Three reasons why Sheldon Keefe's firing would be a mistake by the Toronto Maple Leafs

The Toronto Maple Leafs have one of the best cores in the NHL, headlined by Auston Matthews, William Nylander, Mitch Marner, and John Tavares. However, since 2003-04, the team has won one playoff series and owns the NHL's longest championship drought at 57 years.

Unfortunately, this season's team is failing to take the next step. Whether it's blowing leads and losing games or just not playing with enough passion to outskate opponents, there are questions about whether the 2023-24 Maple Leafs are legitimate Stanley Cup contenders.

Although they are in line for a favorable playoff matchup, the Maple Leafs are not exceeding expectations, leaving many in the hockey community to wonder if Sheldon Keefe is on the hot seat and could soon be relieved of his duties.

Here, let's look at three reasons why firing Keefe could be the wrong move at this point of the season.

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3 reasons why Sheldon Keefe's firing would be a mistake by the Toronto Maple Leafs

#3. Roster construction and cap constraints are not his fault

Keefe is only the head coach of the Maple Leafs and doesn't sign players to contracts. Under the previous general manager, Kyle Dubas, and the current one run by Brad Treliving, the team has signed four players to 48.5% of their cap space.

Toronto Maple Leafs

To remain competitive in today's NHL, teams must spread their salaries around and not commit too much money to just a handful of players, leaving other critical positions vulnerable, like goaltending. Last year, Ilya Samsonov bet on himself and helped the Maple Leafs to the second round, securing a new deal through arbitration the previous season.

Toronto has only one netminder on the payroll for next season: unproven Joseph Woll, who is out with a lower-body injury. Keefe is not responsible for inking these players to deals, just getting the most of them while under contract. Despite a winning record, the club is scrapping with third-string Martin Jones, handling most of the assignments right now.

#2. Superstar players failing to live up to expectations

Nylander signed a $92 million eight-year extension with the Maple Leafs on Jan. 8, 2024. The following day, he collected three assists against the San Jose Sharks and has been pointless in the three games since then. Meanwhile, team captain Tavares has just six points in a month of hockey, with a minus-seven rating, and recently played a season-low 14:00 minutes.

John Tavares

As expected, Matthews is leading the NHL in goals, but if he's not lighting the lamp, he hasn't contributed much on the scoresheet, with just four goals and no assists in seven games in 2024. Statistically, Marner is the only one out of the core four consistently producing points in 26 games this year.

As the head coach, Keefe is responsible for getting these players going and keeping them productive throughout the season. Realistically, all four are superstar players in the NHL and can be better than they are right now.

However, there is also a limit to what Keefe can get out of them. If the players don't have it themselves to find the next level, they don't fit within the system and can bring everyone down. Usually, this leads to a coaching change, but it's not always the coach's fault, with liability falling back to the players.

#1. Keefe is a winner, and releasing him could haunt the Maple Leafs

Keefe is 43 years old and has been coaching professionally since 2012, starting with the OHL and moving to the AHL, where he won the Calder Cup in 2017-18. Although he has yet to win the Stanley Cup, he's the only coach in recent Maple Leafs' history to get the team a first-round playoff victory.

Sheldon Keefe

Whether he survives the remainder of the 2023-24 season or gets the axe beforehand, Keefe won't be unemployed for long. His former general manager, Dubas, who hired him, is now running the Pittsburgh Penguins and could have a coaching vacancy, which Keefe could fill at a moment's notice.

Although he won't leave Toronto to go to a rebuilding team like the San Jose Sharks, he could end up with another Eastern Conference contending team (like Pittsburgh) and coach that team to a win over Toronto in the playoffs, adding misery to one of the longest-suffering fanbases in professional sports.