2024 AFC Playoff Qualifying Scenarios: Wildcard and postseason brackets following Week 17

With all the Week 17 matchups involving AFC teams done, we are still left with some fascinating scenarios for the playoffs. This was the week that some teams locked their seedings, some improved their standings, and some kept themselves in contention. Here is a look at where everything stands in the AFC going into the final week of the 2024 regular season.

AFC Teams: Confirmed Seeding in the Playoffs

#1 - Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs began Week 17 with a dominant win over the Steelers away from home. That victory gave them a 15-1 record going into Week 18 and sealed the AFC top spot for them. They are now at least two games ahead of the next team with just one more match left to play. They have comfortably been the best franchise in the league this year and their record shows it. They will now have a bye in the Wild Card round and home advantage throughout the playoffs.

#2 - Buffalo Bills

The Bills demolished the Jets with a 40-14 victory in Week 17. New York was supposedly the favorites for the AFC East when the season began but Buffalo had already locked that up long ago. However, what this victory did was take them to a 13-3 record. That is now enough to lock them as the second seed, which means they will have home advantage until the AFC Championship, at least, and might even play that game at home if the Chiefs are upset in the Divisional round.

#4 - Houston Texans

The Texans have a 9-7 record and were beaten comprehensively by the Ravens in Week 17. The 31-2 defeat was a low point for Houston but they are lucky that they play in the AFC South, which does not have any other team with a winning record. They had locked up the division a couple of weeks ago. Since they are at least two games behind the Ravens, who lead the AFC North, the Texans will be the lowest-seeded divisional representative in the AFC playoffs.

AFC Teams: Through to the Playoffs

#3 - Baltimore Ravens

Last season's AFC top seed is through to the playoffs yet again. They trailed through most of the season to the Steelers in their division but their win over Houston last week coupled with Kansas City's victory over Pittsburgh now sees them leading the AFC North with one week to go. They are 11-5 for the season and need a victory over the 3-13 Browns in Week 18 to confirm the third seed.

#5 - Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers have a 10-6 record and have lost three straight games to fall down to second position in the AFC North. However, they would have more wins against their common opponents and a better conference record than the Ravens if Baltimore loses in Week 18 to Cleveland and Pittsburgh can defeat the 8-8 Bengals. Such a scenario would see Mike Tomlin's team finish with the top spot in their division and the third seed that comes with it.

#6 - Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers also have a 10-6 record and are back in the playoffs after missing out last season. If the Steelers lose their last game against the Bengals and they can pull off a victory against the 4-12 Raiders, they will come up to the fifth seed. They cannot win the AFC West because the Chiefs have taken care of that. They also cannot tumble to the seventh seed if the Broncos make it through because Los Angeles has defeated Denver twice this season, giving them the tiebreaker.

AFC Teams: In the Hunt after Week 17

#7 - Denver Broncos

The Broncos occupy the final AFC playoff spot. They have a 9-7 record and they know that a win over the Chiefs will secure the seventh seed for them. The good news is that they will likely play against a Kansas City team that is resting their starters because they have wrapped up the conference. The bad news is that they are still the two-time reigning Super Bowl champions and beating them will not be easy.

Bubble - Miami Dolphins

If the Broncos do not win their final game, the Dolphins are the favorites to go through. They are 8-8 currently and need to defeat the 4-12 Jets to end up with a 9-7 record. They hold the tiebreaker over Denver in that case because their conference record is 6-5 compared to 5-6 for Sean Payton's team and both are playing AFC teams in the final week.

Bubble - Cincinnati Bengals

If the Broncos and the Dolphins both fail to win their final matchups, then the 8-8 Bengals can sneak into the playoffs. That would leave them tied at 9-7 with Denver and they hold the tiebreaker over them because of their Week 17 overtime win.

AFC Playoff Scenarios

Based on that, we used Sportskeeda's Playoff Predictor to run some scenarios. We know the top seed, Kansas City Chiefs, will have a bye in the Wild Card round. The second-seeded Bills will play the seventh seed, the winners of the AFC North will play the sixth seed, and the Texans will take on the fifth seed.

Sportskeeda Playoff Predictor Simulation

In the scenario above, the Broncos, Bengals, and Dolphins all lose in Week 18 to maintain the seventh seed for Denver. Pittsburgh overcomes Cincinnati but remains the fifth seed as the Ravens do their job against the Browns.