars betting against the public. All they would need to do is win the game, the margin doesn’t matter.
Point Spreads
Unlike the Moneyline, NFL betting lines for spread picks to make the margin of victory significant. Just like with the other two, you take the less bet upon the team against the spread when trying to fade the public.
For the Ravens and Buccaneers example above, you would be fading the public if you took the Buccaneers to cover, as they only received 16% of the action. If they were to only lose by one point, or win the game, your bet would win.
Should You Fade NFL Public Bets
Fading the public is a strategy that works when done right. It’s also a strategy that can backfire if done blindly.
Just like with everything, there are pros and cons to fading the public.
Pros
Can be very profitable, especially when successfully betting on an underdog’s Moneyline
You can catch line movement on a favorite that gives them better odds as sportsbooks attempt to balance their book
There will sometimes be sportsbook offers against the public trying to force equal action
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Cons
It’s difficult to master the right situation for this strategy
The research needed to fade the public well can be time consuming
You can bet against what should be obvious, which is why the public favors it
