An in-depth preview of Super Bowl LVII: Breaking down the X's and O's between Chiefs and Eagles

Super Bowl preview: Chiefs offense vs. Eagles defense

Chiefs' Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce

Kansas City obviously led the league with 29.2 points per game during the regular season, averaging 2.71 points per drive. They also averaged 0.3 yards more per play than any other team (6.4). Their offense was easily number one in DVOA (25.2%) and EPA per play (0.179).

While many still look at the Chiefs as this uber-explosive aerial attack that constantly stresses defenses vertically, they’ve really become a much more efficient machine as a unit. Patrick Mahomes finished the regular season only 23rd in intended air yards per pass attempt (7.2) and he was second in YAC per completion (6.6).

In part that has been due to teams feeling more comfortable blitzing and playing man against this group of receivers, but Mahomes has shown much maturity this season. Especially getting to his checkdown or outlet when the defense was falling off in deep zone coverages. With opponents bracketing Travis Kelce at a high rate, they’ve needed to find other solutions against the looks they’re presented with.

KC is one of the best groups at utilizing stacks and bunches, in combination with rub-routes, to give their receivers advantages against man-coverage, while being unique in the way they create voids against zone, by letting guys push straight at safeties and forcing them to match, along with attacking the rules of coverages.

Where the KC offense has added another dimension this year is their traditional run game. Altogether, they finished the regular season sixth in rushing success rate (44.5%). That’s actually slightly lower than 2021, but their top two backs this year average 4.63 yards compared to 4.09 yards per rush.

Isaiah Pacheco has given this group a physical presence, who they hand the ball off to a lot more from under-center this season. That young man runs with an aggression and violence that this team has been missing in past years. he also has the legit burst to threaten the corner and clear the second level if the backside doesn’t cover enough ground laterally.

While they do run some zone concepts (especially in combination with their RPO game), what Andy Reid and Eric Bienemy excel at is using angles and drawing up gap-schemes, including multiple pullers (such as power and counter from different personnel sets). A key ingredient to that is the variety in their usage of tight-ends.

Their 13 personnel (three TEs) in particular is a weapon for them, as they can analyze how opposing defenses match them. Depending on that, get Travis Kelce, Noah Gray and Jody Fortson in favorable matchups in the passing game, or take advantage of pulling smaller bodies into the box.

Examining the Chiefs' offensive line, with Orlando Brown at left tackle, they can cover up guys on the front-side to string out lateral plays. And between the interior three of Joe Thuney, Creed Humphrey and Trey Smith, they’re all more than comfortable being utilized as pullers. Smith is the biggest mauler on down-blocks and the other two execute reach- and seal-blocks very effectively.

Andrew Wylie at right tackle may be the weak-link of that group, but he’s the most experienced player in that system (now in his fifth season with the Chiefs and 69 starts to his resume). As a team, they’ve averaged 3.4 yards before contact on the ground.

Kansas City Chiefs v Tampa Bay Buccaneers

As far as the pass game is concerned, the O-line was charged with the third-fewest sacks allowed (26) and while Mahomes is close to average in pressure rate (19.4%). If you take that number in relation to time spent in the pocket before the ball comes out (2.6 seconds), he’d be tied for the sixth-highest rate.

Even though I would challenge the way ESPN calculates this, they have the Chiefs with by far the highest pass-block win rate in 2022 at 75%. And looking at their two playoff games, Mahomes has only been pressured on 18.8 and 10.2% respectively. The way this unit handles games up front, sorts out simulated pressure and passes off twists is very impressive.

Finally, for KC’s offense, since Mahomes was put under center, they’ve been one of the best situational offenses, finishing top-three in third down percentage each of the past five years.

They finished the 2022 season second in third (48.7%), fourth down (75.0%) and red-zone percentage (69.4%) each. Over their five most recent games in particular, they’ve converted 82.3% of their red-zone trips into six points. That’s a result of Andy Reid’s willingness to delve into all kinds of creative play-designs, Patrick Mahomes’ magic off script and the mind-meld you see between him and Travis Kelce in those condensed spaces.

Whether it’s some full-house sets (where anybody in the backfield could receive the snap), running “Ring around the Rosie” or any of their different shovel pass variations they throw out, they’re a unique group to prepare for. Then of course you have the best QB-to-pass-catcher combinations in the game, where Mahomes and Kelce can make up stuff on the fly and see that condensed space very similarly. This allows them to cash in even when the defense seemingly does everything right.

Philadelphia Eagles defensive huddle

Now, switching over to the Eagles defense, they’ve been one of the more consistent and at times dominant units in the league. On average, they’ve allowed just over 20 points per game, with seven each in their two playoff games (even though you can argue the Giants were certainly outmatched and the 49ers played large stretches with a quarterback who couldn’t actually throw the ball).

Nevertheless, they finished the regular season at number six in defensive DVOA (-9.7%) and forced the fifth-most takeaways in the league (27). Under defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon, Philly has seen an overhaul of defensive principles to some degree compared to 2021.

