2023 NFL season predictions: Awards, Divisions, Playoffs and Super Bowl

It’s time to put myself out there by predicting every single NFL award, the playoff picture and my pick for Super Bowl LVIII.

I will list my top three candidates for MVP, Defensive Player of the Year and all the other awards, reveal my seven seeds in both conferences and work my way through the eventual matchups. This will get us down to the participants in the big game next February. I added the Excel sheet (where you can find my predictions for all 285 total games) at the bottom of this piece.

This is what I think the 2023 NFL season will look like:

2023 NFL Season Awards: Most Valuable Player

NFL Regular Season: Denver Broncos v Baltimore Ravens

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#1, Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens

It’s somewhat understandable why people would be apprehensive about the Baltimore Ravens and their quarterback. Especially after missing five games each of the past two seasons and the whole contract situation just lingering for a long time. But I believe the public has forgotten how damn good Lamar Jackson is when healthy and Baltimore has now locked him up for the next five years.

It’s been a while since he won NFL MVP in 2019, but even though he may be down a slight notch in terms of dynamism as a runner, he’s shown significant strides as a progression-style passer. Now this offseason, they go from Demarcus Robinson as their top wide receiver at below 500 yards to a highly promising trio of Odell Beckham Jr., Rashod Bateman (returning from injury) and first-round pick Zay Flowers (Boston College).

Along with the natural talent of those guys being able to defeat coverage and make plays for Lamar and a healthier Mark Andrews, we’re about to see a drastic shift in philosophy from the heavy-personnel, run-oriented Greg Roman to Todd Monken (coming over from Georgia following back-to-back National Championships, where he turned former walk-on Stetson Bennett in a Heisman candidate).

What do you think he’ll do with a talent like Lamar, who now has the best skill-position group he’s worked with yet and an O-line that has settled in?

#2, Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars

Because of how horrific the situation was in Jacksonville under the leadership of Urban Meyer in 2021, and because it took Trevor Lawrence some time to settle into the offensive system Doug Pederson brought in, I don’t think casual NFL fans realize that this is an emerging superstar.

From Week 9 onwards, there were only three quarterbacks that ranked ahead of him in EPA per play (+0.183), and they were Jared Goff, Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts.

The Jaguars went 7-and-2 for the rest of the regular season. Then, after tossing four interceptions in the first half against the Chargers, he led one of the greatest comebacks in playoff history and was an onside kick away from a chance to knock out the Chiefs in the Divisional round.

That was with Christian Kirk as his unquestioned number-one receiver. Now insert Calvin Ridley, who was an All-Pro when he last played a full season and has looked dynamite in training camp.

While the Jags will face a first-place schedule this year, all three other AFC South teams could eventually start a rookie QB. They will also get to play the NFC South instead of the East this past season, which didn’t include a team with a losing record. I believe Lawrence takes another step and takes advantage of a manageable schedule, leading his team to the conference’s number one seed.

#3, Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs

We can’t have an MVP discussion without including the king of the NFL right now. Patrick Mahomes has distanced himself from the rest of the pack right now, because he is capable of creating plays out of structure basically nobody else in football can. But he has also learned to play the position on schedule or manipulate the pocket as well as anybody out there.

Last season he won the award for the second time in his career, as led the Chiefs to AFC’s top seed and easily had the top mark among quarterbacks in EPA per play (0.302 vs. 0.242 as the next-closest). In fact, he only finished worse than second once across his five seasons as a starter, and that was at third in 2020.

So betting against him isn’t very smart. The only reason I have him at third rather than winning again is the lack of established pass-catchers outside of Travis Kelce around him, with Kadarius Toney getting hurt the first time he stepped on a football field this offseason. Add that to the fact they may lean more into the run game (which they got a lot more efficient at, particularly in the red zone, where Andy Reid and company don’t want to use him as a runner a whole lot anymore), unlike the two guys ahead of him.

Also considered: Geno Smith & Josh Allen

2023 NFL Season Awards: Offensive Player of the Year (Non-QB)

NFC Championship - San Francisco 49ers v Philadelphia Eagles

#1, Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers

Since I’ve disagreed with the idea of calling somebody the best offensive player of the year but not the MVP, yet at the same time the latter being a pure quarterback award at this point, I will once again ignore that position group for this category.

Due to injuries costing him time and making him less effective when on the field, Christian McCaffrey wasn’t held in the same regard as the other top-tier running backs in the league heading into 2022. Through six games in Carolina, he was relatively quiet for the standard he set in 2019, when he led the NFL with 2,400 scrimmage yards and 19 touchdowns, due to the Panthers literally being dead-last in EPA per play offensively.

However, once he was traded to San Francisco, he returned to superstar all-around player. Across 14 games and 263 touches with Kyle Shanahan, CMC racked up 1,509 yards and 13 touchdowns from scrimmage, plus another passing TD, running as hard as he’s ever done in his career.

