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After talking about the veteran NFL players changing places, the rookies entering the league and the biggest needs for each team, I went back to watching guys who recently entered the fray and could emerge as household names in 2023. In particular, this exercise is aimed at finding the NFL.
In order to bring some fresh names to the table, I didn’t include players who have already recorded 1,000 rushing or receiving yards, 4,000 passing yards, scored double-digit touchdowns or earned a Pro Bowl or All-Pro nomination so far.
Furthermore, I didn’t list somebody like New York Jets running back Breece Hall, who was on pace for those kinds of benchmarks prior to getting injured (or some other names that are largely already considered to be young stars).
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#1, Desmond Ridder, Atlanta Falcons (Q)
Probably the most surprising part about last year’s draft was how the NFL collectively handled the quarterback class. After the Steelers selected home-grown Pitt signal-caller Kenny Pickett 20th overall, it took all the way until pick 74 for Desmond Ridder to become QB2 off the board.
The 6’4”, 215-pound passer improved all four years with Cincinnati, coming off the bench in the second game of his redshirt freshman season and never relinquished the job. He ended up throwing for over 10,000 yards and rushed for another 2,180, combining for 116 touchdowns across 50 career games (28 interceptions).
As a rookie for the Falcons, he didn’t see the field at all through Weeks 1 to 14, despite a highly inconsistent passer in Marcus Mariota holding down that spot. Ultimately, he started the final four games against the Saints, Ravens, Cardinals and Buccaneers.
Atlanta lost the first two of those on the road and then won the latter two at home. Overall, he completed 73 of 115 passes (63.5%) for 708 yards and two touchdowns (both in the season-finale), with no interceptions, along with 16 carries for 64 yards.
Ridder is an excellent rhythmic thrower, who delivers the ball right as that back-foot hits the turf, reading high-low concepts and working timing-based routes with the boundary receiver. He’s clearly very intent on not leading his receivers into traffic and protecting them from hits (at times almost to his demise, where he puts it slightly behind his target and now the trailing defender can disrupt the catch-point).
However, that awareness and mindset generally is a positive. Specifically, he excels at hitting benders and seam routes, understanding when he can split the safeties or has to drive it to the back shoulder of his guys.
The chemistry with fellow rookie Drake London was apparent, as Ridder targeted him at least eight times in each of his four starts and overall the receiver hauled in 25 of 36 looks his way for 333 yards and one touchdown. In particular, he really liked going his way over the middle on key downs.
On quick-game, he’s mature enough already when the concept is dead, to understand where his “throw-away option” is and to not force anything. Yet, he’s also comfortable turning his back to the defense off play-action and waiting a beat for his targets to clear zone defenders, in order to hit them behind those.
There were lots of two-man concepts down the field for Atlanta, where the QB didn’t have anybody open, but he showed the presence of mind to find some space to slip toward and at least flip it out to the back in the flats or take off through a lane up the middle.
The rookie signal-caller understands where the pressure may be coming from pre-snap and slightly drifts that way during his drop at times, in order to have just enough time to deliver timing-based throws further down the field. You see some impressive lateral movement when defenses overload one side and he slides away from it whilst staying in a throw-ready position.
When there’s somebody flashing up the field and Ridder needs to climb towards the line of scrimmage, he shows a pretty flexible arm to where he doesn’t have both cleats in the ground and he drops down the arm angle to get it out a little quicker. He generates plenty of velocity on the ball when getting back downhill after rolling outside the pocket, to drive deep comebacks and out routes off their bootleg game.
Yet, even when he can’t get his base aligned properly and is almost fading away with the backside edge defender staying home and teeing off on him, Ridder can flick it to somebody working along with him. Along with that, while he may not be top-tier in terms of the explosive rushing threats, that 4.52 speed shows up when he has room to build and run away from most front-seven defenders.
Ridder has the slipperiness to him, where you saw him wiggle out of some muddy pockets and arms swinging at him. There are moments where you watch the All-22 and it looks like he’s getting swallowed up in the pocket, but all of a sudden he pops out of there, where you need the end-zone angle to even understand what happened.
This young man has always shown great toughness not only to hang in the pocket with rushers charging at him, but also taking a draw up the middle in Baltimore and getting banged around by guys, yet still trying to fight for the goal-line.
Looking at the advanced numbers, Ridder only finishing 33rd in terms of EPA per play (-0.028) among quarterbacks with 100+ plays last season. He really struggled to throw to the left side, in particular on passes of 10+ air yards, where he completed just two of 11 attempts for 26 yards. And he definitely had the training wheels on, in terms of what he was asked to do over that final month of the season.
According to PFF, 55.7% of his pass attempts either were screens and came off play-action (64 of 115). Several of those screens came on second- and third-and-long, rather than Atlanta allowing the rookie to make those crucial decisions.
Mechanically, you see him drag that back-foot along at times instead of leading the motion with those hips, which is where you see some inaccuracies relying on his arm to do all the work, sailing passes a little bit or forcing guys to go to the ground instead of setting up YAC opportunities.
He shows a wide base and fairly long release, which made him just late on some of their play-action concepts and generally in terms of timing up when he could attack windows, whilst still working to find the right trajectory on deep balls along the sideline.
Ridder at this point is a rather lethargic progression-style passer, which is indicated by a time-to-throw mark of exactly three seconds and a big reason he took nine sacks during his limited time on the field, with a massive pressure-to-sack conversion rate of 20.9%.
Too often he would escape the pocket towards the side without any eligible receivers and basically put himself into a one-on-one with a hang-defender or linebacker sitting there. Plus, then he’d hold on to it for way too long and either take a (near) sack or just an unnecessary hit.
Going back to Ridder’s pro debut at New Orleans, seeing the offense start the day with a couple of punts and what should’ve been interceptions, before they tried to take the ball out of his hands in an end-of-half drive, I got really worried.
Things started to turn around a bit from the Arizona game onwards, where Arthur Smith would spread out the formation and allow his QB to attack more static zone-coverage looks with quick-game, keying conflict defenders and ways for his quarterback to identify and take advantage of leverage advantages.
