2023 NFL season predictions: Awards, Divisions, Playoffs and Super Bowl

2023 NFL season playoffs: NFC

1. Philadelphia Eagles (12-5)
2. Seattle Seahawks (12-5)
3. Detroit Lions (10-7)
4. Atlanta Falcons (10-7)
5. San Francisco 49ers (11-6)
6. Dallas Cowboys (10-7)
7. New Orleans Saints (9-8)

#1, Philadelphia Eagles, 12-5

At this point last year, after going through the 18-week schedule, I ended up with the Eagles as my number-one seed in the NFC. As much as I loved their roster and hammered them to win the NFC East, that felt a little too aggressive for me and I actively changed the outcome of one game, in order to push them down a couple of spots.

I’m not making that mistake again this time around. I believe only the 49ers have a roster quite at that level among the conference and while context is needed about how the team runs the offense through their playmakers (including Jalen Hurts himself) they do have the runner-up for MVP at quarterback.

The crazy part is that they arguably had the best offseason of any team in the NFL, after losing by a field goal in the Super Bowl. I do have Philly’s win total go down by a couple of games, because they play arguably the top two divisions in the league, with the NFC and AFC East.

#2, Seattle Seahawks, 12-5

The Seahawks at number two might be a surprise to some, especially after I just mentioned that the 49ers probably field the only roster on a comparable level with the Eagles, but I believe they are one of the most underrated teams in the NFL right now.

People are sort of label Geno Smith’s 2022 season as a one-year wonder, even though a lot of the things he did were very sound from how to play the position, along with some of the jaw-dropping throws down the field.

Their two first-round picks are perfect complements to what they had already, with Devon Witherspoon (Illinois)’s click-and-close ability on the opposite side of a Defensive Rookie of the Year finalist at corner and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Ohio State) as a chain-mover in the slot, to give arguably the NFL’s premiere WR trio.

The road isn’t going to be much easier than Philadelphia, having the NFC East and AFC North on the slate, along with a couple of games against San Francisco. However, they could be facing a couple of rookie quarterbacks as their unique games inside the division, and they might be favored in 10 of their first 11 weeks.

#3, Detroit Lions, 10-7

Is the Lions hype train a little bit out of control at this point? Maybe. However, they are clearly headed in the right direction, while I have questions throughout the rest of the NFC North. The Vikings are due for some major regression from a perfect 10-0 record in one-score games, the Packers are transitioning from a Hall of Fame quarterback and the Bears face a massive uphill climb after “earning” the first overall pick in the draft this past April.

Detroit brings back offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, after being a big name in the head-coaching cycle. The defense showed definite improvements over the second half of last season and while we can argue the long-term implications of using a couple of top-20 picks on a running back and off-ball linebacker, they should provide big-play potential and stability at those positions (which needed the biggest upgrades).

What definitely helps them is a bye week perfectly in the middle of their schedule (Week 9) and the best advantage in terms of rest days against their opponents in the conference, according to Warren Sharp.

#4, Atlanta Falcons, 10-7

Call me crazy, but at this point, I’m all in on the Falcons, whether that’s betting, fantasy football or now calling them to win the NFC South.

No other team spent more money in free agency on their defense. They have turned a lackluster D-line into a room filled with proven veterans and a rangy safety in Jessie Bates capable and with Ryan Nielsen coming over from New Orleans.

How a couple of their young players on that side of the ball come along and of course most importantly, how well second-year quarterback Desmond Ridder can execute this well-balanced attack will be crucial to how high the Falcons can rise.

#5, San Francisco 49ers, 11-6

It feels wrong to have the 49ers down at number five, but as an 11-win team I still very much believe in the operation there. I just see a couple of factors that could hold them back a little bit, while having some real competition inside the division with the Seahawks.

First and foremost, they are facing the challenge of replacing both their offensive and defensive coordinators yet again. They likely have four starters with PFF grades below 65 along the O-line with Trent Williams and then of course, we don’t know exactly what to expect from this quarterback situation.

By all reports, Brock Purdy seems to be on schedule and slated to start Week 1, but his efficiency numbers were definitely inflated a little bit in limited action last season, with two other former third overall draft picks challenging him and all of those guys having a certain injury history. I’d think they’ll be in a groove by the time December/January rolls around, but it could take a little time to kick into gear.

#6, Dallas Cowboys, 10-7

While not quite as drastic, the Cowboys definitely have the quality to be higher up in terms of seeding, but they just have the NFC’s top team inside their division with them.

They addressed their two biggest question marks this offseason. They traded for Brandin Cooks as a super-reliable number two receiver and first-round pick Mazi Smith (Michigan) giving them a legit shade nose-tackle, to complement their otherwise uber-aggressive defensive line. This should firm up the interior and keep the second level clean in the run game.

