2023 Fantasy Football regression red flags: Why you should stay away from Derrick Henry and Jamaal Williams

Each Fantasy Football season offers a different set of values for every NFL player. Where they rank among other fantasy players is determined by a wide set of various factors, including past performances and individual role changes. Weighing the many different variables for each NFL player helps determine their specific value for an upcoming Fantasy Football season.

Closely analyzing each fantasy player can help determine who to target and avoid on draft day. Smart fantasy managers will look to select players with a ton of upside and reasons to believe they will progress. They will also focus on staying away from certain players who are showing alarming red flags that could potentially lead to significant regression.

Two running backs who could be in danger of fantasy regression during the 2023 NFL season are Derrick Henry and Jamaal Williams. Each have been previously reliable in different ways, but demonstrate signs that they could be better off avoided this year.

Why to avoid Jamaal Williams in 2023 Fantasy Football season

Jamaal Williams

Jamaal Williams finished the 2022 Fantasy Football season as the 12th-ranked running back by total fantasy points. His excellent campaign is mostly a result of leading the entire NFL with 17 rushing touchdowns. His role with the Detroit Lions gave him almost all of the goalline touches, while his touches significantly increased due to D'Andre Swift dealing with injuries.

Williams enters a much different situation for the 2023 season after signing with the New Orlean Saints during the offseason. He's unlikely to get nearly as many touches as he did last year, now competing with Alvin Kamara and rookie Kendre Miller in a crowded backfield. He will also probably share some of the goalline carries with super-utility player Taysom Hill.

All of these factors suggest that Jamaal Williams is highly likely to take a step backwards this year in Fantasy Football. His decreased volume will presumably make him extremely touchdown-dependent and that's never a positive sign for fantasy value.

It may be wise to pass on Derrick Henry in 2023 fantasy drafts

Derrick Hnery

Derrick Henry has finished among the top five running backs in three of the last four Fantasy Football seasons. He also exceeded an insane 320 touches in each of those seasons, averaging more than 20 touches per game. There's reason to believe that his usage will begin to decrease starting in the 2023 NFL season, which could significantly decrease his fantasy value.

The Titans used their 81st overall pick in the third-round of the 2023 NFL Draft to select Tyjae Spears as the fifth running back off the board. This suggests they could be exploring the idea reducing Henry's load, especially considering he will turn 30 years old this season. They also signed DeAndre Hopkins in free agency, so his targets could potentially take away some of Henry's touches as well.

While Derrick Henry will still likely finish among the top 20 running backs in Fantasy Football this year, he could be best avoided because where he is often selected in drafts. It will almost definitely require a first-round pick to land Henry, where there are other options with more upside this season.