Looking at his passer ratings vs. man (75.3) or zone (97.7), that was clearly helpful to Ridder. He didn’t have a unicorn-like pass-catcher in Kyle Pitts at all, who was already on IR with a torn MCL at that point, and you saw opposing teams play a lot of man-coverage in obvious passing situations, without any real separators across the board for Atlanta.
This is something I don’t believe casual football fans realize – playing quarterback in a run-heavy offense, before they ask that guy to deliver in key situations is tough – which is why you can’t blame the coaching staff for protecting Ridder from himself to some degree, in order to not build up bad tendencies.
Now they enter year three under Arthur Smith in ATL, where the O-line really started coming together in 2022, Drake London is coming off a promising rookie campaign and Ridder showed a definite rapport with him as by far his favorite target – a healthy Kyle Pitts. Add a generational running back prospect in Bijan Robinson, who can split out wide and be far more than just an “eligible” in the pattern.
With a potential superstar in Bijan handling the ball, plus Tyler Allgeier as a solid hammer inside, along with the big-play opportunities they can create off play-action, the insane positional flexibility across their skill-position group and hopefully a bigger focus on creating favorable passing looks on early downs, I believe Ridder can absolutely take advantage of that situation.
#2, Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (RB)
It was a steep climb for Rachaad White to go from complete unknown to the 91st selection of the 2022 NFL draft in a couple of years. A zero-star recruit two years prior, who spent two years at community college before slowing coming along with Arizona State, he put up just over 1,000 yards rushing and caught 43 passes for another 456 yards, with 16 total touchdowns as a redshirt senior.
Coming to Tampa Bay, he became part of the least efficient rushing attacks in the NFL, as the Bucs averaged 0.3 yards less per carry (3.4) than any other team in the league. Yet, a certain offensive coordinator would make you believe the numbers weren’t that far off compared to years prior and the team continuously talked about how they needed to continue running the ball.
Altogether, they turned a minuscule 19.5% of carries into first downs (79 across 405 attempts), which also ranked dead last. White himself turned 129 carries into 481 yards (3.73 yards per), along with catching 50 of 58 targets for another 290 yards, with three combined touchdowns.
He also converted 11 touches into 77 yards in their Wild Card playoff game against the Cowboys (two uncatchable targets). He didn’t receive double-digit opportunities until week nine and then started the final eight games, across which he touched the rock 121 times.
For a 210-pound back, White has impressively light feet and looks like he’s almost gliding out there on the field. Whether it’s pivoting off the outside foot as he takes the counter handoff from shotgun, or pointing to the toe towards the sideline when he realizes he has to bounce runs, you don’t typically see guys his size make those directional changes look as effortless.
Throughout his debut campaign, White definitely improved his pacing as a runner, as you see him tightly hug blockers and lean the wrong way on purpose. On duo-blocking, he stays square behind his linemen with the ability to hesitate and cut down his stride length in order to allow those concepts to develop. But how he also tilts his body in order to get first-level defenders peaking that way, whilst the linebacker is being secured, and he creates a lane for himself.
Yet on GT power or counter, when there’s an opportunity slice through the crease between the two pullers, he will purposefully aim vertically at the inside shoulder of the wrap-around to get the backer pinned there and then hit that lane he originally intended to take.
91 of his 129 total rushing attempts last season were gap schemes, but 41 of that mark went outside the tackle/tight-end – so plenty of toss plays, where he has enough burst to win the corner. However, a significantly larger rate of those (44.2 vs. 36.5%) came from shotgun compared to Leonard Fournette, coming on as a third-down back over the first half of the year.
White packs a nice jump cut to navigate around defenders crashing across the face of his blockers and having to quickly avoid the penetration. Then, he does a great job of contorting his body and reducing the surface area as defenders try to hit him from the side. That’s how he averaged 2.33 yards after contact and forced 14 missed tackles as a runner, according to PFF.
More impressively, while he only had an average depth of target of -0.3 yards, White still earned a passer rating of 99.0 when targeted, dropping just two passes and forcing ten additional missed tackles across 52 catchable targets – not a single one of those came 10+ yards down the field.
He has a great feel for releasing through the line of scrimmage and not getting hung up in traffic, plus while he’s not like a dynamic separator on angle or option routes, he doesn’t lose much time in his transitions, in order to quickly present himself as a target.
White consistently extends for the ball, even as he turns back towards the quarterback on hooks for example and shows great awareness for defenders converging on him, without actually being able to really see them.
If Brady put the ball onto his chest on swing routes before he could really turn back for it, the rookie back still typically didn’t double-catch, because his hands are soft enough to slow down the pace of the pass. However, it’s how fluidly he turns up the field all the time and puts himself in position to dictate one-on-one tackling situations that really stood out to me.
He was really effective at making flat defenders miss once he secured the catch, with some maneuvers that are hard to counter for those opponents, as he squares them up and cuts or spins off the “wrong” foot at times. Plus, then he gets to a secondary move instinctively and can utilize that spatial and bodily awareness to not allow guys to get a straight shot at him.
In terms of pass protection, he quickly erases that space towards mugged-up linebackers and at least rides them off track when they come, to not affect his quarterback. Plus, he lands some solid chips before he releases into the flats or hooks up over the middle, allowing his tackles to square up their rushers.
With that being said, White in general plays fairly slow, and I would like to see him step on the gas after setting up blockers a little more. He was tied for 23rd last season – smack-dead down the middle – in time spent behind the line of scrimmage (2.77 seconds) among the 48 running backs listed by Next Gen Stats, with 90+ rush attempts.
However, looking at the guys that are “slower” with crossing the line, most of them operated in outside zone-heavy schemes, where they’re supposed to string plays out and create lateral flow. Whereas there was a lot of duo runs at Tampa, where the RB needs to manipulate one linebacker typically, along with tosses and power concepts, which can be looked at as B-/C-gap iso runs.
That’s kind of a representation of why I was significantly lower on him than where he was ultimately drafted, looking at that phase of runs where the decision is made but he doesn’t purposefully accelerate into imminent contact.