He has now had a full offseason to immerse himself in the outside zone scheme and learn the tweaks Shanahan has made to the ground game. Also, as the Niners go away from the classic bootleg, play-action game, what McCaffrey provides as a legit fifth receiver when flexed out will make the dropback game even more effective. We will see the listed RB be a nightmare against linebackers having to trail him and he can provide explosive plays as a vertical target.

#2, Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals

There were three really good choices among wide receivers between former LSU teammates Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson plus Garrett Wilson. However, taking quarterback play, situation and individual talent into account, I gave the nod to Chase.

This guy broke the rookie receiving record just a year after Jefferson re-wrote the record books, with 1,455 yards and 13 touchdowns, averaging 18 yards per grab. Then last season he averaged 1.6 yards more per game (87.2 YPG) on 2.5 more receptions per, as he turned himself into more of a chain-mover in pure passing situations (finished second among WRs with 1.42 third-down conversions per game) rather than the big-play machine he was in year one as one of the driving forces to a Super Bowl appearance

However, in no way does that mean he’s any less dangerous with the ball in his hands, he can still catch a ball over the middle and take off for 80-yard touchdowns. The Bengals have the ancillary weapons to where defenses can’t consistently roll coverages his way.

I believe the combination of establishing himself as the go-to option in crucial situations with the explosiveness to convert crucial plays into chunk gains will set up a monster year.

#3, Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns

Unlike Christian McCaffrey being sort of out-of-sight, out-of-mind, Nick Chubb has been there to see for everybody. However, because he’s so boringly tremendous, people fail to recognize this is one of the all-time great running backs.

This past season, he became the first NFL player to average more than five yards per carry each of his first five years as a pro, while leading the NFL with 47 carries of 10+ yards and a missed tackle forced-per-carry rate of 27.5%.

I’ve said this so many times that regular readers/listeners might be tired of me saying Chubb is the best pure runner in the NFL. But I just never get tired of watching this man process information, manipulate defenders to help out his blockers and incorporate different footwork to set up runs before he maximizes yardage through contact with impeccable balance and body-control.

He could have really been up there in this discussion for several years now, but the reason I believe he’ll get recognized more this season is the fact he could handle his largest workload yet.

Even last season, when he finally cracked the 300-carry mark, he only played 56% of offensive snaps. Now with Kareem Hunt out of the door as an excellent third-down option, we could see Chubb get involved in the pass game more extensively, and while the run-play ratio may decrease as they open up the offense for Deshaun Watson, that should lead to lighter boxes he gets to run against.

Also considered: Justin Jefferson, Saquon Barkley & Garrett Wilson

2023 NFL Season Awards: Defensive Player of the Year

NFL Regular Season: Cleveland Browns v Washington Commanders

#1, Myles Garrett, Cleveland Browns

I believe there are five edge defenders in the game today who have sort of separated themselves from the rest of the pack. These are Myles Garrett, Nick Bosa, Micah Parsons, T.J. Watt and Maxx Crosby.

Depending on the success of the Steelers, you can make a case for all but Crosby from that list to win this award in 2023, more so based on the lack of team and unit success I see for the Raiders.

While Garrett has never led the NFL in the two most prominent statistics typically used to judge players at the position – sacks and tackles for loss – the underlying pressure numbers every year are off the charts and last season he earned the highest pass-rush win rate (25.6%) and overall PFF grade among defensive players (92.5).

That was playing for a Browns defense that finished dead-last in rush EPA (+0.045) and didn’t set up a ton of third-and-longs, with Taven Bryan being the second-most effective pass-rusher. This offseason, Cleveland fortified the interior D-line with a couple of true nose tackles and attacked that edge spot across from Garrett in multiple ways. Ogbonnia Okoronkwo is the high rusher who forces quarterbacks to step up, and Za’Darius Smith is more of a movable piece along the front seven to create issues.

As Garrett has become a more well-rounded technician and has improved his flexibility, he’s a terror from any alignment, but especially if you give him a one-on-one with a guard.

#2, Roquan Smith, Baltimore Ravens

This award is generally given to players with major counting numbers, such as sacks for pass-rushers and interceptions for defensive backs, while guys on the second level rarely are recognized accordingly. In fact, since 2005, Luke Kuechly a decade ago by now was the last true off-ball linebacker to be named DPOY.

However, as analytics become more prevalent and the voters have access to more nuanced information, I hope we can acknowledge when those guys are having great years.

Individually, Roquan Smith, this past season was tied for a league-high three interceptions and 42 defensive stops among LBs. More importantly, once Baltimore traded for him mid-way through the season, their defense went from 28th in EPA per play allowed through the first eight weeks (0.076) all the way to fifth NFL-wide (-0.078) from that point onwards.

He’s become so sound with making reads between the tackles and bringing people to the ground, that it unlocked his young running mate Patrick Queen, who’s at best attacking forward in all phases.

Yet, it’s Roquan’s role in coverage that really stands out, because they could confidently run more split-safety coverages, where the MIKE is ultimately isolated with an inside receiver or has to sink under deeper-developing routes. This is the key piece to what DC Mike Macdonald evolved his defense into over the course of 2022.