With defensive coordinator Dan Quinn declining some head-coaching opportunities, there’s no reason to believe they can’t make it into the top three in DVOA and EPA per play on that side of the ball for the third straight year.

Quarterback Dak Prescott should be due for some positive regression in terms of turnover luck, but the combination of Mike McCarthy and Brian Schottenheimer taking over the offense gives me pause about their ability to create schematic advantage on a weekly basis.

#7, New Orleans Saints, 9-8

It was a tight battle for the final Wild Card berth, as a direct win over the Giants secured that tie-breaker for the Saints, as both finish at 9-8 for me, with a couple of NFC North teams beating them head-up but have one fewer W in the left column.

Injuries and highly inconsistent quarterback play have held New Orleans back these last two years, but they’ve still been a competitive 16-18 squad over that stretch.

While he has his flaws and we can question how high the ceiling is, Derek Carr is a massive upgrade over the collection of passers they’ve thrown out there since Drew Brees retired. Then there's the enigma that is Michael Thomas, who now just needs to be a solid number two after the standout rookie year we saw from Chris Olave.

Even with Alvin Kamara suspended for the first three weeks, with the other backs they’ve brought in, they’ll focus on the power run game and play-action shots off it. With four straight years of being a top-ten defense in EPA per play under DC/HC Dennis Allen, even as they age a little bit further, that’s a unit they should be able to rely upon more so than the other Wildcard contenders.

Just missed the cut: New York Giants (9-8), Green Bay Packers (8-9) & Minnesota Vikings (8-9)

2023 NFL season playoffs: AFC

1. Jacksonville Jaguars (12-5)
2. Kansas City Chiefs (12-5)
3. Baltimore Ravens (11-6)
4. Buffalo Bills (10-7)
5. Cincinnati Bengals (10-7)
6. Miami Dolphins (10-7)
7. New York Jets (10-7)

#1, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-5

Let’s shock a lot of people here right off the bat. While I don’t believe they’re as dominant in the trenches on either side of the line, there aren’t many holes you can poke in this roster. I also believe in their quarterback more so in pure passing situations.

From Week 10 onwards, Trevor Lawrence was responsible for 17 touchdowns compared to only two interceptions, while the Jags went 7-2, including their defense stepping up in a major win to secure them the AFC South crown.

With another number one pick on the D-line in Travon Walker heading into year two and a true number receiver in Calvin Ridley now joining the squad, their ceiling is rising.

I’m not going to lie, 12 wins may be a little more of a function of the schedule than quite how good the team is. If the Titans make the switch prior to Week 11, they should have six games against rookie quarterbacks and face the NFC South, which included four teams below .500 last season.

#2, Kansas City Chiefs, 12-5

I do have the Chiefs winning 12 games and continuing their reign over the AFC West. The questions heading into 2023 are quite similar to a year ago, with even less proven commodities at wide receiver and arguably also edge rusher. That’s along with losing offensive coordinator Eric Bienemy and an underrated play-making safety in Juan Thornhill.

With that being said, we’ve seen Mahomes elevate a lackluster receiving corp, as long as he has Travis Kelce and the protection to hold up during the tenure of the scheduled play, before Pat makes magic happen in the second phase.

If the young guys in the secondary take a step, we could see DC Steve Spagnuolo’s unit take pressure off the other side of the ball more consistently this year. Going through their schedule, facing the full AFC East and a rematch with the Eagles as their “unique” NFC game got me to five losses, including Week 2 at Jacksonville, which broke the tie between those two sides.

#3, Baltimore Ravens, 11-6

When I think of a sleeping giant inside the AFC, the Ravens are my pick to really make some noise this season. I started this article by outlining why I believe Lamar Jackson will win NFL MVP, as they open up the offense under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken and the trio of wide receivers they’ve assembled.

Then Roquan Smith is a Defensive Player of the Year candidate, looking at the turnaround they saw on that unit once he arrived in the Charm City. They now provide much more firepower offensively and more willingness to bring different ideas to the table on defense under coordinator Mike Macdonald heading into year two.

Baltimore won 10 games last season despite not having Lamar for basically the final six weeks and several other injuries. Now all they need is decide one more contest in their favor, which I think is a conservative projection if just one of their young edge defenders can take a jump in applying more consistent pressure.

#4, Buffalo Bills, 10-7

As you can see, I project there to be a highly competitive battle for the AFC East, with three 10-7 teams ultimately making the dance. The reason I was fine with the Bills ultimately having the edge (other than having won the division and at least made it to the second round of the playoffs each of the past three years) is the fact they have the biggest edge in net rest days (+12) across the NFL, according to Warren Sharp.

I’m curious about how exactly they deploy first-round tight-end Dalton Kincaid (Utah) and what elements offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey in his second season calling plays will incorporate in order to take pressure off Josh Allen to not always have to be Superman.

