Mr Gruden goes to Washington – Understanding the effect of the Redskins’ new Head Coach

ASHBURN, VA – JANUARY 09: Jay Gruden speaks as he is introduced as the new head coach of the Washington Redskins during a press conference at Redskins Park on January 9, 2014 in Ashburn, Virginia. (Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images)

Last week, the Washington Redskins moved on from the disappointing reign of Mike Shanahan by replacing the dismissed head coach with Cincinnati Bengals offensive coordinator Jay Gruden.

The appointment should not come as much of a surprise; Gruden, the brother of Super Bowl winning head coach Jon Gruden, has spent the last three years as offensive co-ordinator for the Bengals and had garnered interest from NFL franchises for two of them.

Although he only has three years of experience as a coordinator in the NFL, Gruden has already served as head coach of a football franchise. He spent a total of eight years as head coach of the Orlando Predators in the Arena Football League, winning two Arena Bowls and grabbing the attention of the Cincinnati Bengals in the process. He also spent six years as a coaching assistant with the Tampa Buccaneers, learning from his brother and helping the franchise win Super Bowl XXXVII. This is not a man without credentials.

Those prior credentials, however, are not the reason that Gruden has been such a sought after commodity in recent seasons. Arena Bowl victories and a famous brother do not get you head coaching opportunities in the NFL. So what exactly has Gruden done to deserve this job?

Gruden’s Résumé

Gruden was handed the keys to the Cincinnati offense in 2011, and soon after was given the team drafted rookie quarterback/wide receiver duo Andy Dalton and AJ Green. What Gruden has done in the ensuing three years has been quite impressive.

It all began with a relatively underwhelming performance in 2011; Gruden’s unit finished 18th in the NFL in points scored and 20th in yards. However, it must not be forgotten that he was working with a rookie quarterback and an offense bereft of any real weapons outside rookie wide receiver AJ Green.

It was an encouraging start, Gruden managed to squeeze a final year of productivity out of ageing running back Cedric Benson, who had only one more year of significance in the league after that 2011 campaign. He also guided Green towards a remarkable 1,000 yards receiving season, allowing the receiver and quarterback Dalton to surpass the all-time NFL record for yards and receptions by a rookie quarterback/wide receiver tandem.

In 2012, Gruden built upon the foundations set in 2011, lifting his unit to 12th in points and 22nd in yards. In his final year in 2013 he improved upon it again, finishing the season 6th in points scored and 10th in yards.

Gruden has improved his offense every single year; it is a trend that should not go unnoticed or underappreciated. He steadied the ship in Cincinnati, developing young talent and preventing any major hiccoughs from occurring. Andy Dalton did not suffer the famed sophomore slump in his second year, for example. Gruden managed to skilfully create a scheme that was simple enough for Dalton to run whilst keeping AJ Green the centre of attention for three straight years.

Jay Gruden molded his offence in Cincinnati around quarterback Andy Dalton (right) and wide receiver AJ Green (left)

On an individual level, Gruden has shown a knack for nurturing young stars. AJ Green has recorded 1,000 yard seasons in each of his first three years in the league, and has improved his production (yards and catches) in every year, despite beginning his career with an already impressive rookie campaign. For his efforts, Green has already amassed three pro bowl appearances and two All-Pro selections.

Andy Dalton has also improved every year, although his development is a little murkier. Whilst Dalton’s passing yards, touchdowns and percentage of touchdowns thrown have all increased each year, so have his interception totals.

However, his interception totals may only be increasing because his passing attempts have also increased. And while he is throwing more interceptions each year, he is managing to increase his level of consistency. If we look at the individual performances over his career, Dalton recorded 8 games in 2011 with a quarterback rating of below 80.00. In 2012 he reduced that number to 7 such games , and in 2013 he reduced it again, this time to 5.

Dalton, with the help of Gruden, has been decreasing the number of poor games that he has in a season, becoming slightly more consistent and dependable. It isn’t a drastic change, and it doesn’t mean that Dalton is becoming an elite quarterback by any means, but it is a steady and encouraging improvement. At this stage, it might be prudent to believe that Gruden has developed Dalton to the peak of the quarterback’s abilities.

Falling at the first hurdle

NFL Network’s Rich Eisen recently questioned why Gruden was a serious head coaching candidate given his poor playoff record. Others have followed suit, including the Cincinnati fans themselves who are pleased that Gruden is no longer on the staff. This doesn’t seem to bode well for the Washington Redskins or their new coach:

Gruden’s playoff record is a big concern for many. Although the Bengals have made the wild card round in each of Gruden’s three years, they have lost all three of those contests with a total of only 33 points scored, and no more than 13 in a single game. To many, this is seriously troubling, and the single biggest question mark hovering over the otherwise impressive coach. Why can’t he win the big games?

However, the evidence suggests that we should be willing to give Gruden the benefit of the doubt here. It isn’t exactly his fault that Andy Dalton decides to turn into Mark Sanchez every time he gets into the playoffs. A co-ordinator can only be as strong as his quarterback, and Dalton deserves far more blame for those playoff performances than Gruden does. He put the trust in his quarterback in his game plans, and the quarterback let him down.

All things considered, Gruden’s success with the Bengals offense probably earns him the right to take a head coaching job. Even if he owes a lot of his success to the talents of AJ Green, Gruden deserves a great portion of the credit himself. He garnered the potential in his young star, he improved and developed his unit each and every year, and he somehow got consistent productivity out of Andy Dalton.