What has me encouraged in that regard is that he didn’t try to work around or spin off defenders for being as big as he is, but he needs to become better at setting the tone around the line of scrimmage, since we did see some strong finishes to his runs as a rookie.
At the same time, he’s a little too fast towards the point of attack at times and has to tip-toe around pressure points as pullers get crashed into and there’s little space to navigate. Along with that, he lacks real break-away speed and did fumble three times as a rookie – all lost.
Along with this typically not being my personal favorite profile for a runner, we have yet if he can provide more of a downfield element as a receiver, if the coaching staff gives him those types of chances in year two.
Yet, even though White certainly benefitted from a small pool of running backs I could choose from, because they were either already pretty established commodities or don’t have a clear path for lead duties, I did want to outline him here. He has the opportunity to earn a heavy workload with Leonard Fournette out and no significant additions, and he certainly looked better than I anticipated, taking the suboptimal circumstances into account.
Going from Tom Brady to Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask handing the ball to him, that’s a significant downgrade, but the Bucs still have a very strong trio of receivers, that allow them to spread defenses out and create lighter boxes.
With the switch at offensive coordinator from Byron Leftwich to Dave Canales, I expect them to go from static motions to a lot more players moving at the snap, along with expanding the field from condensed formations, where they could create some opportunities for rubs and wheel routes for the second-year RB.
#3, Terrace Marshall Jr., Carolina Panthers (WR)
A former five-star recruit, Terrace Marshall Jr. was slotted in behind Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase at LSU, but still put up 1,400 yards and 23 touchdowns across his final two seasons with the Tigers. He was then selected 59th overall as a junior in the 2021 NFL draft.
Looking at his early outputs as a pro, they aren’t where you’d like them to be generally, but he already took a massive jump from his first to his second season. He went from catching 17 of 30 targets for 138 yards and no touchdowns as a rookie to hauling in 28 of 47 looks for 490 yards and one TD this past year (in 13 and 14 games respectively).
Part of that was his snap rate (when available) increased from 48 to 76 percent, but he also made the most of his opportunities despite catching passes from quarterbacks that finished between 39th and 48th respectively in EPA per play (with at least 100+ plays) – Sam Darnold, P.J. Walker, Cam Newton (3.0) and Baker Mayfield.
Marshall converted 24 of those 28 receptions into first downs, even though 71.2% of his yardage came before the catch, as a very vertically-oriented target. Among the eight Panthers skill-position players with at least 20 targets last season, Marshall finished behind only Laviska Shenault – a gadget-type of player – with a passer rating of 102.3 when targeted.
Playing a major role in the ascent of this receiver heading into year three is that his usage saw a drastic shift in terms of alignment, as he went from spending just 38.8% of snaps on the outside in 2021 to 90.7% last season, while his yards per route run tripled (from 0.5 to 1.5 per). And looking at his depth of target in relation to the success on those, he actually was more effective the deeper his routes were, as his PFF grade actually increased from behind the line of scrimmage to 0-9, 10-19 and finally 20+ yards.
Looking at the entire NFL and players with 20+ targets, his 10.4 yards per target and 17.5 yards per reception ranked fifth and sixth respectively. And diving into the Next Gen Stats database, he was tied with Ja’Marr Chase, A.J. Brown and Garrett Wilson with an average of 2.6 yards of separation last season, whilst having the highest ADOT among those guys at 12.5 yards.
He was regularly asked to pull the deep coverage with skinny posts, to open up receivers working across the field from the opposite side, particularly off play-action. And defenses showed him plenty of respect, rarely allowing him to be isolated on the backside of three-by-one sets, with a safety clouding over the top.
You see Marshall step behind the inside foot to be able to push off and aim towards the outside edge of the corner on fades, in order to get to their hip level. Plus, then off that he packs a pretty wicked double-release as he plants with the outside foot and jumps inside of his man, who's flipping towards the sideline, making him a tough cover on streak routes.
He’s pretty sudden off the line, to create that instant separation after the snap when running shallow crossers from reduced splits. And he packs a beautiful double-up with that outside foot when trying to beat inside-shade press on slant routes.
For a fairly tall receiver, Marshall bends off either foot with ease, as he’s making those more rounded speed cuts, creating openings for the ball to arrive on quick-breaking routes against soft coverage, but also on deeper in-cuts after pushing the corner vertically. The way I do still really like him being deployed in the slot is as a vertical component, blowing by hook/overhang defenders rapidly and splitting three-deep coverages.
What sticks out about the way Marshall catches the ball is his body control to sort of disconnect his upper from his lower half when passes were slightly off target and how rapidly he pulls the ball into his frame, in order to not allow opponents to rake it out of his hands.
While his 61.0% contested catch rate from college hasn’t translated to the pros yet, he’s had a couple of impressive grabs off the backside of defenders and going to the ground. He was targeted quite a few times on those cover-two hole-shots, where he displayed the toughness to attack the ball in the air and hold onto it with the safety barreling over.
Moreover, he features a tight turn up the field, doesn’t shy away from accelerating into awaiting defenders and has the sturdy frame to clear arm tackles. Marshall is an excellent positional blocker, who consistently showcases appropriate patience to stay in front of and wall off defenders, forcing them to work around him.
If they do get too close and Marshall latches his hands into their frame, he typically stays engaged. You see him put slot defenders on the turf, when cracking back on perimeter-oriented plays, such as those swing screens Carolina threw off orbit motion to Laviska Shenault constantly late in the year.
The Panthers didn’t shy away from putting him in reduced splits or motioning him to the end of the line, taking care of the point man, or peeling back on linebackers with at least solid success. If the picture changes or he misses his initial assignment, Marshall is looking for work anyway rather than taking the play off.
On a less positive note, against straight press or defenders slightly shaded towards the sideline, Marshall wastes too much time trying to get into his vertical outside releases, stutter-stepping off the line. I would like to see him stack the corner in an earlier phase of the route. You also see it when he gets impeded in his progress and defers to taking a wider path around the flat-defender in cover two.
Marshall isn’t somebody you want to target on too many curl routes, because the way he cuts down his strides and the time it takes to snap back towards the QB invites his defender back into the picture.
