AFC Playoff Picture Week 17: Dolphins dominate, Joe Flacco's Browns keep marching, Texans hang by thread

Owing to the last string of outcomes of the games played in Week 16 thus far, the AFC playoff picture in the league is starting to take shape. The Miami Dolphins were able to achieve a statement victory over the Dallas Cowboys at Hard Rock Stadium, indicating that they are serious competitors for the 2024 Super Bowl.

Additionally, the Cleveland Browns won in Week 16, increasing their chances of making the playoffs. The Browns were brilliant against the Houston Texans and they rank among the most dangerous teams in the AFC. In conjunction with our NFL Playoff Predictor, here's a look at different scenarios and see how they affect the postseason picture & explore Playoff Chances for detailed insights on your favorite team's or rival's playoff prospects!

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AFC Playoff Picture heading into Week 17

Miami Dolphins

Miami Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa

The Miami Dolphins finally prevailed over a team with a winning record in Week 16 when they defeated the Dallas Cowboys. With that victory, the Dolphins were also able to guarantee their spot in the postseason. They have also kept up the pressure on the Baltimore Ravens atop the AFC rankings while maintaining their lead over the Buffalo Bills in the divisional battle.

The Dolphins will guarantee home-field advantage and a bye in the opening round of the playoffs if they can win their final two games of the season against the Buffalo Bills and the Baltimore Ravens.

The Dolphins have now made the postseason in each of their last two seasons since head coach Mike McDaniel took over, following a five-season drought. The youthful coach has now become the first head coach to guide the Dolphins to consecutive postseason berths since Dave Wannstedt in 2001.

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Cleveland Browns

Cleveland Browns Playoff Picture

The Cleveland Browns are 10-5 on the season after defeating the Houston Texans in Week 16. They are getting close to locking up a postseason spot despite starting quarterback Deshaun Watson missing most of the season due to injury. The team tried three other quarterbacks before deciding on Joe Flacco, who has made the role his with his performances.

The Browns needed some assistance from other teams in the league to solidify their playoff hopes going into Week 16. However, after the Pittsburgh Steelers and Buffalo Bills won on Saturday, the Browns would have to rely on themselves.

Cleveland has a great chance of making it to the postseason, and this stands at almost 99 percent after their Week 16 victory. Although the Browns have a mathematical chance of winning the AFC North, the Baltimore Ravens are a game ahead of them.

The Browns must defeat the New York Jets and Cincinnati Bengals in their next two games to have a chance to win the division, and they must also hope that the Ravens lose multiple games.

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Houston Texans

Houston Texans QB Case Keenum

The Houston Texans, despite their disappointing Week 16 loss to the Cleveland Browns, still have a chance to qualify for the postseason.

If the Texans win their final two regular season games, they could be able to slip into the playoffs. Houston will be in a position to clinch its first postseason trip in four years with wins over the Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans.

Even if the Texans miss the postseason, DeMeco Ryans has done a fantastic job leading the team. While that may be the case, fans are optimistic that C.J. Stroud can return in Week 17 and push them to two wins and either a Wild Card berth or the AFC South title.

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Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes

The Kansas City Chiefs lost 20-14 at home to the Las Vegas Raiders on Monday, which prevented them from clinching the AFC West.

Despite their defeat in Week 16, the Chiefs remain atop the AFC West standings, leading the Denver Broncos by a margin of two games. As of right now, Kansas City is the third seed in the AFC and has lost any possibility of winning the top spot.

With just two games left in the regular season against the Cincinnati Bengals and Los Angeles Chargers, the Chiefs appear to be moving in the wrong way, which makes their Christmas Day loss troubling. In the past four games, the club has only won one.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Jacksonville Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence

The Jacksonville Jaguars' chances of qualifying for the postseason were marginally reduced to 65.9% after their Week 16 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

If the Jaguars defeat the Tennessee Titans and Carolina Panthers in their upcoming games, they still have a chance to qualify for the postseason. But after four straight losses, the squad is in disarray, and quarterback Trevor Lawrence's ailments are worrisome.

Buffalo Bills

Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen

After defeating the Los Angeles Chargers 24–22 in Week 16, the Buffalo Bills are now in control of their own fate.

If the Bills defeat the New England Patriots and Miami Dolphins in their next two games, they will secure a postseason berth following the Cincinnati Bengals' defeat to the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 16.

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Overview AFC Playoff Picture after Week 16

1. Baltimore Ravens (12-3) - First Round Bye

2. Miami Dolphins (11-4)

3. Kansas City Chiefs (9-6)

4. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-7)

5. Cleveland Browns (10-5)

6. Buffalo Bills (9-6)

7. Houston Texans (8-7)

Still in contention

8. Indianapolis Colts (8-7)

9. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-7)

10. Cincinnati Bengals (8-7)

11. Las Vegas Raiders (7-8)

12. Denver Broncos (7-8)

Eliminated: New York Jets (6-9), Tennessee Titans (5-10), Los Angeles Chargers (5-10), New England Patriots (4-11)