US Olympic Swimming Trials: Analyzing Zane Grothe's chances of making it to the Tokyo Olympics

Zane Grothe failed to qualify for the final in the 400m freestyle category at the U.S. Olympic Swimming Trials. However, the 29-year-old is still in the fray to make it to the Tokyo Olympics.

Since 1984, the top two at the trials in each category have qualified for the Olympic Games. In the ongoing trials, only Kieran Smith has hit the minimum qualification time of 3:46.78 in the 400m freestyle category to qualify for the Olympics, amongst US swimmers.

According to the FINA rules, this time must be achieved within a period of March 1, 2019, and June 27, 2021.

Kieran Smith won the 400m freestyle and booked his place for the Tokyo Olympics. The 21-year-old completed the swim in 3:44.86 to win the 400m freestyle event.

“All that was going through my head the last 100 [meters] was I’m about to be an Olympian,” Smith said.

Since March 2019, Zane Grothe has been the only American swimmer other than Smith to achieve the Olympic qualification time. But the former finished 11th in the preliminary trials and was eliminated from the event.

If no other swimmers complete the swim within the qualification time, Zane Grothe will be on the plane to Japan. Zane Grothe swam in 3:45.76 at the World Championships in 2019.

There is no such rule that a swimmer must make the final two of the U.S Olympic Trials to qualify for the Olympics.

Swimmers who could qualify for the Olympics other than Zane Grothe

Jake Mitchell finished second at the trials

Jake Mitchell finished in second place but could edge Zane Grothe out if he achieves the aforementioned qualification time in the 400m freestyle finals at the Trials or a time trial event. Mitchell completed the swim with a time of 3:48.17 and finished behind Kieran Smith.

“There’s going to be a lot less nerves. I know that I’m swimming fast,” said Mitchell as he talked about the possibility of a time trial. The time trial can only happen if approved by FINA.

An American swimmer can make it to the Tokyo Games, even if he doesn’t swim faster than Zane Grothe’s time at the World Championships. This can happen if the swimmer has finished above Grothe at the U.S Olympic Trials.

So 9 swimmers - Ross Dant, Chris Wieser, Trey Freeman, Brooks Fail, Jake Mitchell, Andrew Abruzzo, Mitch D’Arrigo, Jake Magahey, and Coby Carrozza - are eligible to qualify for the Olympics.

However, unless they can beat the Olympic qualification time, they will not qualify ahead of Grothe.

There are a couple of FINA-approved tournaments coming up this month. These will give a chance to American swimmers, other than Zane Grothe, to qualify for the Olympics. Mission Viejo will be held on June 26-27 while another FINA meet, In the Bahamas, is scheduled to be held on June 24.

The Olympic qualification period ends on June 27, so these are the last tournaments for the US swimmers to make the cut.