So if they can keep up the level we saw them post-trade for Smith, we highlight him for how he makes that unit work and he fills the stat sheet a little bit, he’s still the biggest name on a defense that brings back pretty much all the pieces from last season.

#3, Jaelan Phillips, Miami Dolphins

Like I said when I listed Jaelan Phillips as one of my top 100 NFL players for the 2023 season, this is an emerging superstar, which casual fans haven’t really taken notice of.

His 15.5 sacks through two years aren’t crazy, but this past season he already earned an elite PFF pass-rush grade (90.1), was tied for the seventh-most total pressures (77) and tied for fourth in ESPN’s pass-rush win rate metric (24%). From December onwards, he was as disruptive as any edge defender I mentioned as part of the elite tier at the top.

This season he will be a part of a vastly different system under defensive coordinator Vic Fangio compared to Josh Boyer. While the latter did create plenty of one-on-one rush opportunities with their pressure packages, because of how predictable they were with bringing it in designated passing situations, quarterbacks had answers for it and were able to get the ball early.

Now under Vic, the focus will be more on changing up the picture post-snap and forcing passers to hold onto the ball for an extra beat, for their D-line to get home. That combined with Phillips entering his prime individually and a fast-paced offense that will force opponents to keep up and present more true dropbacks should lend itself to the young Miami standout registering actual QB takedowns.

Also considered: Micah Parsons, Nick Bosa & Jaycee Horn

2023 NFL Season Awards: Offensive Rookie of the Year

#1, Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons

There is an overwhelming favorite here and I immediately locked in my bet on Bijan Robinson to win this award when it was released at five-to-one. The Falcons were top-five in rush EPA and rushing success rate in 2022 already, despite probably having bottom-five quarterback play to complement that.

I already predicted a breakout season for Desmond Ridder heading into year two, based on how well-constructed the unit is around him. They have an uber-versatile and talented group of skill-position players, which includes three straight top-ten picks.

Bijan is the most recent among of those and he’s not only the best at his position entering the league but also by far the least dependent on quarterback play. Only the Bears, Ravens and Eagles had more than Atlanta’s 1,701 rushing yards before contact last season, and they had three of the four most effective running QBs in the NFL.

Pair that with Bijan just having set the single-season record for most missed tackles forced in FBS history (104) and you have the potential for a nuclear explosion in the ATL. And that’s before we even really talk about his ability to flex out wide and run an extensive route tree with natural hands and open-field skills.

#2, Jordan Addison, Minnesota Vikings

Unlike Bijan, who I’ve openly said I’d be willing to draft third overall in fantasy formats this year, I did mention Jordan Addison as one of my fantasy diamonds.

While the situation isn’t as perfect (and that’s why you’re getting him way later down the board), I believe in terms of what the Vikings will ask of the former Biletnikoff winner and where he excels as a pro-ready receiver matches up extremely well.

This past season, only the Bucs and Chargers threw the ball on a higher percentage of plays (64.4%) than Minnesota in year one under head coach Kevin O’Connell. That along with arguably the best season of Kirk Cousins’ career facilitated Justin Jefferson winning Offensive Player of the Year, when he led the NFL in receptions (128) and yards (1809), and number two Adam Thielen finished behind only his teammate in routes run (621).

However, the Vikings really struggled to find a reliable second option through the air, as only tight-end T.J. Hockenson averaged more than 1.5 yards per route run for them last season, who they acquired mid-way through the year. So as opponents regularly bracketed JJ, the Vikes really needed another WR to win those isolated matchups presented to him.

That’s why they drafted Addison in the first round, who averaged 3.28 and 3.41 yards per route run vs. man-coverage these last two years at USC and Pitt respectively while scoring 13 combined touchdowns. His ability to manipulate defenders and set up routes is at a pro level already.

#3, Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts

Of course, we have to mention one of the three quarterbacks selected in the top four this past April and I’ll go with the last among those because Anthony Richardson has the potential to really blow up this season.

Bryce Young certainly has a chance if he can take the most talented rosters among those to a division title in a weak NFC South, and C.J. Stroud could help elevate the Texans back to respectable franchise status. However, I could not resist drafting AR in fantasy, placing multiple bets on him and now listing him as one of the favorites for this award.

The arm talent and insane athleticism are apparent to everybody after he literally set records at the combine despite being 245 pounds. However, I just believe he was unfairly labeled as a raw project.

He’s just a one-year starter, who could have problems handling more complex looks thrown at him in designated passing situations. Yet, in terms of pocket navigation, manipulating key defenders with his eyes and quickly learning from mistakes, he’s much more advanced than he’s given credit for. His elite pressure-to-sack conversion rate of just 9.2% indicates he’s very capable of handling adverse situations.

With Shane Steichen coming over from Philadelphia, I believe we see him simplify the game a lot on early downs and use the rookie’s tremendous ability as a runner in a way that won’t only allow him to learn the dropback game at an appropriate pace, but also lead to major production right away as a dual-threat.

Also considered: Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud & Jaxon Smith-Njigba

2023 NFL Season Awards: Defensive Rookie of the Year

#1, Will Anderson Jr., Houston Texans

While it’s certainly not as obvious to me as the choice for Offensive Rookie of the Year, I believe on the defensive side of the ball there’s one name that stands above the rest as well.