He only hauled in only 7 of 19 contested targets last year. He would certainly benefit from using late eyes and hands when he does have a step on his man vertically, to where he doesn’t tip off the corner, being able to turn and locate the football, in order to make a play on it.
Hand-fighting mid-route and in general, to position himself for the catch are things he should get more active/aggressive with. His jump-stop technique is pretty good, while combining a 39-inch vertical jump with 33-inch arms gives him a nice 50-50 ball profile. But his 35% contested rate so far doesn’t match up to that.
With the ball in his hands, Marshall only forced four missed tackles in 2022 and one the year prior. Plus, he fumbled twice last season and dropped three of 31 catchable targets.
I think there’s a pretty defined player profile, that has proven to be successful at the NFL level, as a solidly built vertical receiver, who has plenty of upside as a ball-winner down the field as he continues to work on his craft. The reason he hasn’t “hit” as much as you’d like to see yet is largely based on the offense running kind of stale in terms of the designs they were using and the lackluster quarterback play.
In particular, he had a bunch of passes placed behind him on routes toward the middle of the field and a lot of the locations of those deeper targets forced Marshall to win through more excessive contact than necessary.
Now with Bryce Young – and even Andy Dalton, if he’s in the lineup for certain stretches – we can expect a lot more consistent accuracy. Looking at the route this receiver excelled most at during his time at LSU – the go ball as the flanker in three-by-one sets – Bryce, in particular, may not have a rocket arm, but the way he can get it up early and find the right trajectory, that could be a staple on the menu if teams leave Marshall isolated on the perimeter.
While he’s not a make-you-miss type of guy after the grab, among pass-catchers with 50+ targets, Marshall was tied for 19th in average YAC above expectation (1.2 yards per), according to Next Gen Stats.
#4, George Pickens, Pittsburgh Steelers (WR)
George Pickens only turned 22 years old in early March after entering the 2022 draft coming off a junior year where he only appeared in four games (due to recovering from a torn ACL suffered during spring practice). That was after setting the Georgia freshman receiving record with 727 yards as a top-50 overall recruit and following that up with 513 yards across eight years in year two with the Bulldogs.
So with a couple of big grabs downfield in both the SEC and National Championship games, he still ended up going pretty high at 52nd overall. As a rookie in Pittsburgh, he caught 52 passes for 801 yards and four touchdowns, plus three rush attempts for 24 passes and one more score.
He was highly effective on those opportunities, spending 87.7% of his snaps out wide. Not only did he turn 40 of 55 touches this past season into first downs, but a massive 87 percent of receiving total as a rookie came through the air, rather than after the catch, and he had the NFL’s third-highest average depth of target (14.7 yards) among players with 50+ targets.
Considering only three other teams averaged fewer yards per pass attempt than Pittsburgh, those numbers actually stand out even more glaringly.
According to Next Gen Stats, Pickens was given the smallest cushion among all WRs with 50+ targets last season (4.7 yards on average), as defenses tried to challenge him early and not allow him to build up speed as this vertical player.
He can really load up that first step in order to get even with his man in press alignment, by creating torque as he turns his back foot one way and then unloading the other, to shoot past the man with his shoulders slightly turned away from contact. He combines that with effective side-swipes with his hands to not allow DBs to impede or widen his release a whole lot.
At 6’3”, 200 pounds, Pickens can dish out subtle push-offs at the top of the route and use his body to shield the ball. Once the initial route is dead, he displays an innate feel for how to help out his quarterback, as he works around traffic and back down the stem, to present a secure target along the sideline, as the quarterback is moving that way.
Or he realizes when the defense isn’t protecting over the top and he converts vertically, for potential big plays off-script. His strong hands and capability of winning in contested situations are a definite plus in that regard and there’s potential to throw the ball up for him to make a play more regularly going forward.
Maybe no other receiver in the NFL, other than the Vikings’ Justin Jefferson, had more incredible, acrobatic catches than Pickens, where he displayed tremendous body control and hand-eye coordination. You see him box out, establish position and hang in the air to pluck the ball out of it tremendously well.
He seems unbothered for the most part with a defender in his hip pocket and overall hauled in a tremendous 67.9% of his contested catch opportunities (19 of 28). Plus, he crossed that rare bar of securing just over half of targets of 20+ yards (16 of 30), totaling 459 yards and three touchdowns on those, compared to no picks when the quarterback(s) went his way. That resulted in a passer rating of 131.9 when chucking it to him down the field.
This isn’t a dynamic space player necessarily with the ball in his hands, but he features a quick turn across the opposite shoulder and then is really strong to bump through a tackler or extend the ball for the marker with somebody trying to drag him down.
While I believe the highlight-like knockdowns of defenders as a blocker don’t quite tell the full story of Pickens being a dominant force in the run game, he does a great job of walling off DBs, being aware of the ball carrier’s movement and how to help string his teammate loose on plays where he’s near the point of attack.
When he does latch his hands into the frame of guys early, he can certainly take them for a ride. So if a DB just half-heartedly tries to engage with him, they run the risk of getting pan-caked out there.
Looking at the negatives, Pickens did drop four passes and I would have charged him with one more in the Colts game, where he extended his arms early and didn’t really pull the ball into his body before touching the ground. Being a little late with where he grabs the ball on its back end when it’s in an uncontested fashion cost him in that regard, which included letting an easy touchdown slip through his hands in their second Bengals game.
According to Matt Harmon from Reception Perception, Pickens had just a 68.3% win rate vs. zone – which was in the bottom fifth percentile – as somebody who can win on a vertical plane, along with the deep outs and comebacks off those. But he didn’t consistently create separation on the more high-volume routes that you’d associate with that type of X-player profile.
Watching him and Diontae Johnson run the same route with a lot of the mirror concepts they run under offensive coordinator Matt Canada, there is a visible difference in the way they break off routes (in terms of how snappy they are with sticking their foot in the ground and how precise they are with coming out of those).