While they still run a lot of zone-coverage, they do a much better job of squeezing down passing windows and letting their safeties attack forward in quarters, not nearly giving as much easy access to the middle of the field. And with the addition of Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, they can change up the picture from when the ball is snapped, rotating him towards the deep middle (a role he hasn’t tasked with since his college days).

As far as blitz rate is concerned, they’ve increased from 31st (17.4%) to 18th (22.1%), in large part due to Haason Reddick being on the field as a hybrid linebacker, who they rush along with the four down-linemen a lot of times.

Philadelphia has been particularly effective against the pass, being responsible for an NFL-low 4.9 net yards per dropback. Starting corners Darius Slay and James Bradberry have surrendered passer ratings of 83.9 and 51.6 respectively, with three picks each to their names. Both understand very well to play to their leverage and funnel vertical routes to the safeties inside of them.

While Marcus Epps is better at driving on routes and buzzing down as a flat defender or robber, CGJ has really capitalized of those opportunities to make plays on the ball (being tied for the lead-league with six interceptions, despite missing five games).

Meanwhile, on the second level, T.J. Edwards has had the best season of his career, in terms of how quickly he IDs and triggers on run schemes, but also his usage on passing downs. That’s where pairing him up with Kyzir White has reaped major benefits. He's the one matched up with backs a lot of times in cover-four/-six on the weakside, as he’s right on par with Bradberry on the perimeter, holding opponents to just 4.4 yards per target.

Of course, a major reason this group has been so much better on the back-end is thanks to the pressure they create up front. The Eagles recorded the third-most sacks in NFL history (70) behind only the ’85 and ’86 Bears respectively, and they were only 0.1% behind the Cowboys with a pressure rate of 25.5 percent.

Looking at ESPN’s pass-rush win rate metric, Philly has the edge rusher with the second-best mark in Haason Reddick (28%) and an IDL in Javon Hargrave, who’s tied for second at his position (17%). They keep those guys fresh as well, as they have ten guys playing at least 16% of snaps, if you count Reddick (who led them at just under 74%).

At times this season they’ve had some issues this season stopping the run, due to some of the front mechanics, but also some injuries along the D-line. Now, with some of the veteran additions, those have been largely ironed out and they can bring those guys in waves.

Chiefs offense vs. Eagles defense

Since I just talked about the trenches, why not start by breaking down how these two sides match up?

Looking at Brandon Thorn’s D-line rankings, the Eagles D-line was at the top of the league. But the Chiefs finished the season as the sixth-best O-line themselves, and their interior three is as good as any out there right now.

Their tackles are closer to average, with Haason Reddick having a significant advantage over right tackle Andrew Wylie, who was responsible for nine sacks and had seven accepted penalties in 2022. However, what Andy Reid can do in terms of mitigating any disadvantages on the edges is remarkable.

I think back to the Chiefs’ trip to San Francisco and how much they slowed down Nick Bosa, in terms of not being allowed to attack and having to process too much information. And we’ve seen this group make the heads on linebackers spin on several occasions throughout the years, with misdirection, eye-candy and a diverse screen game.

Philly also led the NFL with 97 tackles for loss during the regular season, but I have a tough time seeing Kansas City go laterally a whole lot and allowing those guys on the other side to defeat single-blocks. Rather, I think they’ll use that aggressiveness against them on trap, wham and counter plays.

The Eagles finished the regular season 23rd in rushing success rate (43.2%) and EPA per rush (-0.023). Especially when KC goes to 12 personnel, the tendencies for Philly would say that they’ll counter five-man surfaces. When the 49ers put both tight-ends to one side, we saw Kyzir White actually move over the wing in more of “penny” front, where Edwards is the only linebacker behind it. That’s where Reid puts a lot of pressure on the opposition, with being corrected in reading their keys.

Philadelphia Eagles v New York Giants

Going back to that NFC title game, backup Josh Johnson – as long as he was available, ran himself into trouble, getting wide against looping D-tackles and drifting too deep at times. That won’t happen with this version of Patrick Mahomes, who is one of the niftiest quarterbacks at pocket navigation in the NFL today. How much he can manipulate rush lanes and potentially deliver off-script with that banged-up ankle will be a major factor.

From a coverage perspective, the most interesting thing will be if DC Jonathan Gannon can change up the picture enough post-snap to make Mahomes hold onto the field. Or if KC will be able to dictate what they’ll face, in particular considering I thought motions typically forced them to simplify things and use a lot of cover-four or -six.

Because of how much the Chiefs want to attack between the numbers (with heavier tight-end usage and the addition of Juju Smith-Schuster as a “power slot” which they haven’t had prior to his arrival), they can lessen the impact of those two great corners on the other side. The second thing will be how they approach the usage of tight-ends and Travis Kelce in particular.

Could we see Chauncey Gardner-Johnson more heavily deployed in the slot, similar to their most recent matchup? Or does Gannon use the two weeks of preparation to install some designer coverages for designated passing situations?