On defense, I did not have Von Miller to be as crucial to their success during the regular season already, but getting him back after seeing how they dropped off following his injury will be huge. They do, however, need young guys at all three levels to step up if they want to compete atop the AFC.

#5, Cincinnati Bengals, 10-7

Similar to the East, I believe the AFC North is the division sending multiple teams to the postseason and they similarly have four teams winning double-digit games.

The Bengals are the most well-established of the bunch, having gone to conference title games in each of the last two years and being the squad that gives the Chiefs the most trouble. So, if just make it into the tournament, they can beat anybody, but I have them settling for 10 wins (the same amount as in 2021, when they ended up going to the Super Bowl).

The Ravens getting to play the Titans, Dolphins and Chargers is certainly an easier road than vs. the Bills, at the Chiefs and Jaguars. While I believe their new safety duo has a lot of potential, that unit kind of ran through a couple of veterans they’re now replacing and there could be a bit of an adjustment period.

The calf injury to Joe Burrow is worrisome, in terms of how long it might bother him, even if he doesn’t miss time. A 2-4 division record, with two straight rivalry games to start the year, doesn't help.

#6, Miami Dolphins, 10-7

I originally intended on having the Dolphins win the AFC East going into this exercise and just predicting every single game, that could have easily been the case, not paying attention to the tie-breakers.

If they had Jalen Ramsey from the start, I might’ve given them one extra win to elevate them, but they’re another one of those teams that if they play their best game collectively, there’s nobody they can’t take down in their way.

With Vic Fangio taking over play-calling on the defensive side, a pretty drastic shift is expected in terms of philosophy. But I believe they’ll be more sound on the back end with less pressure on the individual pieces and with the ways Vic can change up the picture for quarterbacks, give that defensive line more time to get home (which is why I mentioned Jaelan Phillips as a contender for DPOY).

Now it’ll be up to how Mike McDaniel continues to evolve his offensive system, as we saw defensive coordinators find solutions for the few plays that terrorized the NFL. Much depends on whether Tua can stay upright, behind an O-line that still needs to be masked to some degree in order to not expose the individual pieces in designated dropback situations.

#7, New York Jets, 10-7

Finally, I ended up with the Jets also sneaking in over three 9-8 teams. A Week 17 win over the Browns is what sealed it for them, since I had them losing to the Chargers head-to-head, while they shared the same record within the AFC.

The hype around Gang Green is pretty insane right now and if don’t win a Super Bowl in the two years most likely they’ll have Aaron Rodgers, that would be disappointing for many New Yorkers.

How exactly that offensive line comes together and how consistent the pass-catching options outside of Garrett Wilson can be certainly deserves to be questioned, but a super-motivated Rodgers can elevate this unit. This will only be more pronounced if Breece Hall is close to 100%, and they can return to the strong rushing attack we saw until the star rookie got hurt.

Theoretically, if that unit can at least be slightly above average, the defense playing as well as they did in 2022 should make them a serious playoff contender, since they just finished top-six in yards, points, DVOA and EPA per play. I’d love to see them in some more high-scoring matches, because then we’d get to see a super-deep and ferocious pass-rush get to shine.

Just missed the cut: Los Angeles Chargers (9-8), Cleveland Browns (9-8), Pittsburgh Steelers (9-8) & New England Patriots (8-9)

2023 NFL season playoffs: Wild Card round

NFC

• 2. Seattle Seahawks (12-5) OVER 7. New Orleans Saints (9-8)
• 6. Dallas Cowboys (10-7) OVER 3. Detroit Lions (10-7)
• 5. San Francisco 49ers (11-6) OVER 4. Atlanta Falcons (10-7)

AFC

• 2. Kansas City Chiefs (12-5) OVER 7. New York Jets (10-7)
• 6. Miami Dolphins (10-7) OVER 3. Baltimore Ravens (11-6)
• 5. Cincinnati Bengals (10-7) OVER 4. Buffalo Bills (10-7)

2023 NFL season playoffs: Divisional round

NFC

• 6. Dallas Cowboys (10-7) OVER 1. Philadelphia Eagles (12-5)
• 2. Seattle Seahawks (12-5) OVER 5. San Francisco 49ers (11-6)

AFC

• 1. Jacksonville Jaguars (12-5) OVER 6. Miami Dolphins (10-7)
• 5. Cincinnati Bengals (10-7) OVER 2. Kansas City Chiefs (12-5)

2023 NFL season playoffs: Conference Championships

• 5. Cincinnati Bengals (10-7) OVER 1. Jacksonville Jaguars (12-5)
• 2 Seattle Seahawks (12-5) OVER 6. Dallas Cowboys (10-7)

That brings up to NFL Super Bowl LVIII ...