Jalen Carter was my number one overall prospect in the draft, but because of how deep the Eagles D-line will be, I’m not sure he gets the snap share to put up the numbers necessary to win the award.

There are no concerns like that with the non-quarterback who was atop the big board for most people out there. When the Texans traded up to the third overall pick this past April, to pair up Ohio State QB C.J. Stroud with Alabama edge defender Will Anderson Jr., they secured themselves cornerstone pieces for this new regime under the return of DeMeco Ryans.

Nobody in the country racked up more sacks (27.5), pressures (145) or tackles for loss (48.0) than the back-to-back unanimous All-American for the Crimson Tide over the past two seasons. He will be an elite run-defender from the day he steps onto an NFL field, thanks to his ability to play low and with extension near the point of attack.

There’s room to diversify as a pass-rusher, but the speed-to-power profile he offers should give him a pretty solid floor right away. There’s nothing in his way for playing time, yet there are enough pieces around him to avoid much extra attention and he gets to learn from veteran Jerry Hughes.

With DeMeco Ryans and Matt Burke coming over from San Francisco’s number-one-rated defense, they’ll be looking to turn around a unit with plenty of young talent on it, and Anderson will be one of the main pieces to get credit.

#2, Drew Sanders, Denver Broncos

My second candidate here is much further off-the-board, as somebody I sprinkled some money on at 25-to-one sometime before the summer. Drew Sanders was a five-star recruit on the edge for Alabama, who didn’t get to play a whole lot during his two years with the Crimson Tide before transferring to Oklahoma and transitioning to mainly an off-ball linebacker role.

With that being said, he will still regularly be deployed as a pressure player on early downs, whether it is as a stand-up blitzer or moving back to the edge. Despite rushing the passer on just 147 snaps (still a lot for his de-facto position), he amassed 39 pressures and double-digit sacks.

The snap anticipation, effective hand-swipes, power to crash through one shoulder of blockers and closing burst should all translate very well, in particular considering how Vance Joseph will probably deploy him, as one of the most aggressive DCs across the NFL.

In terms of block deconstruction and especially tackling in space, he’s clearly still learning, but I’d think Denver will find ways to mask weaknesses and take advantage of what he can provide on passing downs already, which also includes a highly impressive range in coverage at nearly 240 pounds.

I could see him get a couple of “cheap” interceptions bailing out of overloaded pressure looks and racking up quite a few TFLs when blitzed on run downs.

#3, Devon Witherspoon, Seattle Seahawks

I had a really tough time settling on a name here, because as you look at the three that I mention below, it includes my number one overall prospect and two guys in pretty refined roles they could excel at on already top-six defenses last year looking at EPA and DVOA metrics. However, I ultimately settled on my top cornerback and one of my favorite watches throughout draft season.

For anybody who has never watched Devon Witherspoon, this is a six-foot, 180-pound corner who thinks he’s a 250-pound linebacker, with the ferocity he comes downhill with. That’ll be key in Seattle's cover-four/-six heavy defense, where they rely on their guys on the outside to support the run.

However, he has tremendous coverage skills, being able to click-and-close as well as anybody I’ve studied at the position when playing off, the physicality to dictate route stems in press, yet also the make-up speed and feistiness at the catch-point to still “win the rep” if he’s caught slightly out of phase momentarily.

Last season at Illinois he allowed just 22 catches for 200 yards and no touchdowns across 425 coverage snaps and 63 targets, with 18 pass break-ups and three interceptions to his name.

With Defensive Rookie of the Year finalist Tariq Woolen on the opposite end of the field, Witherspoon should see plenty of opportunities to rack up PBUs and picks, along with delivering some splash hits when given a chance to race up on a crosser in front of him or peel off his initial assignment in zone.

Also considered: Jalen Carter, Christian Gonzalez & Will McDonald IV

2023 NFL Season Awards: Comeback Player of the Year

#1, Damar Hamlin, Buffalo Bills

There isn’t much to talk about here. Damar Hamlin is the overwhelming favorite for good reason, as he’s back with the team. Even though he’s most likely not starting outside of an injury to Buffalo’s outstanding safety tandem, if he just plays one snap in the regular season, we knew pretty much since January that he would win this award.

In my time of following the NFL, I’ve never seen a situation shatter the community and lead to as much uncertainty about how things would continue as when Hamlin laid on the field for about half an hour in their Week 17 Monday Night game against the Bengals, as PCR needed to administered due to the second-year safety suffering cardiac arrest.

Up to that point, he had established himself as a valuable contributor in the absence of Pro Bowler Micah Hyde, and should once again see playing time as a backup and special teamer.

#2, Cooper Kupp, LA Rams

I think if there’s one player who could somehow sway voters in case Hamlin barely plays this season and his story moves somewhat to the background, it would be Cooper Kupp. Kupp won the receiving triple-crown in 2021 and capped off the season with a Super Bowl MVP trophy.