While his usage as a vertical target didn’t lend itself to major run-after-catch ability, his 2.1 yards on average once the ball was in his hands, is rather underwhelming. He’s not this twitchy mover who will evade tacklers or features any type of creativity in the open field.
How meticulous Pickens becomes at the top of the route, in terms of keeping DBs guessing or actively manipulating what they read, will decide if he can become a true alpha or maybe somebody who will rely too much on his ability to win through contact at the catch-point. I believe he has that “dawg” in him, as people like to say these days, in terms of somebody with that “my ball” mentality, but also wanting to become a better all-around receiver.
You can’t teach the body-control, power and ball skills. He may never be a 100-catch guy, but the big plays he can produce through the air along with the potential of expanding his route tree, could make him a perennial 1,000-yard receiver. Considering from Week 4 on – when Kenny Pickett took over shortly before halftime – Pickens averaged 52.6 yards on just 5.1 targets per contest.
So as those two grow together in their second seasons as part of that system, we should see better chemistry – especially off script – and the rebounding specialist will demand more opportunities to make plays for his quarterback, even when it appears that he’s covered.
I also like the fact they basically swapped out Chase Claypool for Allen Robinson (along with getting a high-value draft pick from the Bears), to add a veteran presence to that WR corp and particularly how he can help Pickens teach reducing his bigger frame to win as a route-runner.
#5, Kadarius Toney, Kansas City Chiefs (WR)
Coming to Florida as a top-500 overall recruit back in 2017, Kadarius Toney only had 604 receiving yards and another good 400 yards rushing through his first three years at Florida. He then broke out with 1,145 yards and 11 touchdowns on 89 touches as a senior.
When the Giants picked him 20th overall in the 2021 draft (after trading back with the Bears, who were moving up for the sliding Justin Fields), this was a heavily-discussed selection considering New York was often linked to another pass-catcher DeVonta Smith and to some degree one of the top-two corners that year.
With all three off the board at that point, they decided to move back, yet Toney was expected to produce in a major way for a wide receiver group that lacked any high-volume target. However, he only played 301 total snaps as a rookie, due to getting banged up on multiple occasions, catching 39 of 57 targets for 420 yards and no touchdowns.
This past season, there seemed to be a clear misunderstanding of what his role on this team should be and his medical status for New York, as he logged 109 snaps through the first seven weeks, before getting traded to Kansas City for a third and a sixth-rounder this year.
Injuries continued to be a story with the Chiefs, as he was inactive for three weeks and across the ten total games (including playoffs), he only was in the offensive lineup for 139 snaps. However, he was able to turn 27 touches into 294 yards and four TDs, including one score and a huge punt return setting up the eventual game-winning one in the Super Bowl.
Right around six feet, just over 190 pounds, this young man is an absolute spark plug. To put what he did in his debut campaign into context, his 2.14 yards per route run as a rookie rank behind only: Julio Jones, A.J. Green, Doug Baldwin, Odell Beckham Jr., Tyreek Hill, Juju Smith-Schuster, Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase, since the inception of Pro Football Focus.
That number barely decreased to 2.06 in year two, despite his average depth of target falling off from 6.5 all the way to just 3.6 yards, and if you just look at what he did in Kansas City that number was actually 2.63 yards per route run (2.5 in the playoffs).
The passer rating when targeting him also sky-rocketed to 135.6 (fourth-highest among WRs with 20+ targets). The way he can drop his hips and burst out of pivot or zig routes is rare. He has incredible start-stop quickness and sudden movement skills, which is how he was able to regularly create separation on those more intricate routes.
At the same time, he can take guys vertically and in particular off motion, he becomes a problem to stick with. Your safety dropping down into the hook area or as a robber better not try to cheat up or get locked in on the quarterback if Toney is in the slot, because the speedy receiver might run behind his back on deep crossers.
At the same time, Toney can bring his momentum to a halt and pluck the ball out of the air, as the defender overruns the catch-point. With a 39 ½-inch vertical jump, he has more of a jump-ball skill set than you may realize with the way he typically moves around the field.
Then, he has that herky-jerky style of run-after-catch ability, where coming out of Florida two years ago, I said that he will be responsible for tearing some ACLs (even though it may include his own, because it felt somewhat like not even he knew exactly which movements to anticipate).
However, what it does to defenders, as he takes those widened steps, drops his weight and makes people miss by planting hard off either foot, is making it really to break down and secure tackles in space. Yet, if he does have to go through defenders in his path, his contact balance to blast into contact and bounces off guys is almost odd at his stature.
Altogether, he’s produced 22 missed tackles forced across 65 regular season touches, whilst averaging 6.9 yards after the catch this past season. The impromptu ability to dip inside of blockers without having to slow down basically taking pop-passes on fly sweeps, on bubble screens or just in general navigating around traffic across the field is insane.
With that being said, Toney would certainly help himself by adding a little more control and pacing as a route-runner, to not need the pure explosiveness to shake guys, but work in different footwork and body language to set guys up. The way he moves does make him incredibly difficult to stay in front of, but it also contributes to his own injuries and he could become a more complete player, capable of stressing opponents in a more multi-faceted way.
About a third of the routes he ran were either screens or quick outs. He’ll definitely need to expand that to stay on the field for extended stretches and be taken seriously as a receiver. So far, he’s dropped five of 60 catchable targets for his career, particularly when it was put around his belt area and he let the ball get into his frame too much.
Toney isn’t overly interested in getting involved as a blocker, as he isn’t looking to actually engage with guys a whole lot. That’s in part why he was mostly tagged with screen-fakes and pulling defenders with him on speed outs – which can still be valuable in helping spring the ball carrier loose, to be fair.
However, by far the biggest reason for doubt with Toney of course is the injury concerns. He missed 11 of 49 potential games at Florida and so far in the NFL he’s missed 15 of 34 regular contests, with nicks and bruises at his upper, lower half and mid-section at some point.
There’s no guarantee Toney will stay healthy in 2023, or that he’s immersed himself into the offense in a way that would make him stand above the rest for a fairly unproven group of receivers.
