I contemplated giving my own take on the ridiculous Instagram comparison that some Seahawks fan did between quarterbacks Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick, but I realized that this game is going to be great because of the people on the field, not those in the stands (except Sports with Biers very own Josh Biers and Matt Tuckness who will be making the trek to Seattle to root on the boys in the Clink) and I would just be taking away from the teams, so I won’t. Instead, I want to talk about what I feel is the most important factor for a Niners victory on Sunday, sustained drives.
Now this might sound painstakingly obvious, teams that usually sustain drives win games, but Seattle does such a good job when they play teams at home of quickly getting the opponents into 3rd downs, allowing the crowd to have a rallying point and making it even harder for the opponents to convert. The Niners have had trouble sustaining any drives when they have traveled the last two years, producing only 3 drives of over 30 yards with the games within 14 points.
This inability to put anything resembling pressure on the Seahawks defense is what, in my mind, has contributed to the great score discrepancies the in the last two games.These lack of long, or even average, drives are due to many factors, but I think the two most important factors to breaking the Niners out of this Seattle funk will be getting the running game going early and Kaep’s ability to beat the best pass defense there is.
Establishing the running game seems so obvious, but it is something the Niners have failed to do in each of the last 2 games in Seattle, with Frank Gore on getting 15 total carries and averaging 2.9 yards on those carries.Meanwhile, when the Niners have beaten the Seahawks in San Francisco, Gore has topped 100 each game while getting a total of 33 carries. For some reason, the Niners have completely abandoned the run when they are in Seattle and that cannot happen again.
I understand that they have been down, especially the first game, but they were down big against both the Falcons and Ravens in the playoffs last year and they stuck to the run, ultimately bringing those games close. These run game failures fall on the offensive line as much, if not more, than on Gore, as they have not been able to open up the consistent run lanes that Niners fans have become accustomed to. This is not a call for the Niners to average 5 or 6 yards per carry, but they do need to feed Mr. Gore and the line needs to be able to gain an advantage in their power blocking schemes to make this trip a successful one.
The Niners offensive line is going to need to show out on Sunday, both run and pass blocking.
A respectable running game will lead into the second point of emphasis, Kaepernick vs the Seahawks pass defense. This pass defense is all encompassing, made up of a great pass rush and great back line coverage, sprinkled in with some very athletic linebackers who close up underneath holes very quickly. Put simply, this Seahawks pass defense has it all, and for a team that is built to run, that has posed many problems. But if the Niners establish the run game early, this will open up the best part of the Niners pass game, play action. Kaep still leaves much to be desired when it comes to taking 5 step drops and throwing the ball, but he always looks very comfortable when faking to a running back and then throwing.
The threat of a run will force the Seahawks linebackers to stick closer to the line, negating their speed in dropping back and getting underneath Vernon Davis and Anquan Boldin as they work around the middle of the field. It will then put pressure on All-Pro safety Earl Thomas to really show his range, as he would not have as much help underneath, giving Kaep bigger windows to work with. Because the Seahawks play a hybrid man-zone (man on the outside, zone on the inside), play action won’t affect the wide receiver/corner matchups, Kaep must be ready to then step up in the pocket if his over the middle reads are covered. The Seahawks have done a decent job in keeping Kaepernick from hurting them rushing, allowing only two scrambles in the September matchup of consequence. Kaep will need to keep plays alive when receivers inevitably do not get open, evading the Seahawks plethora of pass rushers to make plays with his feet or his arm.
If the Niners are able to produce a net positive in these two facets, I believe it will go a long way into reversing the bad fortunes the team has faced in the last two trips to Seattle.
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