Why Alex Bregman could do better with Red Sox than Astros? Exploring ballpark factors, teammates, and more

Alex Bregman, for the first time in his career, is going to play for a different team. He left the Houston Astros in free agency and signed with the Boston Red Sox. The important question now is whether or not that will be good for his production.

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Ballpark factors

According to BaseballSavant's Park Factors, there is only one stadium more conducive to offense than Fenway Park, and that's Coors Field. That bodes well for Bregman's continued success in Boston.

Boston has a park factor of 107, which is five shy of Colorado. A neutral stadium carries a park factor of 100, so this move to Fenway already means Bregman will not see a drop-off.

For comparison, Minute Maid Park in Houston has a park factor of 100. It's neither hitter nor pitcher-friendly. Bregman's offense should see an uptick just because he's hitting in Fenway.

His BaseballSavant page indicates that he would've hit four fewer home runs last year in Fenway. The Green Monster is close to home, but it's very tall, so he might end up with a lot of doubles. The Crawford Boxes in Houston are close to home and normal in height, which leads to some cheaper home runs.

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Teammates around Alex Bregman

The Boston Red Sox had a very good offense last year. They've essentially swapped out Tyler O'Neill for Alex Bregman in 2025 and kept virtually the same offense.

In Boston, he will likely be hitting second. That puts him right in front of Rafael Devers, one of the best hitters in the American League. He is, however, not as fearsome as Yordan Alvarez, so pitchers won't give him quite as many pitches to hit out of fear of who's next as they did in Houston.

Alex Bregman won't be in front of Yordan Alvarez (Imagn)

Batting ahead of Bregman last year was Jose Altuve. This year, it will be Jarren Duran. The Red Sox outfielder had a 129 wRC+. He was also on base 34.2% of the time and stole 34 bases.

Altuve had a 127 wRC+ in 2024. He was on base 35% of the time and stole 22 bases. This indicates that the production ahead of Bregman won't change much, though Altuve is on the decline and Duran is likely on the ascension.

Additionally, the lineup in Houston was arguably more star-studded. He got to hit in a lineup with Altuve, Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, and Yainer Diaz. Now, Bregman hits with Duran, Devers, Trevor Story, and Triston Casas.

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Defensive change

Alex Bregman is likely to move to second base this season. He has been average there in a very small sample size (less than 35 career innings there, and none since 2018). It is not a significantly harder position to play than third base, so his focus on a new position shouldn't impact his production much.

Verdict: Alex Bregman is in a better ballpark for offense with a slightly worse surrounding cast. Still, the venue change can't be overstated, so Bregman should have a better year this year than he did last year.