Last year, he went over 32% of offensive snaps in just one game with the Chiefs, once he got traded there in Week 8, with just ten total across the AFC Championship game and Super Bowl. He also wasn’t in the lineup at all in two-minute situations. However, listening to the comments of general manager Brett Veach and members of the coaching staff, it gives me hope that we only saw glimpses of what he could look like as part of that attack.
With a talent like this, you simply find ways to get him onto the field and put the ball in his hands. If he can show growth as a route-runner now, to be able to produce within the structure of your typical dropback game, along with the designated touches, in order to keep defenses guessing when he’s used as eye-candy, catching passes from the best quarterback in the game today, I’m very excited for what this COULD look like.
#6, Greg Dulcich, Denver Broncos (TE)
After seeing the field for very limited stretches his first two years at UCLA as a former zero-star recruit, Greg Dulcich caught 68 passes for 1,242 yards and ten touchdowns over the course of 19 games, averaging 18.3 yards per grab.
He ended up going as the 80th overall pick in 2022, as the third tight end off the board in a draft, where teams decided to wait on the position. For comparison, this year there were already seven guys selected at that point.
As a rookie, he missed the first five and the final two games, starting the year on injured reserve and was at least behind Albert Okwuegbunam on the depth chart, with Eric Tomlinson and Eric Saubert also commanding extended playing time thanks to their blocking capabilities.
However, when he was available, he ended up actually playing 75% of offensive snaps and hauled in 33 of 55 targets for 411 yards and two touchdowns, for a top-ten mark at the position in yards per grab (12.5 yards). The 6’4”, 245-pound gliding runner split snaps basically perfectly between in-line and the slot, with the remaining six percent spent out wide.
Among tight-ends with 50+ targets last season, Dulcich finished 17th in yards per route run (1.3) and tied for tenth in target separation (3.5 yards), according to PlayerProfiler.com. The only TEs, who were targeted at least double-digit times, with a higher average depth of target (12.7 yards per) were Darren Waller and Kyle Pitts.
The most impressive nugget here is that the only two tight-ends with double-digit yards of ADOT and at least three yards of separation on average are Mark Andrews and this guy – who actually averaged 0.4 yards more of separation (3.5), according to Next Gen Stats.
UCLA used Dulcich on a ton of seam routes and benders, and that vertical usage translated pretty directly to the next level. A front-seven defender won’t be able to hang with him accelerating down the middle of the field, unless they completely sell out.
Watching Denver’s Week 14 game when they hosted the Chiefs, on the very first offensive snap they took a shot off deep play-action to their rookie TE on a corner-post route 50 yards down the field (even though the hang-corner in cover-three fell off to him and there wasn’t much of a chance for cashing in).
His ability to release cleanly and clear the second level in a couple of steps should allow this team to access a part of the field that typically is open early on in the play clock and that could force defenses to cater their coverages towards it.
Off that, there were a bunch of opportunities for chunk plays that weren’t taken advantage of, as he pushed at the safety to his side and then bent it to the post or broke across the field, with nobody underneath him, who could really do anything against a ball with a little bit of arc to it at least.
The Broncos used Dulcich’s ability to stress defenses down the hashes, curling up in the 15-20 yard range, even when they were on schedule in terms of down-and-distance.
That speed can also be utilized on a horizontal plane, where they ran him open on shallow crossers out of stacks or make it tough for the middle-of-the-field defenders to pick him up on mesh concepts. Yet, he would also be tagged with those big over routes coming in behind a deep post off play-action, which typically is a staple in the Shanahan offenses, working from reduced split or as the tip-man in tight bunch sets.
He’s dynamic in the way he plants and breaks out to the sideline, or when defenders have to worry about carrying him vertically before he throws in a little chicken wing to come open over the middle of the field. Defenses already showed him a ton of respect when he was the single receiver to his side, by regularly bracketing him with a defender in outside press and a safety sitting over him basically.
Particularly on routes out towards the sideline, the trust in his hands really shows up, because he would consistently pluck it at its earliest point, rather than most guys allowing it to get closer to their frame, peaking back at the quarterback at a fairly challenging angle.
Because of how reliable his hands are, Denver designed plays for him on some third-and-short or -mediums, where they threw him passes out of the flats off rubs or legit screens, despite having Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy available.
Dulcich isn’t this elusive make-you-miss type of player in the open field, where most of his YAC come off him striding away from guys catching balls on the run, but he does pull out a nice spin move or jump-cut against the pursuit of defenders trying to barrel down in him. Plus, what I really like to see is him protecting the ball as he navigates around traffic, wrapping it tightly as defenders swipe at it from the side.
Dulcich needs to do a better job of using different speeds and forcing defenders to commit to the initial stem or break on double-moves, such as him not rushing through stick-nod routes in favor of making hook defenders believe they can undercut the out-break. He tips off his routes breaking toward the middle of the field a little bit and overall his intermediate route-running could use some refinement.
At this point, he’s fairly unproven at the NFL level in contested catch situations, of which he hauled in two of five as a rookie and Denver QBs had three interceptions throwing his way. That’s in part due to the fact he could do a better job of mid-pointing the space between zone defenders and not drifting toward traffic.
Physicality certainly is what’s missing the most from Dulcich’s game, where he tends to get hung up way too much by contact when defenses put somebody on him in press or were asked to jam him before bailing out in zone coverage. That reflects itself in a run-blocking grade of just 33.8 by PFF, where he tends to bear-hug defenders charging into him, doesn’t play with enough sink in his hips and therefore struggles to actually take control of reps.
You can’t fault him for missing effort, as he generally is able to get his hands on guys on the edge and not allow them to discard him quickly, whether that’s in the run game or some pass-pro. You’re just not going to be able to worry defenses with running towards him at the point, because he’s getting bent back by guys on the edge and mostly just keeps them from making the tackle.
While run-blocking was clearly the weakness of Dulcich’s game coming out of college, what I do appreciate is his effort in that regard. He takes away the space towards edge defenders and puts his body in the way, to where his man rarely actually makes the tackle.
He also does a nice job of squaring and holding up wide edge rushers on chips before releasing into the flats, where he also caught quite a few balls on leak routes off bootlegs.