With how poor the Rams offense was as a whole last season due to a multitude of injuries, people seem to forget that Cooper Kupp was literally on pace for an NFL-record 163 catches if you take out his final game, where he was injured early in the second half.

L.A. finished fourth in dropback EPA when they had a cohesive offensive line and a (mostly) healthy Stafford along with their star receiver in ’21. With no secondary target cutting in his target share, yet Sean McVay returning to orchestrate a capable offense, expect Kupp to be peppered heavily yet again.

#3, Chase Young, Washington Commanders

The third name here is neither as glaring in terms of overcoming adversity to return to the NFL field or as much of an established player, but this is a huge year for Chase Young.

After winning Defensive Rookie of the Year in 2019, the former number two overall pick has combined for just 12 games and 1.5 sacks since. The talent is still there to turn himself into a top-tier edge defender, in terms of explosiveness, power and hand usage, and he has three fellow first-round picks alongside the D-line with him, but he has a long way to go in order to come even close to that stratosphere.

With two top-50 picks added to the secondary in Washington, the pass rush should be afforded more time to get home, while the linemen around him should create plenty of one-on-one opportunities to win. Now he needs to do it.

Also considered: Sam Darnold, Kyle Pitts & John Metchie III

2023 NFL Season Awards: Coach of the Year

AFC Wild Card Playoffs - Los Angeles Chargers v Jacksonville Jaguars

#1, Doug Pederson, Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars ending up with the AFC’s number one seed should end up getting Doug Pederson the recognition he deserves. This is a continuation of taking a team in shambles and just having picked first overall in back-to-back years to an AFC South title and their only playoff win (outside of that miraculous run to the conference championship in 2017) over the last 15 years.

He’s got an MVP candidate at quarterback, who played as well as anybody not named Patrick Mahomes over the second half of last season. There's now a pretty deep collection of skill-position players around him and a defense that quietly was a top-five unit in EPA per play from Week 11 onwards.

A combination of continued growth and a favorable schedule opens the path for Pederson to take a franchise from the dead-end of the AFC all the way to the top. Pederson is the first line to get credit, following the disaster that was the Urban Meyer “era,” especially since the head coach will remain calling offensive plays.

#2, Arthur Smith, Atlanta Falcons

Next up, I’m going with my guy. I’m fully invested in the 2023 Falcons in multiple ways and once again, I’ll explain below why I project to win ten games and the NFC South in the process.

Either way, I believe there’s a misconception about what Arthur Smith has done during his first two years in Atlanta. Going 7-10 in each of those isn’t overly impressive, but considering they were projected to win seven games in 2021 (when Calvin Ridley removed himself from the team five games into the season and we saw where Matt Ryan stood isolated from that situation and put in the Indianapolis last year), and then exceeding their five-win projection in 2022 (with the combination of Marcus Mariota and third-round rookie Desmond Ridder under center), they’ve held their heads above water.

What we have to consider here is that coaches get judged based on their side of the ball, which is where the offense finished above average last year already, while the defense was 30th in DVOA each of the past two seasons. I believe they could easily be a top-ten unit by advanced metrics, if their second-year QB can just be a capable distributor, and nerds like me will highlight them throughout.

#3, Pete Carroll, Seattle Seahawks

If we’re honest, Pete Carroll should have already finished higher than ninth in Coach of the Year last season, when his Seahawks snuck into the playoffs with a 9-8 record despite being labeled a team in transition.

The main reason he didn’t receive more credit (or at least not in a way that would earn him additional votes) was how catastrophic his former quarterback Russell Wilson and the Broncos as a whole were. I would argue exactly that should be recognized, after many smart football minds were clamoring for Seattle to “let Russ cook” for years, even though they were one of the most consistent teams across the NFL.

Well, while Russ burned down the kitchen while Geno Smith was serving up delicious deep balls. Now with first-rounder Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Ohio State) as a perfect complement in the slot, I expect this offense to open up and create more favorable looks on the ground for them.

Meanwhile, what will shift the spotlight a little bit more toward the captain of the ship, is the defense under Carroll and Clint Hurtt. This has plenty of room to go upwards, after finishing outside the top 20 in all meaningful metrics last season. Bobby Wagner is back to steer the ship and having that high-flying attack should create opportunities to make plays for that unit more regularly.

Also considered: John Harbaugh & Dan Campbell

2023 NFL season playoffs: NFC

Philadelphia Eagles (12-5)
Seattle Seahawks (12-5)
Detroit Lions (10-7)
Atlanta Falcons (10-7)
San Francisco 49ers (11-6)
Dallas Cowboys (10-7)
New Orleans Saints (9-8)

#1, Philadelphia Eagles, 12-5

At this point last year, after going through the 18-week schedule, I ended up with the Eagles as my number-one seed in the NFC. As much as I loved their roster and hammered them to win the NFC East, that felt a little too aggressive for me and I actively changed the outcome of one game, in order to push them down a couple of spots.

I’m not making that mistake again this time around. I believe only the 49ers have a roster quite at that level among the conference and while context is needed about how the team runs the offense through their playmakers (including Jalen Hurts himself) they do have the runner-up for MVP at quarterback.

