3 reasons why Bills will beat Chiefs: Odds, key matchups and player stats

The Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs will clash in the conference championship round of the NFL Playoffs. The winner will represent the AFC in the Super Bowl as the Chiefs are seeking to become the first-ever team to three-peat.

They will first need to get past the Bills, who already defeated them earlier this season. It was the only game that Patrick Mahomes lost as a starter.

The previous result may be why Buffalo are just 1.5 point underdogs in their trip to Kansas City. It could be a high-scoring game, with the total set a 47.5 points, as it often has been when these two teams battle.

The Chiefs will be slight favorites when the game kicks off, but several factors suggest that they could be upset in this matchup. Here are three reasons why the Bills may finally get past them.

Bills' reasons why they will upset the Chiefs in Conference Championship

Josh Allen (image credit: getty)

#1 - Josh Allen's massive stats vs Chiefs

Josh Allen is one of the favorites, along with Lamar Jackson, to be named the NFL MVP for the 2024 season. He has been spectacular all season long, but his career numbers against the Chiefs have been just as impressive. He has recorded 22 total touchdowns in eight career games against them while averaging 258 passing yards and 56 rushing yards in those matchups. He also won four of those games, and while he is 0-3 against Mahomes in the playoffs, this could be the year he finally gets past him.

#2 - Point differential 2024

One of the most telling stats for how good any NFL team has been in a season is their point differential. Buffalo ranked third this year with a +157, which was also the best in the AFC. They were nearly 100 points better than the Chiefs, who ranked ninth with a +59 differential. This shows that the Bills were more dominant this season despite having an inferior record.

#3 - Chiefs WRs struggling

In their win over the Houston Texans in the divisional round, the Chiefs heavily relied on their tight ends and running backs, as Xavier Worthy was the only wide receiver to record a reception. They leaned on Travis Kelce in the passing game, but the last time he faced the Bills, he only recorded eight yards. If they can contain Kelce again, paired with receivers' struggles, the Bills may be able to shut down their entire passing attack.