We’ll have to see how much he can provide with a defender restricting his ability to cleanly attack the ball in the air, but he certainly provides a vertical component to where his gravity limits how defenses can approach spacing in zone coverage and who they can match him up with.
It would be completely unfair to compare Dulcich to Jimmy Graham, simply because they have certain differences in the profile they present already, but I could see Sean Payton using this guy in a similar light. If he now becomes more proactive with initiating and disengaging from contact as a route-runner, I believe he could turn himself into a real weapon.
#7, Bernhard Raimann, Indianapolis Colts (OT)
Picking up a football for the first team when he was 14 years old, this Austrian started his athletic career as a wide receiver for his local Vienna Vikings. After coming over to the US as an exchange student for a small high school program, he developed himself into a two-star recruit at tight-end and was offered a scholarship by Central Michigan.
After flying back to his home country for his mandatory six-month military service, he caught ten passes in each of his first two seasons with the Chippewas, before making the transition to left tackle. There, he started the following 18 games and quickly showed major growth, as he earned first-team All-MAC honors in 2021.
Coming in at 6’6”, right around 300 pounds, his arms are on the fringe of the 33-inch mark, but he tested in the 79th percentile or better across the board at the combine. Yet, despite being projected to end up as a potential late first-round pick, he fell all the way to the middle of the third (77th overall) in last year’s draft, due to reportedly not being cleared medically by all teams.
Raimann ended up starting 11 games at left tackle – for a Colts team that had otherwise largely ignored that position – of which he played every single snap in all but one of them and was put on the bench following the first two, before settling in on the blindside.
If you just look at the fact he gave up seven sacks and Indy was a bottom-ten rushing offense, after Jonathan Taylor led the NFL in yardage the year prior, there isn’t a whole lot to hang your hat on. However, adding context to the situation, evaluating where we could see growth and what he already showed as a rookie, I still very much believe in his future as a pro.
What really impressed me about Raimann coming out of Central Michigan for being just a two-year player on the O-line was how consistent he was with his aiming points in the run game. He was able to take the appropriate first steps and latch his hands. That also stands out on his pro tape, where you see him consciously add in gather steps dependent on his man’s alignment and similar subtle adjustment.
He’s a very natural bender, being able to create leverage and unlock his hips, while displaying impressive dexterity to stay engaged with defenders trying to dip underneath his shoulder on running blocks and regularly putting them on the turf in the process. And even if his paws slide off a little bit, he’s still able to maintain that distance he’s created out of his stance and wall off opponents.
Raimann is consistently able to earn that space between his outside foot and the edge defender, widening the B-gap on the front side of zone calls and on other drive blocks of gap schemes. If he’s asked to seal or scoop the backside 4i-/5-technique on wide zone, his leg drive to continue riding bodies and not allow them to actually flatten down the line allows him to get the job against some of the more powerful interior defenders in the NFL (such as Cam Heyward).
That Pittsburgh game was the most impressive one I watched, with just one bad/weird play at the end, where he was charged with a sack, as it looked like he was approaching it like quick-game.
Looking at his PFF grades after the two-week break I referenced, he only went below 65.6 once in nine contests and had a pass-blocking grade above 70 in all but two of those, getting penalized five times and surrendering 20 pressures across 345 pass-blocking snaps. He allowed two or fewer pressures in five of those games and never more than four.
Raimann is light on his feet and maintains solid posture, whilst guiding them around the loop. He quickly covers width in his pass-sets to cut off the angle for wide rushers and force them to find an alternative way to win. There are several reps, where he makes defenders truly run around him, which at that point either the ball is out already or they’ve overrun the initial aiming point anyway.
Even if he does get bent over or is forced to re-anchor, the ankle flexion to get his full cleats into the turf and stop the momentum of power rushers allowed him to avoid his quarterback getting hit, the more experience he was able to gain.
Raimann has the foot quickness to mirror inside counters typically and even as he’s a beat late to come off the spiking end on E-T twists where the interior man loops out to the edge, he’s able to still slide in front of them. He also doesn’t panic or overreact when he needs to pick up slot blitzers and makes them run past the quarterback typically
With that being said, Raimann does need to work on using his hands more proactively to brace against power, as you see rushers take a more direct path and attack his chest quite a bit. Especially if there’s a tight-end outside of him, who doesn’t actually chip that wide edge rusher and now that guy has a runway to build up momentum, whilst Raimannn stays on his typical arc, waiting for the opponent to some degree, that can get him into trouble.
Particularly early on, guys like the Dre’Mont Jones and Baron Browning of the Broncos in his first extended action were able to attack the middle of his chest and put him on skates once contact was initiated, pressing him into recovery mode. How he frames rushers generally is really good considering his limited playing experience – he just allows those guys to dictate terms too much when they initiate the contact.
His arms measuring in an eighth of an inch short of the typical benchmark most NFL teams set does hurt him in that regard and generally, as those lanky guys on the edge are able to out-reach him (limiting his effectiveness to some degree as he’s trying to stay in charge of a rep). In the run game that’s certainly less of a factor, although heavy-handed guys who just strike as they come off the ball can shock him every once in a while.
As someone generally rooting for Raimann as a fellow Austrian, I was excited for his opportunity to get playing time early on already, but then very concerned when I watched his first start at Denver (Week 5), when he was on the ground a lot more than you’d wish to see. However, from that point on, the arrow was clearly pointing up once he was inserted back into the lineup a month later.
Jumping forward to Week 12 against Pittsburgh and I thought he looked like a legit franchise guy, taking care of and guiding around studs like Alex Highsmith, Cam Heyward and others. Even for me, it was a bit surprising that he ultimately finished 17th overall among all starting OTs with an overall PFF grade of 77.1.
With Quenton Nelson next to him and that unit overall potentially bouncing back in a major way, if they can just find a solution at right guard, I expect this to be major strength yet again. And with Shane Steichen coming over to call the shots, I think we could see him end up as one of the top ground attacks in football, with a healthy Jonathan Taylor – who people seemingly have forgotten that he led the NFL in rushing in 2021 – and the most athletic quarterback we’ve ever seen in Florida’s Anthony Richardson.