The crazy part is that they arguably had the best offseason of any team in the NFL, after losing by a field goal in the Super Bowl. I do have Philly’s win total go down by a couple of games, because they play arguably the top two divisions in the league, with the NFC and AFC East.

#2, Seattle Seahawks, 12-5

The Seahawks at number two might be a surprise to some, especially after I just mentioned that the 49ers probably field the only roster on a comparable level with the Eagles, but I believe they are one of the most underrated teams in the NFL right now.

People are sort of label Geno Smith’s 2022 season as a one-year wonder, even though a lot of the things he did were very sound from how to play the position, along with some of the jaw-dropping throws down the field.

Their two first-round picks are perfect complements to what they had already, with Devon Witherspoon (Illinois)’s click-and-close ability on the opposite side of a Defensive Rookie of the Year finalist at corner and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Ohio State) as a chain-mover in the slot, to give arguably the NFL’s premiere WR trio.

The road isn’t going to be much easier than Philadelphia, having the NFC East and AFC North on the slate, along with a couple of games against San Francisco. However, they could be facing a couple of rookie quarterbacks as their unique games inside the division, and they might be favored in 10 of their first 11 weeks.

#3, Detroit Lions, 10-7

Is the Lions hype train a little bit out of control at this point? Maybe. However, they are clearly headed in the right direction, while I have questions throughout the rest of the NFC North. The Vikings are due for some major regression from a perfect 10-0 record in one-score games, the Packers are transitioning from a Hall of Fame quarterback and the Bears face a massive uphill climb after “earning” the first overall pick in the draft this past April.

Detroit brings back offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, after being a big name in the head-coaching cycle. The defense showed definite improvements over the second half of last season and while we can argue the long-term implications of using a couple of top-20 picks on a running back and off-ball linebacker, they should provide big-play potential and stability at those positions (which needed the biggest upgrades).

What definitely helps them is a bye week perfectly in the middle of their schedule (Week 9) and the best advantage in terms of rest days against their opponents in the conference, according to Warren Sharp.

#4, Atlanta Falcons, 10-7

Call me crazy, but at this point, I’m all in on the Falcons, whether that’s betting, fantasy football or now calling them to win the NFC South.

No other team spent more money in free agency on their defense. They have turned a lackluster D-line into a room filled with proven veterans and a rangy safety in Jessie Bates capable and with Ryan Nielsen coming over from New Orleans.

How a couple of their young players on that side of the ball come along and of course most importantly, how well second-year quarterback Desmond Ridder can execute this well-balanced attack will be crucial to how high the Falcons can rise.

#5, San Francisco 49ers, 11-6

It feels wrong to have the 49ers down at number five, but as an 11-win team I still very much believe in the operation there. I just see a couple of factors that could hold them back a little bit, while having some real competition inside the division with the Seahawks.

First and foremost, they are facing the challenge of replacing both their offensive and defensive coordinators yet again. They likely have four starters with PFF grades below 65 along the O-line with Trent Williams and then of course, we don’t know exactly what to expect from this quarterback situation.

By all reports, Brock Purdy seems to be on schedule and slated to start Week 1, but his efficiency numbers were definitely inflated a little bit in limited action last season, with two other former third overall draft picks challenging him and all of those guys having a certain injury history. I’d think they’ll be in a groove by the time December/January rolls around, but it could take a little time to kick into gear.

#6, Dallas Cowboys, 10-7

While not quite as drastic, the Cowboys definitely have the quality to be higher up in terms of seeding, but they just have the NFC’s top team inside their division with them.

They addressed their two biggest question marks this offseason. They traded for Brandin Cooks as a super-reliable number two receiver and first-round pick Mazi Smith (Michigan) giving them a legit shade nose-tackle, to complement their otherwise uber-aggressive defensive line. This should firm up the interior and keep the second level clean in the run game.

With defensive coordinator Dan Quinn declining some head-coaching opportunities, there’s no reason to believe they can’t make it into the top three in DVOA and EPA per play on that side of the ball for the third straight year.

Quarterback Dak Prescott should be due for some positive regression in terms of turnover luck, but the combination of Mike McCarthy and Brian Schottenheimer taking over the offense gives me pause about their ability to create schematic advantage on a weekly basis.

#7, New Orleans Saints, 9-8

It was a tight battle for the final Wild Card berth, as a direct win over the Giants secured that tie-breaker for the Saints, as both finish at 9-8 for me, with a couple of NFC North teams beating them head-up but have one fewer W in the left column.

Injuries and highly inconsistent quarterback play have held New Orleans back these last two years, but they’ve still been a competitive 16-18 squad over that stretch.

While he has his flaws and we can question how high the ceiling is, Derek Carr is a massive upgrade over the collection of passers they’ve thrown out there since Drew Brees retired. Then there's the enigma that is Michael Thomas, who now just needs to be a solid number two after the standout rookie year we saw from Chris Olave.

