3 Reasons why Aaron Rodgers won't be NFL MVP in 2022-23 season

Aaron Rodgers won back-to-back NFL MVP awards in 2020 and 2021, yet the Green Bay Packers quarterback is unlikely to make it a hat-trick.

Rodgers has lived through yet another tumultuous offseason in which his future in the NFL has been brought under the microscope.

Initially, it was thought he wanted a trade away from Wisconsin. However, the number of possible destinations quickly dried up as the Denver Broncos and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers solidified their quarterback room for the 2022 season.

Retirement was also on the table for the 38-year-old, although this route always felt like more of a threat to the Packers than a realistic possibility.

Yet, at the end of it all, Rodgers ended up right where he started: stuck in Green Bay on a major new contract that will see him once again take charge under center in Green and Gold.

While fantastic financially, this move had some consequences, with Davante Adams needing to be traded to keep the Packers in a safe cap situation. The irony is that this makes Rodgers’ job all the more difficult this season.

Here are three reasons Aaron Rodgers won’t win the 2022 MVP award.

#1 – Aaron Rodgers’ offense in Green Bay is much weaker

Cleveland Browns v Green Bay Packers

Davante Adams’ departure will have a far greater impact on the Green Bay offense than people realize. Yes, everyone knows he is one of the NFL’s elite wide receivers, but there are few other players that the quarterback has as much confidence in as he had in the Las Vegas Raiders star.

Adams’ numbers in the last two seasons have been extraordinary: catching 29 touchdowns in two seasons and registering over 2,900 yards.

This has been a huge reason why Rodgers has been able to play at an MVP level. If you don’t have a reliable target to catch your passes, you’re often nothing as a quarterback.

There will still be offensive options for the veteran to utilize, not least Randall Cobb, Sammy Watkins, and rookie Christian Watson. Although, none of those names are guaranteed elite receivers.

Rodgers will have to take far more time on the ball surveying the field, which could lead to problems with his productivity and fitness. Injuries have plagued the Green Bay leader before when he hasn’t had a reliable main target to go to, and the seemingly telepathic connection he had with Adams meant he rarely had to hold on to the ball too long.

Without Adams’ reliable service, it’s almost impossible to see the quarterback putting up MVP numbers. The cast around him just isn’t strong enough.

#2 – At 38 years old, Rodgers isn’t going to get better

American Century Championship - Round Two

Two of Aaron Rodgers’ best years coming at the age of 36 and 37, respectively, is somewhat rare. Quarterback is one of the few positions where veterans can still star in the NFL, with experience helping their overall game-management. Rodgers is now in a battle with time, and it is a battle that no professional athlete has ever won or will ever win.

He will be 38 by the time the 2022 NFL season begins and will turn 39 midway through it. There is no escaping the fact that the quarterback simply isn’t going to get better. Physically, he is now on a decline, which is inevitable, and rarely do players improve after hitting 38.

Tom Brady would be a rare example of where a player has kept playing to such a high level into his forties. But even so, he has lost some of his qualities over the years and certainly isn’t playing better than when he was in New England.

With a weaker receiving corps and another year of NFL football tagged onto the body, Rodgers is due a dip in performance levels. We’re likely to see that in 2022, even if it is marginal, which would still be enough to knock him off the MVP course.

#3 – Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson are on the comeback trail

Kansas City Chiefs v Baltimore Ravens

2021 was a disappointing year for both Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson. The former saw a downturn in team production with Kansas City, while the latter had to deal with an injury-hit campaign.

Both players are heading into the 2022 season with a chip on their shoulders and a desire to prove doubters wrong.

Jackson has been criticized a lot in the offseason, especially by those with historical ties to the Baltimore Ravens. Yet, he has already won one MVP award and plays such an exciting style of football that he can’t ever be ruled out. A healthy Jackson is a true weapon, one that can disrupt defenses.

Mahomes is arguably the most dynamic thrower of a football the NFL has ever seen. He makes things happen, which takes games away from opposing teams, as the San Francisco 49ers can attest to.

The loss of Tyreek Hill will hurt the Chiefs, but after a down season in 2021, Mahomes will be back in top form, and he still has great receiving options. Travis Kelce, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling will all provide Mahomes with options to put up MVP numbers, while Jackson can do that on his own with his rushing.

Aaron Rodgers doesn’t have these same weapons and options, and it’s difficult to see him being able to outperform the NFL’s most electric and young quarterbacks.