2023 NFL Breakouts: Second and third-year offensive players ready to explode ft. Desmond Ridder, George Pickens and more

#4, George Pickens, Pittsburgh Steelers (WR)

George Pickens could breakout for the Pittsburgh Steelers in the 2023 NFL season

George Pickens only turned 22 years old in early March after entering the 2022 draft coming off a junior year where he only appeared in four games (due to recovering from a torn ACL suffered during spring practice). That was after setting the Georgia freshman receiving record with 727 yards as a top-50 overall recruit and following that up with 513 yards across eight years in year two with the Bulldogs.

So with a couple of big grabs downfield in both the SEC and National Championship games, he still ended up going pretty high at 52nd overall. As a rookie in Pittsburgh, he caught 52 passes for 801 yards and four touchdowns, plus three rush attempts for 24 passes and one more score.

He was highly effective on those opportunities, spending 87.7% of his snaps out wide. Not only did he turn 40 of 55 touches this past season into first downs, but a massive 87 percent of receiving total as a rookie came through the air, rather than after the catch, and he had the NFL’s third-highest average depth of target (14.7 yards) among players with 50+ targets.

Considering only three other teams averaged fewer yards per pass attempt than Pittsburgh, those numbers actually stand out even more glaringly.

According to Next Gen Stats, Pickens was given the smallest cushion among all WRs with 50+ targets last season (4.7 yards on average), as defenses tried to challenge him early and not allow him to build up speed as this vertical player.

He can really load up that first step in order to get even with his man in press alignment, by creating torque as he turns his back foot one way and then unloading the other, to shoot past the man with his shoulders slightly turned away from contact. He combines that with effective side-swipes with his hands to not allow DBs to impede or widen his release a whole lot.

At 6’3”, 200 pounds, Pickens can dish out subtle push-offs at the top of the route and use his body to shield the ball. Once the initial route is dead, he displays an innate feel for how to help out his quarterback, as he works around traffic and back down the stem, to present a secure target along the sideline, as the quarterback is moving that way.

Or he realizes when the defense isn’t protecting over the top and he converts vertically, for potential big plays off-script. His strong hands and capability of winning in contested situations are a definite plus in that regard and there’s potential to throw the ball up for him to make a play more regularly going forward.

Maybe no other receiver in the NFL, other than the Vikings’ Justin Jefferson, had more incredible, acrobatic catches than Pickens, where he displayed tremendous body control and hand-eye coordination. You see him box out, establish position and hang in the air to pluck the ball out of it tremendously well.

He seems unbothered for the most part with a defender in his hip pocket and overall hauled in a tremendous 67.9% of his contested catch opportunities (19 of 28). Plus, he crossed that rare bar of securing just over half of targets of 20+ yards (16 of 30), totaling 459 yards and three touchdowns on those, compared to no picks when the quarterback(s) went his way. That resulted in a passer rating of 131.9 when chucking it to him down the field.

This isn’t a dynamic space player necessarily with the ball in his hands, but he features a quick turn across the opposite shoulder and then is really strong to bump through a tackler or extend the ball for the marker with somebody trying to drag him down.

While I believe the highlight-like knockdowns of defenders as a blocker don’t quite tell the full story of Pickens being a dominant force in the run game, he does a great job of walling off DBs, being aware of the ball carrier’s movement and how to help string his teammate loose on plays where he’s near the point of attack.

When he does latch his hands into the frame of guys early, he can certainly take them for a ride. So if a DB just half-heartedly tries to engage with him, they run the risk of getting pan-caked out there.

Looking at the negatives, Pickens did drop four passes and I would have charged him with one more in the Colts game, where he extended his arms early and didn’t really pull the ball into his body before touching the ground. Being a little late with where he grabs the ball on its back end when it’s in an uncontested fashion cost him in that regard, which included letting an easy touchdown slip through his hands in their second Bengals game.

According to Matt Harmon from Reception Perception, Pickens had just a 68.3% win rate vs. zone – which was in the bottom fifth percentile – as somebody who can win on a vertical plane, along with the deep outs and comebacks off those. But he didn’t consistently create separation on the more high-volume routes that you’d associate with that type of X-player profile.

Watching him and Diontae Johnson run the same route with a lot of the mirror concepts they run under offensive coordinator Matt Canada, there is a visible difference in the way they break off routes (in terms of how snappy they are with sticking their foot in the ground and how precise they are with coming out of those).

While his usage as a vertical target didn’t lend itself to major run-after-catch ability, his 2.1 yards on average once the ball was in his hands, is rather underwhelming. He’s not this twitchy mover who will evade tacklers or features any type of creativity in the open field.

How meticulous Pickens becomes at the top of the route, in terms of keeping DBs guessing or actively manipulating what they read, will decide if he can become a true alpha or maybe somebody who will rely too much on his ability to win through contact at the catch-point. I believe he has that “dawg” in him, as people like to say these days, in terms of somebody with that “my ball” mentality, but also wanting to become a better all-around receiver.

You can’t teach the body-control, power and ball skills. He may never be a 100-catch guy, but the big plays he can produce through the air along with the potential of expanding his route tree, could make him a perennial 1,000-yard receiver. Considering from Week 4 on – when Kenny Pickett took over shortly before halftime – Pickens averaged 52.6 yards on just 5.1 targets per contest.

So as those two grow together in their second seasons as part of that system, we should see better chemistry – especially off script – and the rebounding specialist will demand more opportunities to make plays for his quarterback, even when it appears that he’s covered.

I also like the fact they basically swapped out Chase Claypool for Allen Robinson (along with getting a high-value draft pick from the Bears), to add a veteran presence to that WR corp and particularly how he can help Pickens teach reducing his bigger frame to win as a route-runner.