Even with Alvin Kamara suspended for the first three weeks, with the other backs they’ve brought in, they’ll focus on the power run game and play-action shots off it. With four straight years of being a top-ten defense in EPA per play under DC/HC Dennis Allen, even as they age a little bit further, that’s a unit they should be able to rely upon more so than the other Wildcard contenders.

Just missed the cut: New York Giants (9-8), Green Bay Packers (8-9) & Minnesota Vikings (8-9)

2023 NFL season playoffs: AFC

Jacksonville Jaguars (12-5)
Kansas City Chiefs (12-5)
Baltimore Ravens (11-6)
Buffalo Bills (10-7)
Cincinnati Bengals (10-7)
Miami Dolphins (10-7)
New York Jets (10-7)

#1, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-5

Let’s shock a lot of people here right off the bat. While I don’t believe they’re as dominant in the trenches on either side of the line, there aren’t many holes you can poke in this roster. I also believe in their quarterback more so in pure passing situations.

From Week 10 onwards, Trevor Lawrence was responsible for 17 touchdowns compared to only two interceptions, while the Jags went 7-2, including their defense stepping up in a major win to secure them the AFC South crown.

With another number one pick on the D-line in Travon Walker heading into year two and a true number receiver in Calvin Ridley now joining the squad, their ceiling is rising.

I’m not going to lie, 12 wins may be a little more of a function of the schedule than quite how good the team is. If the Titans make the switch prior to Week 11, they should have six games against rookie quarterbacks and face the NFC South, which included four teams below .500 last season.

#2, Kansas City Chiefs, 12-5

I do have the Chiefs winning 12 games and continuing their reign over the AFC West. The questions heading into 2023 are quite similar to a year ago, with even less proven commodities at wide receiver and arguably also edge rusher. That’s along with losing offensive coordinator Eric Bienemy and an underrated play-making safety in Juan Thornhill.

With that being said, we’ve seen Mahomes elevate a lackluster receiving corp, as long as he has Travis Kelce and the protection to hold up during the tenure of the scheduled play, before Pat makes magic happen in the second phase.

If the young guys in the secondary take a step, we could see DC Steve Spagnuolo’s unit take pressure off the other side of the ball more consistently this year. Going through their schedule, facing the full AFC East and a rematch with the Eagles as their “unique” NFC game got me to five losses, including Week 2 at Jacksonville, which broke the tie between those two sides.

#3, Baltimore Ravens, 11-6

When I think of a sleeping giant inside the AFC, the Ravens are my pick to really make some noise this season. I started this article by outlining why I believe Lamar Jackson will win NFL MVP, as they open up the offense under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken and the trio of wide receivers they’ve assembled.

Then Roquan Smith is a Defensive Player of the Year candidate, looking at the turnaround they saw on that unit once he arrived in the Charm City. They now provide much more firepower offensively and more willingness to bring different ideas to the table on defense under coordinator Mike Macdonald heading into year two.

Baltimore won 10 games last season despite not having Lamar for basically the final six weeks and several other injuries. Now all they need is decide one more contest in their favor, which I think is a conservative projection if just one of their young edge defenders can take a jump in applying more consistent pressure.

#4, Buffalo Bills, 10-7

As you can see, I project there to be a highly competitive battle for the AFC East, with three 10-7 teams ultimately making the dance. The reason I was fine with the Bills ultimately having the edge (other than having won the division and at least made it to the second round of the playoffs each of the past three years) is the fact they have the biggest edge in net rest days (+12) across the NFL, according to Warren Sharp.

I’m curious about how exactly they deploy first-round tight-end Dalton Kincaid (Utah) and what elements offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey in his second season calling plays will incorporate in order to take pressure off Josh Allen to not always have to be Superman.

On defense, I did not have Von Miller to be as crucial to their success during the regular season already, but getting him back after seeing how they dropped off following his injury will be huge. They do, however, need young guys at all three levels to step up if they want to compete atop the AFC.

#5, Cincinnati Bengals, 10-7

Similar to the East, I believe the AFC North is the division sending multiple teams to the postseason and they similarly have four teams winning double-digit games.

The Bengals are the most well-established of the bunch, having gone to conference title games in each of the last two years and being the squad that gives the Chiefs the most trouble. So, if just make it into the tournament, they can beat anybody, but I have them settling for 10 wins (the same amount as in 2021, when they ended up going to the Super Bowl).

The Ravens getting to play the Titans, Dolphins and Chargers is certainly an easier road than vs. the Bills, at the Chiefs and Jaguars. While I believe their new safety duo has a lot of potential, that unit kind of ran through a couple of veterans they’re now replacing and there could be a bit of an adjustment period.

The calf injury to Joe Burrow is worrisome, in terms of how long it might bother him, even if he doesn’t miss time. A 2-4 division record, with two straight rivalry games to start the year, doesn't help.

#6, Miami Dolphins, 10-7

I originally intended on having the Dolphins win the AFC East going into this exercise and just predicting every single game, that could have easily been the case, not paying attention to the tie-breakers.

If they had Jalen Ramsey from the start, I might’ve given them one extra win to elevate them, but they’re another one of those teams that if they play their best game collectively, there’s nobody they can’t take down in their way.