The Quarterback Whisperer

The Redskins, no doubt, will be hoping that Gruden’s skills and background working with quarterbacks will equip him for the job at hand in Washington. He has shown over the years that he has the necessary tools to return Robert Griffin III back to his electric 2012 form, and as far away as possible from the hesitant, inaccurate quarterback that the Redskins had to deal with this season.

Washington’s primary concern is fixing the slump that franchise quarterback Robert Griffin III has found himself in

They will also be hoping that their new coach can be a big asset in fixing the Redskins red-zone woes. This past season under Gruden, the Bengals boasted the second best red zone touchdown percentage in the league, behind only the offensive juggernaut of the Denver Broncos.

The Redskins, meanwhile, were a lowly 21st in red zone touchdowns, despite ranking a lofty 9th in yards. Both the stats and the tape tell us that Washington had an offense that could move the ball down the field, but ultimately were unable to convert that into points on the board. Pierre Garcon, the Redskins’ best wide receiver, believes his new coach can fix that:

“We didn’t score points in the red zone and finish drives,” Garcon told NFL Network. “Third down and red zone was the number one thing that we didn’t do well on…They did well in Cincinnati with their red zone offense. I think he can definitely bring in some new wrinkles … “

Keeping Haslett

Jay Gruden has the tools to be successful in Washington. Having said that, there is a real possibility that he is going to fail in his new role. It has nothing to do with his offensive record, the development of Robert Griffin III or the offensive side of the ball at all. The real concern with hiring Jay Gruden is what is going to happen to the defense.

When Gruden came to Washington, it was made abundantly clear that Jim Haslett would be staying on as the team’s defensive coordinator. This was no surprise, as during his time with the Florida Tuskers in the UFL, Gruden served under Haslett who was head coach of the team in 2009.

Why Redskins’ owner Dan Snyder is choosing to keep Haslett on is unclear. It might be because of Haslett’s links to Gruden and the chemistry they have. It could also be because they are waiting for his contract to expire so they can avoid buying him out and save money. Don’t put it past Dan Snyder to be that cheap. Regardless of whether the reason is friendship or frugality, it is a damaging move for the organisation.

A legacy of mediocrity

The Washington Redskins defense, under the guidance and tutelage of Jim Haslett, has been one of the worst in the NFL during his employment. Below is a list of his defense’s final rankings during each of his four seasons. He has overseen an above league-average defense only once, during the 2011 season:

2010 – 21st in points allowed, 31st in yards allowed.

2011 – 21st in points allowed, 13th in yards allowed.

2012 – 22nd in points allowed, 28th in yards allowed.

2013 – 30th in points allowed, 18th in yards allowed.

As far as Haslett is concerned, those numbers are a reflection of the salary cap penalties that the Redskins have endured over the last few seasons. The financial restraints, he would argue, have impacted his ability to put a good defense on the field.

A good defense is not about talent alone. It is about the scheme, and what you can do with the players that are given to you. Haslett has never figured out what to do with his, and there is no reason to assume he will start doing so now.

ASHBURN, VA – CIRCA 2011: In this handout image provided by the NFL, Jim Haslett of the Washington Redskins poses for his NFL headshot circa 2011 in Ashburn, Virginia. (Photo by NFL via Getty Images)

This could spell disaster for Gruden. When an NFL team brings in an offensive-minded head coach like Gruden, it’s essential that the team also bring in a strong and qualified defensive staff. Gruden, after all, is only going to be able to fix one side of the ball.

If he were smart, the new coach would consider bringing in his own assistants; men who can come in and provide a fresh perspective to a defense that has been spluttering for years. Instead, he (or perhaps Dan Snyder) has decided to rely on his friend Haslett and hope for the best. It is likely going to bring nothing but more of the same mediocre product that Haslett become so distinguished at producing.

Will it work?

Jay Gruden appears to be a decent football coach. Most importantly, he is a very good quarterback coach and that, above all else, is what the Redskins need right now. Second year quarterback Robert Griffin III more than doubled his interceptions total from his rookie campaign, as well as dropping from a 65 to 60% completion rate, doubling his fumbled from 3 to 6 and losing over a yard in his yards-per-passing-attempt average. Fixing “RG3” is the organisation’s number one priority, and as a quarterback guru Gruden is well equipped for the task.

Whether Gruden will be a success in Washington is really an unknown at this point. He has never worked with a mobile quarterback like Griffin before, and he has only three years of experience as a coordinator in the NFL on his résumé. With that in mind, the risk Dan Snyder has taken is great; he has handed a five year contract to a man who hasn’t even been a co-ordinator in the NFL for that long.

If Gruden can bring 2012 form back to RG3 and his offence, many people may consider his appointment to be a success. However, things are not that simplistic. If the new coach is to bring a winning record back to the D.C. area, he is going to have to rely on others to help him do it.

His friend, Jim Haslett, now holds all the cards. Justified or not, Haslett has been given a new chance to right the wrongs of previous years and finally fix one of the least inspiring defenses in football.

It is a lot of responsibility to bear, but for Haslett, for Gruden, and for the sake of the many fans of the long suffering franchise, let’s hope he can do it. Let’s hope he can repay the faith with something better than a 20th ranked defense.

So when all the CIN fans are excited that your team’s new head coach is no longer on their team…that can’t be good, right?

— Matthew Berry (@MatthewBerryTMR) January 9, 2014