2023 NFL Breakouts: Second and third-year offensive players ready to explode ft. Desmond Ridder, George Pickens and more

#3, Terrace Marshall Jr., Carolina Panthers (WR)

Terrace Marshall

A former five-star recruit, Terrace Marshall Jr. was slotted in behind Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase at LSU, but still put up 1,400 yards and 23 touchdowns across his final two seasons with the Tigers. He was then selected 59th overall as a junior in the 2021 NFL draft.

Looking at his early outputs as a pro, they aren’t where you’d like them to be generally, but he already took a massive jump from his first to his second season. He went from catching 17 of 30 targets for 138 yards and no touchdowns as a rookie to hauling in 28 of 47 looks for 490 yards and one TD this past year (in 13 and 14 games respectively).

Part of that was his snap rate (when available) increased from 48 to 76 percent, but he also made the most of his opportunities despite catching passes from quarterbacks that finished between 39th and 48th respectively in EPA per play (with at least 100+ plays) – Sam Darnold, P.J. Walker, Cam Newton (3.0) and Baker Mayfield.

Marshall converted 24 of those 28 receptions into first downs, even though 71.2% of his yardage came before the catch, as a very vertically-oriented target. Among the eight Panthers skill-position players with at least 20 targets last season, Marshall finished behind only Laviska Shenault – a gadget-type of player – with a passer rating of 102.3 when targeted.

Playing a major role in the ascent of this receiver heading into year three is that his usage saw a drastic shift in terms of alignment, as he went from spending just 38.8% of snaps on the outside in 2021 to 90.7% last season, while his yards per route run tripled (from 0.5 to 1.5 per). And looking at his depth of target in relation to the success on those, he actually was more effective the deeper his routes were, as his PFF grade actually increased from behind the line of scrimmage to 0-9, 10-19 and finally 20+ yards.

Looking at the entire NFL and players with 20+ targets, his 10.4 yards per target and 17.5 yards per reception ranked fifth and sixth respectively. And diving into the Next Gen Stats database, he was tied with Ja’Marr Chase, A.J. Brown and Garrett Wilson with an average of 2.6 yards of separation last season, whilst having the highest ADOT among those guys at 12.5 yards.

He was regularly asked to pull the deep coverage with skinny posts, to open up receivers working across the field from the opposite side, particularly off play-action. And defenses showed him plenty of respect, rarely allowing him to be isolated on the backside of three-by-one sets, with a safety clouding over the top.

You see Marshall step behind the inside foot to be able to push off and aim towards the outside edge of the corner on fades, in order to get to their hip level. Plus, then off that he packs a pretty wicked double-release as he plants with the outside foot and jumps inside of his man, who's flipping towards the sideline, making him a tough cover on streak routes.

He’s pretty sudden off the line, to create that instant separation after the snap when running shallow crossers from reduced splits. And he packs a beautiful double-up with that outside foot when trying to beat inside-shade press on slant routes.

For a fairly tall receiver, Marshall bends off either foot with ease, as he’s making those more rounded speed cuts, creating openings for the ball to arrive on quick-breaking routes against soft coverage, but also on deeper in-cuts after pushing the corner vertically. The way I do still really like him being deployed in the slot is as a vertical component, blowing by hook/overhang defenders rapidly and splitting three-deep coverages.

What sticks out about the way Marshall catches the ball is his body control to sort of disconnect his upper from his lower half when passes were slightly off target and how rapidly he pulls the ball into his frame, in order to not allow opponents to rake it out of his hands.

While his 61.0% contested catch rate from college hasn’t translated to the pros yet, he’s had a couple of impressive grabs off the backside of defenders and going to the ground. He was targeted quite a few times on those cover-two hole-shots, where he displayed the toughness to attack the ball in the air and hold onto it with the safety barreling over.

Moreover, he features a tight turn up the field, doesn’t shy away from accelerating into awaiting defenders and has the sturdy frame to clear arm tackles. Marshall is an excellent positional blocker, who consistently showcases appropriate patience to stay in front of and wall off defenders, forcing them to work around him.

If they do get too close and Marshall latches his hands into their frame, he typically stays engaged. You see him put slot defenders on the turf, when cracking back on perimeter-oriented plays, such as those swing screens Carolina threw off orbit motion to Laviska Shenault constantly late in the year.

The Panthers didn’t shy away from putting him in reduced splits or motioning him to the end of the line, taking care of the point man, or peeling back on linebackers with at least solid success. If the picture changes or he misses his initial assignment, Marshall is looking for work anyway rather than taking the play off.

On a less positive note, against straight press or defenders slightly shaded towards the sideline, Marshall wastes too much time trying to get into his vertical outside releases, stutter-stepping off the line. I would like to see him stack the corner in an earlier phase of the route. You also see it when he gets impeded in his progress and defers to taking a wider path around the flat-defender in cover two.

Marshall isn’t somebody you want to target on too many curl routes, because the way he cuts down his strides and the time it takes to snap back towards the QB invites his defender back into the picture.

He only hauled in only 7 of 19 contested targets last year. He would certainly benefit from using late eyes and hands when he does have a step on his man vertically, to where he doesn’t tip off the corner, being able to turn and locate the football, in order to make a play on it.

Hand-fighting mid-route and in general, to position himself for the catch are things he should get more active/aggressive with. His jump-stop technique is pretty good, while combining a 39-inch vertical jump with 33-inch arms gives him a nice 50-50 ball profile. But his 35% contested rate so far doesn’t match up to that.

With the ball in his hands, Marshall only forced four missed tackles in 2022 and one the year prior. Plus, he fumbled twice last season and dropped three of 31 catchable targets.

I think there’s a pretty defined player profile, that has proven to be successful at the NFL level, as a solidly built vertical receiver, who has plenty of upside as a ball-winner down the field as he continues to work on his craft. The reason he hasn’t “hit” as much as you’d like to see yet is largely based on the offense running kind of stale in terms of the designs they were using and the lackluster quarterback play.

In particular, he had a bunch of passes placed behind him on routes toward the middle of the field and a lot of the locations of those deeper targets forced Marshall to win through more excessive contact than necessary.

Now with Bryce Young – and even Andy Dalton, if he’s in the lineup for certain stretches – we can expect a lot more consistent accuracy. Looking at the route this receiver excelled most at during his time at LSU – the go ball as the flanker in three-by-one sets – Bryce, in particular, may not have a rocket arm, but the way he can get it up early and find the right trajectory, that could be a staple on the menu if teams leave Marshall isolated on the perimeter.

While he’s not a make-you-miss type of guy after the grab, among pass-catchers with 50+ targets, Marshall was tied for 19th in average YAC above expectation (1.2 yards per), according to Next Gen Stats.