With Vic Fangio taking over play-calling on the defensive side, a pretty drastic shift is expected in terms of philosophy. But I believe they’ll be more sound on the back end with less pressure on the individual pieces and with the ways Vic can change up the picture for quarterbacks, give that defensive line more time to get home (which is why I mentioned Jaelan Phillips as a contender for DPOY).

Now it’ll be up to how Mike McDaniel continues to evolve his offensive system, as we saw defensive coordinators find solutions for the few plays that terrorized the NFL. Much depends on whether Tua can stay upright, behind an O-line that still needs to be masked to some degree in order to not expose the individual pieces in designated dropback situations.

#7, New York Jets, 10-7

Finally, I ended up with the Jets also sneaking in over three 9-8 teams. A Week 17 win over the Browns is what sealed it for them, since I had them losing to the Chargers head-to-head, while they shared the same record within the AFC.

The hype around Gang Green is pretty insane right now and if don’t win a Super Bowl in the two years most likely they’ll have Aaron Rodgers, that would be disappointing for many New Yorkers.

How exactly that offensive line comes together and how consistent the pass-catching options outside of Garrett Wilson can be certainly deserves to be questioned, but a super-motivated Rodgers can elevate this unit. This will only be more pronounced if Breece Hall is close to 100%, and they can return to the strong rushing attack we saw until the star rookie got hurt.

Theoretically, if that unit can at least be slightly above average, the defense playing as well as they did in 2022 should make them a serious playoff contender, since they just finished top-six in yards, points, DVOA and EPA per play. I’d love to see them in some more high-scoring matches, because then we’d get to see a super-deep and ferocious pass-rush get to shine.

Just missed the cut: Los Angeles Chargers (9-8), Cleveland Browns (9-8), Pittsburgh Steelers (9-8) & New England Patriots (8-9)

2023 NFL season playoffs: Wild Card round

NFC

2. Seattle Seahawks (12-5) OVER 7. New Orleans Saints (9-8)
6. Dallas Cowboys (10-7) OVER 3. Detroit Lions (10-7)
5. San Francisco 49ers (11-6) OVER 4. Atlanta Falcons (10-7)

AFC

2. Kansas City Chiefs (12-5) OVER 7. New York Jets (10-7)
6. Miami Dolphins (10-7) OVER 3. Baltimore Ravens (11-6)
5. Cincinnati Bengals (10-7) OVER 4. Buffalo Bills (10-7)

2023 NFL season playoffs: Divisional round

NFC

6. Dallas Cowboys (10-7) OVER 1. Philadelphia Eagles (12-5)
2. Seattle Seahawks (12-5) OVER 5. San Francisco 49ers (11-6)

AFC

1. Jacksonville Jaguars (12-5) OVER 6. Miami Dolphins (10-7)
5. Cincinnati Bengals (10-7) OVER 2. Kansas City Chiefs (12-5)

2023 NFL season playoffs: Conference Championships

5. Cincinnati Bengals (10-7) OVER 1. Jacksonville Jaguars (12-5)
2 Seattle Seahawks (12-5) OVER 6. Dallas Cowboys (10-7)

That brings up to NFL Super Bowl LVIII ...

2023 NFL season Super Bowl: Bengals vs. Seahawks

Las Vegas Raiders Announce Allegiant Stadium To Host NFL Super Bowl LVIII

Once the NFL playoffs roll around, things often get kind of crazy and it’s all about matchups. In this prediction, both number-one seeds get knocked off in the Divisional round, and similarly to the Tampa Bay Bucs in 2020/21, we have the top Wild Card team going on a run (only this time they come from the AFC).

The Bengals have defeated the Bills and Chiefs in the playoff these past two years respectively, and this year they do it in consecutive weeks on the road. They then travel to Jacksonville to upset the number one seed in an epic matchup between Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence (who will also meet in the regular season this year for the first time since they met in the 2019/20 national championship game).

I believe Cincy will have a bit of a slower start due to Burrow’s calf injury and the defenders now running through a new and very talented safety tandem. However, by the time we get to January, those things will have ironed themselves out.

We’ve seen this offense evolve this past season into an efficient machine, and defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo is one of the elite game planners once we get to the elimination phase, holding other elite QBs in check.

Meanwhile, the Seahawks certainly haven’t delivered in the big stages in this iteration of the proceedings. After they traded Russell Wilson to Denver, I projected them to be picking in the top 10 of the upcoming draft last year. However, nobody could see their draft class produce five legit plus starters, and that Geno Smith would turn himself into a top-ten quarterback in the NFL by any metric.

With two more first-round picks who I believe will be quality contributors in key spots, their offense setting the table for a more consistent run game (by spreading defenses in order to create softer and a ton of competition between young edge rushers), I believe they can make a run through the NFC.

I believe there’s a legit definite step down looking at whoever earns the seven-seed (Saints in my case) and with the Eagles knocked off in the Divisional round, overcome the division-rival 49ers and Cowboys up in Seattle.

If you forced me to make my pick, it would be 26:23 Bengals.

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