#8, Teven Jenkins, Chicago Bears (Interior O-line)
After a redshirt year as a fairly lowly-regarded three-star recruit at Oklahoma State, Jenkins saw plenty of action as a backup in his debut campaign, before starting all 32 games, with 25 of those at right tackle and seven on the left edge.
After making the move up for Justin Fields in the first round, Bears GM Ryan Poles also traded up 39th overall in order to pair his new QB up with a potential franchise left tackle. Unfortunately, his first year in the NFL turned out to be an absolute catastrophe.
It didn’t even take for the season to roll around, as Jenkins missed all of training camp with a back injury, which he ultimately had surgery on in the middle of August, placing him on IR until week 14. Finally, in the lineup, he was a disappointment on the blindside and trade speculations already began to arise during that offseason.
However, being able to take part in offseason activities ahead of year two and making a position switch, he managed to turn things around in a major way. His PFF grade already saw a massive improvement, from 47.5 in 2021, when he spent 157 snaps at left tackle, up to 80.0 last year, starting all but two of 13 games at right guard.
He was responsible for the same amount of sacks (two), despite playing nearly four times as many snaps, and didn’t allow more than two pressures in a single contest (12 total). Also key for him – he went from seven flags thrown against him across 160 total snaps in 2021 to just two on nearly 600 in his follow-up campaign.
Watching Jenkins in the run game, my lasting image was him getting the train rolling so to speak on zone runs when he helped combo on the nose tackle from the side, regularly bumping that guy over to the play-side A-gap, as he was trying to stay square.
Plus, then he’d peel back on a linebacker in pursuit once they had widened that lane for the back to cut it up behind, where he built up enough thump off a couple of steps to stand up and wall them off. He’s definitely capable of scoop-blocking 2i-techniques on the backside of wide zone or toss plays.
At the same time, we see him get to the outside pec of B-gap defenders on the front side of those perimeter-oriented plays and he can get on his horse to hunt linebackers lined up shaded outside of him when they run stretch to the weak side.
He may not be able to actually pin them due to the leverage advantage towards the sideline, but typically gets them to chase hard that way and then just keeps riding them that way for the back to slice it up behind him. On gap schemes, such as duo or simple dive plays, he can stand up and hold in place three-techniques away from the action.
When he’s closer to the point of attack, he displays a definite understanding of how to approach combos/double-teams, when to stay firm with his teammates, using the appropriate timing to peel off or if a solid bump is enough and he can snatch up the linebacker before shooting the lane. And he opens up freeways behind him kicking out edge defenders, to where the tackle on GT counter actually has to worry about being side-stepped by the linebacker with all space as he wraps around.
The Bears also used their tight ends to some degree to kick out off short motion and had Jenkins coming around behind those guys, where he would put linebackers on skates at times.
A phrase Brandon Thorn of Trench Warfare used when he broke down Jenkins coming out of Oklahoma State was “he puts defenders in a cage.” And while he had some issues in limited time with more vertical pass-sets against NFL speed off the edge, framing rushers accordingly at tackle, you saw that show up inside.
During the early phases of the rush, he will engage in hand-combat to slap away or lift up the wrists of defenders, then bring those guys in close and fit his hands inside their chest, with the elbows tight to his torso.
For being 6’6”, Jenkins has fairly short arms at 33 and ½ inches, but he makes up for it with varied, alternate hand usage and changing up his pass sets. He jumps guys at times to lock them up early, throw in some early stabs to force a reaction or actually gives ground when he’s not as worried about power.
When the Bears were in big-on-big protection to his side and Jenkins was responsible for the three-technique, once he realized that guy sticking his foot in the ground to loop inside, his eyes and hands immediately transition that way, in order to take over the A-gap rusher.
If they slid to his side and they dropped out a mugged-up backer, he would quickly attach to the nose and watch out for potential counters by the edge rusher. Jenkins is looking for work when he’s unoccupied in pass-pro generally and he delivers some disgusting rib shots, particularly as edge defenders try to jump inside late.
Plus, with the way he would ride guys down the line selling zone action, you see the defense have to flow aggressively and guys he’s engaged with get their eyes trapped inside his frame, giving Justin Fields plenty of space rolling or booting the other way.
Overall, I’d say Jenkins ends up on the turf more than you’d like to see. In the run game, it happens at times when he crosses over with the back-side foot trying to gain ground horizontally and putting himself in unstable positions. Meanwhile, in pass-pro I’d say he tends to get his weight shifted a little too far onto his heels, particularly on slide-protections, where he gives some ground vertically as well and has to wait with first contact.
He’s really good at recovering even if rushers establish first meaningful contact with their hands, but not allowing vertical displacement in the first place will be key for him. To my eyes, he did get away with a few more holds, where he generally plays on the fringe of what’s allowed and could see more flags thrown against him, if referee crews lock in on that, but for now, he takes advantage of “cheating” where it’s not seen and understands when he has to let go.
Jenkins isn’t the most light-footed athlete in space, to where he just looks a bit uncomfortable getting out in front on screen passes, being very timid in that regard when they’re designed to his side. Going the other way, where he can more so just chase instead of having to break down and secure guys in the open field, he’s a lot better.
The improvement Jenkins showed with a healthy back and learning a new position in year two was remarkable to watch. He went from more so a speed bump as a rookie, who didn’t seem comfortable when he did finally hit the field, to an above-average guard in 2022, whose presence in the run game especially was felt by opponents.
I believe not only can he take another step now that he’s settled in that spot, but with free agent Nate Davis from the Tennessee Titans and tenth overall pick Darnell Wright from the Tennessee Volunteers, this offensive line could go from one of the weaker units across the NFL to flirting with the top-ten.
Justin Fields probably taking another step now that he’s not running for his life with more weapons around him to spread the field, this offense could finally be fun to watch again – after Fields at least provided highlights as a one-man show last year.
I can’t wait to watch Jenkins obliterate some poor dime backer on third down this season, when they run QB counter against a softbox look, because they have the pass-catching options to make opponents respect their 11 personnel package.
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