2024 PGA Championship winning score prediction: A look at the probable scorecard based on past finishes

The 2024 PGA Championship began on Thursday, May 16, with Michael Block teeing off from the first hole. He started with a bogey, while his groupmates Shaun Micheel and Luke Donald began with a par and a birdie, respectively, at Valhalla Golf Club.

Last year, the PGA Championship concluded with Brooks Koepka firing a 9-under 271 over the four days at Oak Hill, which was the lowest under-par score since Collin Morikawa's 13-under 267 during his win in 2020. Koepka averaged 67.75 in his four rounds at the tournament.

Speaking of past results, Justin Thomas averaged 68.75 in 2022, Phil Mickelson averaged 70.5 in 2021, and Collin Morikawa averaged 66.75 per round in 2021. If we look at the last 10-year pattern, the average score per round is 67.25 for the PGA champions. This means the average score per round for the winner is expected to be 4-under par this year on a par-71 golf course at Valhalla Golf Club.

In the past decade, Brooks Koepka in 2018 (66) averaged the least, while Justin Thomas in 2017 (69) averaged the highest among the winners. The last time the PGA Championship took place at the Valhalla Golf Club, Rory McIlroy averaged 67 per round to clinch his fourth Major championship triumph.

Here's the average score per round of each winner of the PGA Championship in the past decade:

• 2023. Brooks Koepka: 67.75
• 2022. Justin Thomas: 68.75
• 2021. Phil Mickelson: 70.5
• 2020. Collin Morikawa: 66.75
• 2019. Brooks Koepka: 68
• 2018. Brooks Koepka: 66
• 2017. Justin Thomas: 69
• 2016. Jimmy Walker: 66.5
• 2015. Jason Day: 67
• 2014. Rory McIlroy: 67

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What are the odds of the PGA Championship 2024? Odds explored

Here are the odds for the PGA Championship 2024 (as per ESPN bet):

• Scottie Scheffler: +425
• Rory McIlroy: +700
• Brooks Koepka: +1400
• Xander Schauffele: +1400
• Jon Rahm: +1800
• Ludvig Åberg: +2000
• Bryson DeChambeau: +2500
• Max Homa: +2800
• Collin Morikawa: +3000
• Joaquín Niemann: +3300
• Cameron Smith: +3500
• Patrick Cantlay: +3500
• Tommy Fleetwood: +3500
• Viktor Hovland: +4000
• Wyndham Clark: +4000
• Cameron Young: +4500
• Justin Thomas: +4500
• Tyrrell Hatton: +5000
• Will Zalatoris: +5500
• Byeong Hun An: +6000
• Hideki Matsuyama: +6000
• Sam Burns: +6000
• Tony Finau: +6000
• Jason Day: +6600
• Jordan Spieth: +7000
• Matt Fitzpatrick: +7000
• Min Woo Lee: +7000
• Sahith Theegala: +7000
• Sepp Straka: +7000
• Si Woo Kim: +7000
• Dustin Johnson: +7500
• Corey Conners: +8000
• Sungjae Im: +8000
• Talor Gooch: +8000
• Akshay Bhatia: +10000
• Patrick Reed: +10000
• Russell Henley: +10000
• Shane Lowry: +10000
• Kurt Kitayama: +11000
• Christiaan Bezuidenhout: +12500
• Denny McCarthy: +12500
• Rickie Fowler: +12500
• Stephan Jaeger: +12500
• Tom Kim: +12500
• Adam Schenk: +15000
• Adam Scott: +15000
• Adrian Meronk: +15000
• Alex Noren: +15000
• Brian Harman: +15000
• Cam Davis: +15000
• Chris Kirk: +15000
• Harris English: +15000
• Nicolai Højgaard: +15000