AFC’s No. 1 Seed Chances: Ravens, Dolphins and Browns playoff scenarios to first-round bye

The Baltimore Ravens have put the league on notice after dominating the San Francisco 49ers in their Week 16 Monday Night Football clash. But while the Ravens have clinched a postseason berth, they are not yet guaranteed of the American Football Conference’s number one seed.

At 11-4, the Miami Dolphins are just one game behind the leaders. Meanwhile, the Ravens’ division rivals, the Cleveland Browns, still have a chance to be the top team, but with the help of the other two squads. Here’s how each team can gain a Wild Card round bye and home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs:

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AFC No. 1 seed playoff chances

Every game counts for the three teams mentioned, especially the Browns, who are still in danger of missing the postseason. But for now, they are the AFC’s No. 5 with two regular season games left.

Meanwhile, the Ravens and the Dolphins have better odds of finishing at No. 1. However, getting to the top means defeating the other team during their Week 17 clash at Baltimore.

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#1. Ravens' No. 1 seed scenarios

Head coach John Harbaugh and the Baltimore Ravens sideline during their Week 16 road game against the San Francisco 49ers.

Defeating the Dolphins in Week 17 is the easiest route for Baltimore to clinch the AFC’s top seed. That result will extend their lead to two games and limit Miami’s maximum number of wins to 12.

But if the Dolphins beat the Ravens, Baltimore can still clinch the number one seed by winning their Week 18 game against the Pittsburgh Steelers. That could be a challenging proposition because they already lost to them earlier in the season. Likewise, the Steelers will likely need another victory over them to clinch a Wild Card spot.

If Baltimore loses in Week 17 but wins their season finale, they hope the Dolphins will lose to the Buffalo Bills in their season finale. That outcome will give Miami a 12-5 regular season standing while Baltimore is at 13-4.

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#2. Dolphins' No. 1 seed scenarios

The Miami Dolphins still have a shot at the AFC's number-one seed.

The marching order for the Dolphins is simple: win their remaining two games to overtake the Ravens for the AFC’s No. 1 seed. It’s easier said than done because the Ravens are confident after demolishing the San Francisco 49ers on the road.

Meanwhile, the Bills have won three straight games coming into Week 17. But defeating Baltimore in the penultimate week will give the Miami Dolphins the edge despite identical 12-4 marks.

However, their push for the top seed will be for nothing if Baltimore beats Pittsburgh while they lose to Buffalo in Week 18. A win over the Bills and a Baltimore loss to the Steelers will give them identical 13-4 records. Miami gains the upper hand and the No. 1 seed because they defeated the Ravens in Week 17.

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#3. Browns' No. 1 seed scenarios

Can the Cleveland Browns' elite defense help them earn the AFC's top seed?

The Cleveland Browns' path to the No.1 seed is the toughest among the three teams. They must win their remaining two games while hoping for Baltimore and Miami to lose in Weeks 17 and 18.

If that happens, Miami will become a Wild Card team at 11-6 because the Bills will beat them twice this season. Meanwhile, Cleveland and Baltimore will have identical 12-5 records at the top of the AFC North.

#Update: Browns have clinched a playoff spot and improved to 11-5 on the season with their win over the New York Jets in Week 17.

Tiebreaker rules apply to determine the division champions and, in effect, the AFC’s No. 1 seed. According to the NFL, they break the tie between two clubs within the division by head-to-head matchup. However, Baltimore and Cleveland are 1-1 this season.

Therefore, they will determine the better team through winning percentage against teams within the division. Both teams are 3-2 and have one division game left before Week 17.

If the Browns win over the Cincinnati Bengals while Baltimore loses to Pittsburgh in Week 18, the Browns will claim the upper hand with a 12-5 record and the AFC’s top seed. However, losing to the New York Jets in Week 17 gives them six losses and ends their quest for the No. 1 spot.