NHL analyst weighs in on chances of Mitch Marner leaving Maple Leafs amid free agency speculation

The Toronto Maple Leafs retained Mitch Marner through the trade deadline. Now, they'll continue negotiating a possible extension with him before he enters free agency, where he could be a high-value target for a lot of teams.

Hockey insider Bryan Hayes detailed the options for both Marner and the Leafs, and he speculated on the chances that they're able to come to an agreement and avoid free agency.

The NHL insider said on TSN on Tuesday (4:05):

"I think there's a 20% chance Marner leaves. I think at one in five he decides you know 'I got a young family I want to get out of here. I want to be in a different, you know, city, different state. I maybe want to move to this. I don't know and it's the fish bowl it's just not working for me.'

"He determines regardless of what the Leafs are willing to give him."

Marner was reportedly asked to waive his no-trade clause for a possible Mikko Rantanen deal with the Carolina Hurricanes, but that never transpired. He remains with the Leafs for now, but a big free-agency decision is looming.

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NHL analyst ponders what Leafs will spend on if they don't re-sign Mitch Marner

Not re-signing Mitch Marner in free agency would save the Toronto Maple Leafs some money, but it would cost them a star player. If they do save that money, one NHL insider is unsure what they're saving it for.

The Maple Leafs haven't extended Mitch Marner (Imagn)

He believes the Mikko Rantanen swap, which was almost a star for star trade, might've been the only way Toronto wanted to part with Marner. So if they didn't, and they don't re-sign him, who's out there?

Matt Larkin of Daily Faceoff said:

"If the Leafs don’t re-sign Marner this offseason, what will they do with the cap space? The cap jumps from $88 million to $95.5 million for 2025-26.

"The Leafs have seven defensemen already locked up next year and beyond in Carlo, Morgan Rielly, Chris Tanev, Jake McCabe, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Simon Benoit, and Philippe Myers."

He also noted that Anthony Stolarz and Joseph Woll have the goal locked down for now, so there's no glaring need to spend on anything, which makes it curious that the Leafs haven't locked down Marner.